Wave near the Lesser Antilles

[SouthFloridawx]

000
I didn't see anyone post an official thread about this wave. I just noticed that the TPC started to mention about it in the 2:00pm outlook. I kind of thought looking at the long range gfs yesterday that the strong easterlies aloft were going head farther north. Not sure what was happening down there in the Caribbean, but looks like it will be a better environment in the near future... (3-4 days?)


ABNT20 KNHC 181731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Shear is very high right now and seems like the convection is now starting to weaken.

Still conditions may improve as the wave axis eventually moves out of the way, we shall see!

[Gustywind]

Shear is very high right now and seems like the convection is now starting to weaken.

Still conditions may improve as the wave axis eventually moves out of the way, we shall see!

Convection is weaken? Are you sure? I don't tkink that, go on this thread viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=740 to have more pics and infos from us in the carib , my untrained eyes saw the opposite but hope you're right Whereas, i won't be so happy if i where living in the Leewards/Windwards viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=740

[KWT]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Cloud tops have warmed which suggests convection weakening. Still its fairly deep in some parts of it I suppose.

[SouthFloridawx]

Vertical Shear 00hr on the most recent GFS run on the FSU site... 12Z



72hr from now. Looks like the shear is going to relax a little, and will allow for some development.

[cycloneye]

This is the radar from Guadeloupe that shows plenty of rain in the vicinity.But as you animate the radar,it shows a weak turning just ESE of Guadeloupe.



Animation of radar.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

As Gustywind pointed out,there is a thread at Weather Attic forum for those who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands to stop by and post their observations,web cams etc.I am glad that SouthFloridawx made this thread for the members to talk in general about this wave.

[poof121]

NHC moved the floater for 97L to this wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

The white circle is the developing surface circ and the red circle is where to watch later tonight and tomorrow as it moves under the developing upper ridge. the convection should begin to fire there very soon and with the upper environment forecast to drastically improve over the 12 to 24hrs development chances go up

[Ed Mahmoud]

You can see the divergence in the cirrus of the L. Antilles wave. Cirrus on North side is blowing to the East-Northeast, on the South side, blowing off to the East-Southeast.

[Sanibel]

I think the shear stripped the top off Aric's surface feature.

[Aric Dunn]

THe area i circled in white is moving under less than 20 kts of shear and dropping off very fast upper environment is quickly becoming favorable

[Aric Dunn]

I think the shear stripped the top off Aric's surface feature.

well yeah it did .. but its where its moving thats important

[jinftl]

weak system right now, moving west towards area of more favorable conditions.....the hostile conditions right now may not be what we want to see in reality...this is allowing the system to make a run west, instead of being coaxed to recurve north.

i've seen worse systems go on and develop when conditions became more favorable...

I think the shear stripped the top off Aric's surface feature.

well yeah it did .. but its where its moving thats important

[Aric Dunn]

weak system right now, moving west towards area of more favorable conditions.....the hostile conditions right now may not be what we want to see in reality right now....allowing the system to make a run west, instead of being coaxed to recurve north.

I think the shear stripped the top off Aric's surface feature.

well yeah it did .. but its where its moving thats important

well the funny thing is that the system would probably not even be there if it was not for the shear or divergence. yet another example how shear can help initially to get things moving along. but of course it still has a long ways to go and no assurances it will actually develope now or in the future. but it has a much better chance now than it did before all thanks to the shear

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian- hits near Tampa, probably as a tropical storm, gets some baroclinic juice and rides I-95 up to the Northeast.

[Sanibel]

The Gulf is still hostile in my opinion. If this were ten days later it would probably make a big difference.

[Ed Mahmoud]

In my amateur opinion, any low level spin that goes racing out in the fast low level flow exposed is not what will develop.

IF anything develops, it would be a new center that develops under the thunderstorms if shear lessens.

[Aric Dunn]

Canadian- hits near Tampa, probably as a tropical storm, gets some baroclinic juice and rides I-95 up to the Northeast.

yeah saw that from the other source .. the problem with that run is that it takes the whole across Hispaniola which would lower its chances of surviving. also its kind of a creepy run.. looks very charlie like ...lol

[Aric Dunn]

The Gulf is still hostile in my opinion. If this were ten days later it would probably make a big difference.

as we just found out .. things can change fast

[Blown Away]

In my amateur opinion, any low level spin that goes racing out in the fast low level flow exposed is not what will develop.

IF anything develops, it would be a new center that develops under the thunderstorms if shear lessens.

I agree there is very little to no convection at all w/ the naked swirl that is well removed to the west from the convection. Plus that swirl is racing due west. IMO if the convection persists w/ this wave for a little longer it will merge w/ 97L's energy I bet we get at least 98L out of it.