Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at Midnight EDT)

#221 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 31, 2021 10:33 pm

typhoonty wrote:My annual last second post.

20-10-5 ACE 165

Stay safe everyone.


Done.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at Midnight EDT)

#222 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 31, 2021 10:56 pm

18-10-4, ACE 150 (Final)

I'm #20 on the list, just to make sure there's no duplicates
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at Midnight EDT)

#223 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon May 31, 2021 10:57 pm

17/8/3 with 143 ACE final
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at Midnight EDT)

#224 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon May 31, 2021 10:59 pm

buzzer beater entry:

17/8/4 152 ACE

final of course
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at Midnight EDT)

#225 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon May 31, 2021 11:00 pm

Image

Midnight has arrived in US-East, bringing this year's edition of the Storm2K hurricane season numbers poll to a close. Users are generally suggesting an above normal season in the Atlantic this year. The average guess of 18.7 total named storms is actually the second highest in the history of the poll, trailing behind only 2006. The numbers of hurricanes (8.9) and major hurricanes (4.1) are closer to the polling means since 2004 (7.6 and 3.6, respectively). The expected ACE of 154.8 is the 5th highest in the history of the poll. 2011, 2001, and 2000 are comparable years to the figures given here.

Definitions for hyperactive, above average, and average seasons, and calculations for expected ACE have been recomputed to reflect the 1951-2020 standards used by the Climate Prediction Center, so those values may be slightly different than previous graphics I've posted. A definition of expected ACE is available here. For those curious, the updated values are now 1.9 ACE per tropical storm, 8.0 ACE per non-major hurricane, and 23.7 ACE per major hurricane. This only changed the expected ACE for this poll by +0.02, which is insubstantial.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at Midnight EDT)

#226 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 31, 2021 11:00 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:17/8/3 with 143 ACE final


Photofinish but you are there as #95.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Closes at Midnight EDT)

#227 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 31, 2021 11:03 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:buzzer beater entry:

17/8/4 152 ACE

final of course


Made it as #96.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Has closed)

#228 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 31, 2021 11:05 pm

The 2021 poll ties with the 2020 one with 96 participants. Good luck to all and we will see at the end of season which member or members got close to what the season had. Thank you TheAustinMan for the stats.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll

#229 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:58 am

With one month left for the 2021 season to end, so far member #19-HurricaneEnzo is the closest from the actual numbers 21/7/4 as he has 21/8/4. Let's see how it ends.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=121766
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll

#230 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 01, 2021 7:26 pm

Well, I'm not going to win this one, even with the ACE :lol:
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll

#231 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:53 am

Well, with a season that's 21/7/4 and 145.1 up to Nov. 9... I doubt it will make hyperactive season, and when you think that without Sam, just by itself, it would have been around 91 and "near normal" as a season, (yes I know "but we DID have Sam--I know that, just making a point) and no Category 5 storms for the first time in six years (2015 I believe) I think this one will have surprised a lot of us. I think I predicted an ACE of 160-165... and perhaps a couple of TS's in November could push it up a bit, (I believe Wanda pushed it up from the 130's into the 140's.) I can't see it making extremely active, or "hyperactive" as seasons go. It also was a welcome reduction on landfalling hurricanes in the United States,(or anywhere for that matter) albeit Ida messed us up enough, and I ought to know since I was in that not very lady-like storm's NE eyewall for a while, losing my roof. It'll be interesting to see what predictions come out for 2022. Since we now name subtropicals and frontal lows as they push into the mid-Atlantic regions and take on more TS characteristics, I don't see how we'll ever see a season below 19 or 20 named storms again. That's not a slight on the system, it's a kudo for extremely better means of detection as opposed to those of decades past. One can only wonder, had we had the technology we have today, and named systems in the subtropics in 1933, what that number might have been. If I missed something or got something wrong, I know I can count on someone in here to point it out! :wink:
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

#232 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:00 am

We have a member that had a very close call and was #19 HurricaneEnzo that had 21/8/4 vs final numbers of 21/7/4. Congratulations to him and to the rest, thank you for participating and get ready for the 2022 season. Poll opens as usual on April 1rst.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

#233 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:40 am

cycloneye wrote:We have a member that had a very close call and was #19 HurricaneEnzo that had 21/8/4 vs final numbers of 21/7/4. Congratulations to him and to the rest, thank you for participating and get ready for the 2022 season. Poll opens as usual on April 1rst.


Boom baby! 99% luck and maybe 1% knowledge :lol:
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

#234 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:30 pm

If you cut a few of those very short-lived storms, my forecast would have been very close to the actual totals. :)

I digress though, congrats to Enzo for winning this year!
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

#235 Postby chaser1 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:00 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
cycloneye wrote:We have a member that had a very close call and was #19 HurricaneEnzo that had 21/8/4 vs final numbers of 21/7/4. Congratulations to him and to the rest, thank you for participating and get ready for the 2022 season. Poll opens as usual on April 1rst.


Boom baby! 99% luck and maybe 1% knowledge :lol:


That's damn near "nailing it" in my book! Give yourself a bit more credit for it too :wink: Besides, I'd rather be any of the past decades lottery winners then all the geniuses that attempted and failed!
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

#236 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:11 pm

Mine would been closer if it was not for those 'Shorties' :lol:
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

#237 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:21 pm

It wasn't looking good for my prediction until 'The Great Lull' of 2021 occurred. Thought we would end up well over 21 with the pace we were on. Then somebody turned out the lights lol
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: Closest was #19 HurricaneEnzo

#238 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:31 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:It wasn't looking good for my prediction until 'The Great Lull' of 2021 occurred. Thought we would end up well over 21 with the pace we were on. Then somebody turned out the lights lol


Good point about the October/November lull.
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