Spin at 9 north, 40 west.

[BigA]

There is a little spin at about 9 north, 40 west, moving westward. The spin is actually fairly well-defined, and I see clouds streaming around a low level circulation. Convection has waxed in the last several hours.

It is quite late for something to form this far east in the Atlantic, but
there is low shear in the area (5-10kts) expanding westward http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

9 North is also pretty darn far south, below those howling winds that ripped apart Ingrid, Karen, and Melissa, and its moving more or less due west.

It could fall apart in a couple of hours, but it is worth keeping an eye on. Development east of the Lesser Antilles isn't unheard of in October. (TS Pablo, 1995), (Cat 2 Jose, 1999) (H4Iris, 2001) (TS Nicholas, 2003) but it is fairly rare.

[BigA]

Limited convection continues to show over the spin, and there is little or no shear right now where it is. On the other hand, there is pretty much no model support for any development.

Any thoughts?

[AJC3]

Limited convection continues to show over the spin, and there is little or no shear right now where it is. On the other hand, there is pretty much no model support for any development.

Any thoughts?

Interesting little system. As you mention, it has lot going against it climatologically. In addition, looking at WV imagery, there's already an ULL out ahead of the system and both the GFS and ECM want to develop some pretty stout 250MB west/southwest flow between 8N-15N and 50W-60W over the next 3-4 days as the ULL shears out.

A neat feature to keep an eye on, however I suspect it will encounter some pretty hostile conditions in another few days as it approaches the Windwards.

[Gustywind]

Give it 24h we will see what happens but i'm agree with lthe low shear in this area right now...maybe allowing for more structure but near the Islands it's another thing with this persistent upper level through....keep watching it !

[mufasa157]

This area looks interesting. Similar location where Dean and Felix were born, although completely different conditions. Something to watch to the East, probably the last one.

[hurricanetrack]

Looking at the early visibles, seems to be curling up and looking better organized. No mention on the TWO this morning though.

[hurricanetrack]

GFS does develop this a little more over the coming days- nothing to get too excited about but it does not just go away like so many have in the past this season....will be interesting to watch. Could end up in our backyard in a week.

[HURAKAN]

looking impressive this morning:

[cycloneye]

Go to active storms forum as this wave has been tagged as 91L.