Global model runs discussion

[Derek Ortt]

may want to move my post in the other thread... as this is a separate feature that moves off in 3 days, not the wave GFS is over excited about

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF continues to develop wave behind 99L.By the way,it develops down the road 99L too.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9081012!!/

12z ECMWF North America Animation

12z ECMWF South America Animation

[Blown Away]

So did I read that run correctly, through the islands, through the straits, and into LA?

[Wx_Warrior]

No, EURO doesn't have anything landing in Louisiana. Doesn't go that far out.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Caribbean Disco...snipet...


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009


EXTENDED OUTLOOK: THE EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION MODELS MAINTAINS
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SHOWING MJO CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IMPROVING
THROUGH MID AUGUST...WITH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH-FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS/
ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY NOW SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS ON
BOTH OCEANS. AT UPPER LEVELS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES/OFF THE COAST OF THE
USA...WHICH IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A WEAK/NARROW RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. IF THIS
PATTERN PERSIST...TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ARE LIKELY TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THEY ARE ABOUT TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE ONES FORMING TO THE WEST OF 45W ARE UP
FOR GRAB...AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE ISLAND CHAIN-PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: So did I read that run correctly, through the islands, through the straits, and into LA?

I think you are seeing the tropical wave in the early frames that moves into the Gulf this weekend and it shows it headed toward LA.

[Meso]

240 hour cmc

[cycloneye]

Its two runs in a row that GFS tracks over Hispanola.

06z.

[Dean4Storms]

Did you guys notice the GFDL 06z run of TD2 closing off a low this weekend in the FL Straits? Looks like it is the wave that NHC has code yellow out east of the Islands.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

Did you guys notice the GFDL 06z run of TD2 closing off a low this weekend in the FL Straits? Looks like it is the wave that NHC has code yellow out east of the Islands.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106102&start=40

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did you guys notice the GFDL 06z run of TD2 closing off a low this weekend in the FL Straits? Looks like it is the wave that NHC has code yellow out east of the Islands.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106102&start=40

Yup, check that topic. I used my handy AccuWx PPV coarse grid 850 mb winds to trace the provenance of the Florida Straights potential system.

[Dean4Storms]

Did you guys notice the GFDL 06z run of TD2 closing off a low this weekend in the FL Straits? Looks like it is the wave that NHC has code yellow out east of the Islands.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106102&start=40

Yup, check that topic. I used my handy AccuWx PPV coarse grid 850 mb winds to trace the provenance of the Florida Straights potential system.

Ah, must of been posted nearly the same time, because I know I checked that thread! Either that or the old age is starting to creep in!

[cycloneye]

This is pure fantasyland (384 hours) but I post this only to show that 12z GFS develops another wave behind the supposed monster.

[Frank2]

The CMC shows the mid-Atlantic trough while the GFS doesn't - NOAA seems to also favor the CMC at this point, especially since the weakness is already there...

[cycloneye]

Again is fantasyland at 384 hours.GFS continues to show a third system behind TD 2 and wave behind TD 2.

Any pro met can answer this question about GFS and its timeframe.Do any of you favor cutting the long range from 16 to 10 days?

[Dean4Storms]

GFS is now bringing monster through Carib. and up into the GOM into Florida!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/mode ... es/gfs_slp

[CourierPR]

GFS is now bringing monster through Carib. and up into the GOM into Florida!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/mode ... es/gfs_slp

Looks very similar to the track of Donna in 1960.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We should have 4 Threads. One for the gulf, one for the Carib, one for the ITCZ belt in the atlantic and one for the N. Atlantic. This is confusing me


When an invest is tagged a seperate thread is made for it. What do you guys think?

[ronjon]

Will Bill be the son of Donna?

[Gustywind]

Will Bill be the son of Donna?

No...but the son of GOFISHING far away of the East Carib