Is Texas out of the woods?

Johnny · #1 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 12:33 pm

Joe bastardi hinted around that the Texas coastline is out of the woods this year and will not get hit by another tropical system. I heard this on another forum. I'm not on top of my game as far as weather patterns are concerned so I just wanted to here a few opinions on this. Does this have any truth in it?

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 12:43 pm

I think Joe is wrong on this one big time. Don't have anything to back up my logic - just know this is going to be an active season and all the GOM will be under the gun. Just because we got one storm doesn't mean some invisble barrrier goes up and keeps all the other storms away.

My two cents.

Patricia

southerngale · #3 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 12:43 pm

IMO, nobody is out of the woods until Hurricane Season is over. You never know! I know there are patterns, etc. and I'm certainly no expert but even those patterns aren't a sure thing. Tropical systems don't always do what they're supposed to do.

Now wait for a reply from someone who is more knowlegeable on this subject.

#4 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 12:45 pm

How could he possibly make a statement like that?
No one knows for sure where a storm will form or hit. If he said that he is sure going out on a limb.

#5 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 1:23 pm

That statement just goes to show how far out on a limb he will go just in case what he says will happen happens then he can say "I was the only one who told you that!". :grr:

That is a bunch of fluff and it just goes to show how unprofessional he is. :roll:

Thanks for bringing that to our attention. I hope that no one who sees that believes it or it could be a deadly statement. :o

#6 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 1:34 pm

In JoeB's defense, he has not guaranteed anything in terms of Texas being "out of the woods." What he has said is that history has demonstrated that Texas, if it experiences a landfalling hurricane earlier in the tropical season, tends to avoid further occurences later in the season.

I also wouldn't characterize his statements as "unprofessional." The guy puts tons and tons of research hours into his forecast for the tropical season and also updates it on a regular basis. He appears to base his predictions and statements on factual evidence, climatology, and his general meteorological savvy.

He also warned folks about 48 hours before Claudette's landfall that he feared the system would rapidly intensify close to landfall and that is exactly what happened, despite NHC's party line of "possible slow strengthening."

Johnny · #7 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 1:46 pm

Thanks Portastorm for the clarification. I was an avid reader of JoeB's before he went to a pay site. He taught me alot and I like his humor. He even invited me to visit him at his inlaws who live 5 minutes down the road for me for Margarita's! :lol:

So what do you and all of you think about his statement? Do you agree or disagree with Joe's point of view below. Does anyone know where we can find some information on this? This leads me to believe that there has never been two hurricanes hit the Texas coast in one season. Is this true?

What he has said is that history has demonstrated that Texas, if it experiences a landfalling hurricane earlier in the tropical season, tends to avoid further occurences later in the season.

GalvestonDuck · #8 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 1:55 pm

Found this searching for Texas hurricane history:

1909: A storm was noted entering the Eastern Caribbean on the 13th of July. It moved towards the west-northwest, passing over the Isle of Pines on the 17/18th. This motion continued, and on the 21st it made landfall near Velasco. One-half of the town was destroyed. The calm of the eye passed over the city for 45 minutes. The storm surge was as high as 20 feet. At Bay City, the pressure fell to 29.00" at 2:30 P.M.. Property damage was estimated at 2 million dollars and 41 lives were lost. The storm surge at Galveston was 10 feet; five of the people perished there.

1909: On August 21st, a storm was seen east of the Virgin Islands. It tracked westward just south of the Greater Antilles. Many houses were wrecked at Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti by the high easterly gales. Havana had northeast winds of 60 m.p.h. on the 24th. As the storm passed through the Yucatan Channel, the captain of the ship S.S. Cartago sent a wireless message to New Orleans, giving an account of the estimated 100 m.p.h. winds he had sailed through. This was the first wireless message to be used real time from a ship at sea from a tropical cyclone.

