What is that in the Central Gulf.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The convergence line I mean. WV loop- it is embedded in dry air.

IR 2 loop, clear wind shift along it. And this boundary seems to extend from the Yucatan into SE Texas, maybe to the remnants of 90L. Where did that boundary come from.


I'm impressed it has storms on the normally subsident side of the upper low to its immediate East, and wondering if maybe it might get passed by the UL before it gets to land in the BOC.


Just sort of cool, almost looks like a front heading the wrong direction.

[Wren]

Tell me I'm not seeing some counter clockwise circulation around 26N 91W in this this morning. Is this thing gonna blow up? Invest 96L at hand?

Looks pretty good to me, lots of convection firing.

[Wren]

Somebody wake up. I think we may have a TS cooking here.

[cycloneye]

[Cookiely]

I think this is the explanation from the discussion this morning but I don't know if it has future potential or not.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPANDING SOME IN THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER INVERTED TROUGHING WHICH EXTENDS NWD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE NW CARIB

[Wren]

Well it looks pretty small in comparison to 94L. Deceiving when you use the zoom on sat images.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

[lrak]

is this thing trying to pull a fast one?

[Ed Mahmoud]

is this thing trying to pull a fast one?

Well, it'd be super stealthy if it did. No models do anything, and no pro-mets have visited the thread.

Looks interesting, though...

[RL3AO]

What is that in the Central Gulf?

Water.

Seriously, considering the models do nothing and QS shows nothing I doubt it will do anything.

[ROCK]

What is that in the Central Gulf?

Water.

Seriously, considering the models do nothing and QS shows nothing I doubt it will do anything.

I see mid-level turning, with low level convergence (although broad) with good upper divergence. Wind shear is 10knts......maybe we are watching the formation of a LLC. Needs to tap the surface though it it wants to stay alive....persistance is a key here.....


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[vaffie]

Pressures are low (about 1008-1009 mb) and falling. Winds are increasing--up to 20 knots now in the general vicinity. Vorticity is highest at the midlevels. Nice convection occurring, with spiral bands. Upper level high partly over it. I think this has a very good chance of becoming our next invest.

[vbhoutex]

Somebody wake up. I think we may have a TS cooking here.

Uh not anywhere near it!!I just looked at the lattest sat loops on this and I see nothing to get excited about. The is definitely no low level turning whatsoever and for that matter I don't see any mid level turning either. If there was some earlier then it has disappeared imo. Definitley lots of conviection along the torugh, but nothing that makes me worry attm about something trying to surprise us. As the discussion stated it is part of the system in the NW Carib.

[ROCK]

Somebody wake up. I think we may have a TS cooking here.

Uh not anywhere near it!!I just looked at the lattest sat loops on this and I see nothing to get excited about. The is definitely no low level turning whatsoever and for that matter I don't see any mid level turning either. If there was some earlier then it has disappeared imo. Definitley lots of conviection along the torugh, but nothing that makes me worry attm about something trying to surprise us. As the discussion stated it is part of the system in the NW Carib.

VB, with all due respect you cannot see any mid level turning in this blob? Fairly evident in the zoom vis loop. Speed it up it is there. But your right no low level feature yet. Needs to tap the surface to get going. Lets see how its doing tonight when the sun goes down. Might just fizzle away with the loss of daytime heating.....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[ROCK]

latest SCAT.....

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds13.png

[Thunder44]

It's just a cluster of thunderstorms along an inverted surface trof. Nothing to be alarmed about.

[BigA]

It's just a cluster of thunderstorms along an inverted surface trof. Nothing to be alarmed about.

Aren't decaying surface troughs in the Gulf of Mexico one of the main foci for tropical cyclone development in October?

The buoy near this shows a pressure of 29.79 and falling, and there is definitely a spin, even if it is at the mid levels.

[vbhoutex]

Somebody wake up. I think we may have a TS cooking here.

Uh not anywhere near it!!I just looked at the lattest sat loops on this and I see nothing to get excited about. The is definitely no low level turning whatsoever and for that matter I don't see any mid level turning either. If there was some earlier then it has disappeared imo. Definitley lots of conviection along the torugh, but nothing that makes me worry attm about something trying to surprise us. As the discussion stated it is part of the system in the NW Carib.

VB, with all due respect you cannot see any mid level turning in this blob? Fairly evident in the zoom vis loop. Speed it up it is there. But your right no low level feature yet. Needs to tap the surface to get going. Lets see how its doing tonight when the sun goes down. Might just fizzle away with the loss of daytime heating.....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I still don't see what I would call a mid level spin in this. What I see is convergence that is giving the illusion of a spin along with shear adding to that illusion. JMHO. It is definitley this tyupe of system, if there is any persistence, that we do need to watch this time of year, but attm I don't see anything that allarms me. If it makes it through the night in the shape it is in now or better shape, then I will definitely become much more attentive.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was just impressed with a sharp windshift producing decent convection on the subsident side of an upper low with bone dry air either side of it.


But if this ever did do something, despite lack of any model support, become an invest, well, maybe I'll drink the tall boy of Bud in the fridge.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Neighboring troughs inducing a small 'short wave' anticyclone above area of storms?

[teal61]

HGX AFD tonight


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
823 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007

ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE CIRCULATION THAT WAS EVIDENT OUT AROUND
25N AND 89.9W...OBS SURROUNDING THIS APPEAR TO BE RESPONDING TO
FALLING PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE THERE AND
SPEED SHEAR RELAXING DRAMATICALLY...MAY JUST BE A PRONOUNCED MCV
BUT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT NONETHELESS.