THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY EVIDENT
FROM THE SAN JUAN RADAR...AND IS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA E THROUGH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND SW NORTH ATLC...THOUGH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE
IS ALSO PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FUEL. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO
ANALYZED JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N65W AS DICTATED BY
THE SAN JUAN RADAR AND THE SURROUNDING SFC OBSERVATIONS. THERE
IS SOME DEBATE ON IF SOME OF THIS ENERGY COULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN.THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY MESSY AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES THE SW
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS.
AT 1200 UTC A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM FAR SE FLORIDA TO JUST N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH A MEAN 1010 MB LOW NEAR 23N74W AND
ANOTHER 1011 MB CENTER JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W. THE
LATTER APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER PRODUCER...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM FOUND IN
CARIBBEAN SECTION. TROUGHING N OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OFF AND ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF
77W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGHING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM THE MID ATLC COAST WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES/SWELL
OFFSHORE FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2:05 p.m. EDT TWD