As the system approached the Mexican coast, gales and tremendous seas were experienced along the south Texas coast; some sites experiencing their highest tides in many years. At Tarpon Beach, every building except the lighthouse and quarantine station were destroyed by the storm surge. Wreckage washed ashore Point Island, 3 miles away. Point Isabel was underwater. About 1500 people perished in Mexico as a result of floods caused by the storm. There were no reported deaths in Texas.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txerly20hur.htm

GalvestonDuck · #9 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 1:57 pm

One more:

June 2-3rd, 1871: Hurricane struck the Texas coast. Lowest pressure at Galveston was 29.51" and 15.57" of rain fell during the storm. Port Aransas recorded an extraordinary high tide and gale force winds.

June 9th, 1871: This hurricane moved through East Texas. In Galveston, it wrecked many ships and leveled St. Patrick church. Several houses were leveled and the east end of the Island flooded. Winds blew the roof off the Catholic church in Refugio, killing one person. The Virginia Dare grounded on the outer sandbar off the beach of Galveston. Its crew was rescued.

So there ya go -- two incidents of Texas having two landfalls in one season. Not often, but it's happened.

#10 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 1:59 pm

Johnny .... again, please don't perceive his statement as "two hurricanes have never hit the Texas coast in one season." He is suggesting that an early season hit (in June or perhaps July) often precludes hits down the road.

I'm sure Texas has experienced several hurricane landfalls in a season before. NHC has archives on its site:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

For whatever its worth, JoeB said today that we could see some tropical development off the southeast US coast in the next two weeks and that with a trough in the East, a developing Atlantic ridge, and a negative North American Oscillation (NAO) Index, the parameters are there for development.

#11 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 2:00 pm

Didn't see your good work before I posted GalvestonDuck.

Thanks for the historical references. Also glad things didn't get too bad in your neck of the woods yesterday!

Johnny · #12 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 2:28 pm

So 1909 is the last time? I guess Joe Bastardi is on to something. It does happen but the chances are few and far between.
GalvestonDuck, thanks for researching that information for us.
Portastorm, thanks for the link.....I did a little investigating and found that in 1998, we had two tropical storms that hit the Texas Coast. The names were Charley and Frances. Charley came onshore (Aug. 22nd) near Port Aransas with 40 kt winds and Frances came onshore (Sept. 11th) just north of Corpus Christi with 55 knot winds. These are the two most recent tropical systems to hit the Texas Coast in the same year.
It is still very early in the hurricane season so if two hurricanes were going to hit the Texas Coast, this year is as good as any.

#13 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 2:40 pm

In 1989 we had 3...two hurricanes (Chantal and Jerry) and one TS (allison). What he said was that if Texas gets an early storm, we tend to not have any later.

#14 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 3:56 pm

Perhaps there is some truth to Joe's statement, but I don't think it applies in this case since Claudette struck so early. Generally, Texas tends to get early-season storms, when the Bermuda high is strong and frontal system approaching the Gulf are rare. So an early-season storm period may be from the first week or two of August up to the 4th week of September, as that's when we tend to get our first cold front (21st-27th). It is unusual for Texas to get hit after the end of September, as the Bermuda high tends to be weaker and farther east by then, allowing storms to recurve sooner.

But it is NOT normal for Texas to get hit by a mid July storm. Flow patterns that would take a storm to Texas are still in place and probably will be in place through mid to late September. That's quite a period of vulnerability. I'll bet if you took a look at the times that Texas has been hit by a hurricane in the past and then not hit again that season, that those hits were in August or September and not July. So, one cannot assume that it is now too late in the season for Texas to be hit again.

#15 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 4:23 pm

I don't want to get into a position of speaking for Bastardi, as he is pretty darn good at speaking for himself. But that being said, I believe that when he was talking early season hits to Texas, he was talking about June storms.

All of last week, he was quick to point out that Claudette had hardly any historical analogies and that a July storm hitting Texas was almost unheard of.

Given these unusual facts surrounding Claudette, I agree with you WxMan57 in that we probably shouldn't consider Texas "out of the woods" at all. All signs point to an active Atlantic basin season.

KatDaddy · #16 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Jul 16, 2003 4:24 pm

TS Allison in June
H Chantal in July
H Jerry in October

Is Texas out of the woods?

Is Texas out of the woods?

Perhaps

1989 Hurricane Chantal and Jerry

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