Let us go over the facts so far this season. We currently stand at nine named storms and we’re practically at the end of the 19th meteorological day of August.
Over the past decade, we’ve averaged 3.9 named storms up to this point. We’re at 230.8% of that number so far. Even if you discount 1997, we’re at 3.8 named storms – 238.2% would be 2005.
If we apply this decade average to this year, so far, we’re still hitting the ball toward the fence. 10.1 would be the average of named storms from this point forward. (10.9 if you discount 1997). So, let us add that 11 to this year so far: 20. That would place us in second place, just one named storm behind the 1933 uber-season. That would be far from a “boring season.”
Code: Select all
A= Storms prior to Aug 20
B= Storms Aug 20 and after
C= 2005 YTD + year's storms Aug 20 and after
A B C
1995 07 12 21
1996 04 09 18
1997 05 03 12
1998 01 13 22
1999 02 10 19
2000 03 12 21
2001 04 12 21
2002 03 09 18
2003 05 11 20
2004 05 10 19Okay, I understand some of you are crying because of this “slow” August we’re in. How about we investigate that?!
Over the past decade, we typically see four named storms throughout the month. We are currently at two, but let us break down the month further.
Since 1995, we’ve seen 40 named storms develop in August.
Of those 40 storms, nine (22.5%) formed between the 1st and the 10th. The average for this timeframe is 0.9 named storms. We have had 2 in that timeframe – just over twice the average. (Wait. We had an above-normal average for the first third of August?!)
Of those 40 storms, 11 (27.5%) formed between the 11th and the 20th. The average for this time frame is 1.1 named storms. We have had zero in that timeframe. Okay, the laws of averages just balanced things out. We should be at two named storms at this point and, by golly, we have just that. We’re on par. This is an average August, so far.
Of those 40 storms, 20 (50%) formed between the 21st and the 31st. The average for this time from is two named storms.
Code: Select all
August storms (total; date each formed)
1995 07; 08, 10, 22, 22, 23, 28, 29
1996 04; 19, 22, 27, 28
1997 00; nil
1998 04; 20, 21, 24, 31
1999 04; 19, 20, 24, 24
2000 04; 04, 14, 18, 20
2001 03; 02, 17, 22
2002 03; 05, 06, 29
2003 03; 14, 28, 30
2004 08; 01, 09, 10, 14, 14, 25, 28, 29
2005 02; 03, 07, ...My point is, even with that “horrid” SAL, we’re still at normal for August. The meat and potatoes of the season doesn’t kick off until this upcoming week.
Even with the SAL sad story, I would love to introduce you to this awesome function here on Storm2k: the search button. Search the term “SAL” during June and July of 2004. You would not believe how many people were throwing in the towel before the first single storm formed. The key is patterns always change. The atmosphere, being in a fluid-like state, is almost moving. This SAL pattern will change just like the pattern changed from July to August.
The bottom line here is simmer down. We are far from below normal. Even if you discount everything that has happened in June and July, we’re still normal. However, if you still find yourself bored, I have a wonderful suggestion. Instead of sitting here on Storm2k posting one-liners about your boredom, use this tool (the internet) to learn something. Go to The Meteorology Education and Training website sponsored by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Instead of blowing your energy on silly emoticons displaying your hatred over such an “average” August, funnel it toward learning a thing or two about meteorology. Their programs are free and they cover such a wide spectrum of topics. Also, you would be amazed at how many professional meteorologists, including those at the National Weather Service, use this very webpage for refresher training.
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