Strong Solar Storm Underway - Seismic Activity Possible

[GCANE]

Very powerful X6.9 flare and strong proton & electron flux


Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 70
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 09 0812 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Aug 09 0748 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Aug 09 0805 UTC
End Time: 2011 Aug 09 0808 UTC
X-ray Class: X6.9
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N17W69
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong


Space Weather Message Code: ALTPC0
Serial Number: 32
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 09 0840 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2011 Aug 09 0840 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1835
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 09 0511 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1834
Begin Time: 2011 Aug 08 1315 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3581 pfu

Comment: 09/0500 = 1089 2MeV flux

[GCANE]

Looks like the X6.9 flare came from sun-spot 11263 which is just turning the limb.

[Nightwatch]

Isn't a X 6.9 very rare? Thought the X2.2 in february was the biggest flare in recent years?

What if this one was earth-directed?

[GCANE]

Isn't a X 6.9 very rare? Thought the X2.2 in february was the biggest flare in recent years?

What if this one was earth-directed?

Yes it is very rare. I checked SOHO and it doesn't look like there was a CME associated with.

Need to wait a couple hours to see what data comes in.

[GCANE]

http://www.earthquakesummary.info/

CARIBBEAN SHAKEN BY MORE EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 08, 2011

The activation of the Caribbean Antilles which began with an M 5.0-5.3 in the Saint Lucia region yesterday continued today with earthquakes of M 4.5 in Barbados of the Windward Islands and M 4.4 in the Dominica Region of the Leeward Islands as well as an M 3.8 in Dominican Republic – part of a strong activation of that region which began when Emily passed through the region two days ago. These events appear to be migrating up to plate boundary to the north and may be preceding a strong earthquake in the Virgin Island to Puerto Rico regions. This activation may be related to the strong geomagnetic storm which occurred three days beginning when this area was subsolar. An M3.5 solar flare today would have reinforced this triggering effect in the region. That flare occurred at 18:10 UT when the region was near sub-solar. The earthquake of M 3.8 in the Dominican Republic hit several minutes after this flare at 18:35 UT and was likely triggered by it. A second M2.5 solar flare hit at 04:00 UT while the region of Dominica was direct anti-solar, another time of maximum Solar Flare effects (SFE). The earthquake in the Dominica region occurred an hour later and also was likely triggered by this solar flare. The earthquake in Barbados is the strongest in that region since a similar M 4.5-4.6 earthquake hit on May 24, 2009. Like the Dominica event, it is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the strong earthquake of M 7.6 in the Kermadec Islands last month. The Barbados event is also located at exactly 90.00 degrees from the M 7.4 in the Fox Islands, the last major earthquake in the western Hemisphere.

[GCANE]

Movie of X6.9 flare from sunspot 11263 captured from SolarSoft.

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_110809_012104_8601/www/SSW_cutout_20110809T0743-20110809T0843_AIA_211-193-171_N17W71_ssw_cutout_20110809_074305_aia_335_N17W71_20110809_074303_j.html

[Nightwatch]

what would a CME/X6.9 would have done with Earth ?

[GCANE]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6-0mtCv6yQ&feature=channel_video_title[/youtube]

[GCANE]

what would a CME/X6.9 would have done with Earth ?

Good question.

There was a lot of speculation that the X2.2 in March set off the M9 Japan quake.

There is a big difference however between now and then.

In March, the ionosphere was also showing the presence of standing 2.5Hz ELF waves.

This time there are none.

[GCANE]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHWQj8xoDjo&feature=channel_video_title[/youtube]

[Nightwatch]

Interesting and fascinating theory.
I really wait and see if a big seismic event will happen beween now and the 15th. Offcourse it's been a while since we had a 7+ and they are common each year, but never placed a link between solarflare and quakes/volcanoes.

My knowledge in this subject is rather small tho, dunno what standing 2.5Hz ELF waves are. Sorry

[GCANE]

Interesting and fascinating theory.
I really wait and see if a big seismic event will happen beween now and the 15th. Offcourse it's been a while since we had a 7+ and they are common each year, but never placed a link between solarflare and quakes/volcanoes.

My knowledge in this subject is rather small tho, dunno what standing 2.5Hz ELF waves are. Sorry

ELF is Extremely Low Frequency and is in the range 1 to 10Hz.

They can be seen on the Gakona, Alaska magnetometer which measures magnetic waves in the ionosphere and plots frequency components versus time.

The measurement is broken down into three directions of the magnetic field:

east-west
north-south
vertical

The east-west component is what is usually seen as the strongest.

This link shows the real-time data:

http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/scmag/disp ... orm=Update


Here are a couple references concerning the Japan quake and the ionosphere:

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1105/1105.2841.pdf

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/ar ... /?p1=blogs

[GCANE]

The area NW of PR is the most unstable.



http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 67_eqs.php

[Nightwatch]

Hmm... i had followed a guy from quakeprediction who also tried to use Heat/Friction to predict certain quakes in the LA area and Japan. So far, havent really seen him to be correct.

It's too bad I dont know much about this stuff. Still learning

Is there any new data available yet? No CME? No danger to earth?

[GCANE]

Hmm... i had followed a guy from quakeprediction who also tried to use Heat/Friction to predict certain quakes in the LA area and Japan. So far, havent really seen him to be correct.

It's too bad I dont know much about this stuff. Still learning

Is there any new data available yet? No CME? No danger to earth?

Looks like it was directed away from earth and the Stereo-A satellite could get a glancing blow.

Here's the latest model:

[GCANE]

The flare must have reset the Lasco electronics.

There was a disruption of its feed.

Looks like there was some sort of CME.

[Nightwatch]

Seems the swarm near PR is calming down a bit. Last days less quakes then the days before. Preparing for a bigger one perhaps?

[GCANE]

Seems the swarm near PR is calming down a bit. Last days less quakes then the days before. Preparing for a bigger one perhaps?

Hopefully, there won't be anything.

Solar Watcher on Youtube has mentioned before that when solar winds drop to around 350 km/sec after a large geomagnetic storm, the probability of a quake being triggered is heightened.

I actually noticed this on a few occasions.

Currently it is about 428 km/sec and dropping.

Interesting about the swarm around Ascension Island. All the quakes are at 10km depth.

This is a point where a deep magma plume is punching thru the Lithosphere.

See B in the bottom graphic.









http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... -5_eqs.php

[GCANE]

Another very unstable region, Japan, looks like it is becoming activated again.

Solar-wind speed now at 418 km/sec.




http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 35_eqs.php

[Nightwatch]

well, so far we havent seen any big tremors (7+) around earth last days.
Next one cant be related anymore to the solaractivity of last two weeks i guess?