Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

Aren't test systems numbered from 80 to 89?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Aren't test systems numbered from 80 to 89?

Yes.

[Cyclone1]

Aren't test systems numbered from 80 to 89?

Thank you! If it's a 90, it's not a test.

[jaxfladude]

okay all of you 80L-89L are "test invests" 90L-99L are "real invest", case closed let us now al go back to being bored once this system fails to become much of anything important

[senorpepr]

Aren't test systems numbered from 80 to 89?

FWIW, test invests on actual weather systems will still get a 90-series number. Completely fake systems, such as fake hurricanes that are "developed" for evacuation preparedness, etc. will receive an 80-series number.

[wxman57]

Aren't test systems numbered from 80 to 89?

FWIW, test invests on actual weather systems will still get a 90-series number. Completely fake systems, such as fake hurricanes that are "developed" for evacuation preparedness, etc. will receive an 80-series number.

That's the point I was trying to make. Using fake storms "80" series as tests won't fully test a system for readiness. The NHC would probably want to find a semi-interesting system that poses no threat to land to run through its procedures with real "90" series headers. I suspect that's what they were doing with this invest. Yeah, it had a small (very small) chance at development, so the test was somewhat realistic. I've been receiving quite a few test messages in my email (from the NHC's new system which was installed June 4-5) over the past week. If I were them, I'd want to do a few run-throughs on an actual disturbance with the proper headers to make sure there were no bugs when the public may really be threatened. We do that all the time. I've been testing software upgrades daily since March. What's the harm? Invests aren't broadcast to the public. The only "harm" is in over-inflating some of your hopes that this system really had a significant shot at developing. Don't take it out on me if I've deflated your hopes. I've always said that when I see a system with a real shot at developing that I'd yell it from the highest mountain. 98L isn't the system. So if they're using 98L to fully prepare for the season, great! Good for the NHC. Better discover the bugs now than when a Cat 3 is heading at Florida.

Back to 98L - there's not much left to develop now. I'd suggest looking toward Africa for Chantal. With any luck, we can go another week or two before Chantal forms.

[NDG]

The assertion Wxman57 brought up is valid.....I mean seriously to you honestly think the NHC SERIOUSLY believes that this had any chance to become a tropical entity?

If this would have been a test, they usually would had labeled it as a 00L test invest, or whatever the number they come out with, it might be 89L, something like that.
They also would had not mentioned the disturbance in their TWO if it would had being a test, because once is on their TWO, is pretty much opened to the public.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER ORGANIZATION TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD OVERSPREAD BERMUDA
OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Scorpion]

I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.

[RL3AO]

I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.

Is that a complaint?

[Cyclone1]

Another season cancel? GAH!

[storms in NC]

The assertion Wxman57 brought up is valid.....I mean seriously to you honestly think the NHC SERIOUSLY believes that this had any chance to become a tropical entity?

If this would have been a test, they usually would had labeled it as a 00L test invest, or whatever the number they come out with, it might be 89L, something like that.
They also would had not mentioned the disturbance in their TWO if it would had being a test, because once is on their TWO, is pretty much opened to the public.

BINGO. I haven't looked at it at all so I can't say one way or the other. But what I did see yesterday wasn't good. I didn't see how it could do any thing with the troff and the ULL there was little hope.
But everyone knew about the it at the fish pier today most were saying how it would go on out to sea. So Joe public know about it. For one they had said something on the TV here By the Met here.

Senorpepr sounds like a true Met. And know what he is really doing. He gave the right aswer to about the test. But this was no test But it was ONLY a invest. Not a TD or TS or a hurrican just a invest no more no less.

Now let me go and get this fish smell off me. Have a good night all.

Deb

[MississippiHurricane]

come on baby you can do it: do it for daddy just one time im begging you!!!

[Brent]

I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.

I share your frustration but to be fair, June and July are typically SLOW months. It is not at all uncommon to have NO storms in June and July both, much less 2(although they were very weak, but most storms in those months are).

[storms in NC]

Another season cancel? GAH!

If the same weather pattern stays the same then yes.

[RL3AO]

Remember what it looked like when it first became 98L? That is why I don't think it is a test.

[Cyclone1]

Another season cancel? GAH!

If the same weather pattern stays the same then yes.

So, we're not gonna get any more tropical storms from now until 2008? Ok, I'll believe that...

2005 spoiled us. If we don't have 3-4 tropical storms by now, we might as well return our generators.... It's not even August yet, people. This is a topic that angers me, so let's move on, I don't wanna get angry. Spread the love!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No need to get upset...both perspectives
are understandable.

For all weather enthusiasts...August and
September should bring some severe
hurricanes so just wait a couple weeks
and you will see big hurricanes.
Don't despair my fellow weather lovers...
Now just hope that nobody on land gets hurt...

Now just see here, we have explosive
heat content in the Caribbean GREATER THAN
2005...see the SST thread for proof of
this...
And so, after looking at those comparisons,
I come to the general conclusion that we
will see a vicious hurricane season.
If I'm wrong...I'll eat my crow with ketchup and
mayonnaise.

[NDG]

I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.

I'm sure you felt the same way in '98 & '04 about this same time, and then look what happened.

[Opal storm]

I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.

I'm sure you felt the same way in '98 & '04 about this same time, and then look what happened.

Exactly. So many people now consider 2005 the average. It's like if we don't have 5 hurricanes by August the whole season is a bust.