ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Here are two graphics,one from December 21 when El Nino was at its peak compared to Febuary 4.There is a marked difference as the december graphic shows plenty of reds while the Febuary 4 one has a small pocket.

December 21




Febuary 4



http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

[somethingfunny]

I see a large area of blue swelling up off of Chile. Just a hunch, but I think the models aren't telling the whole story when they forecast Neutral by early Summer. I think we'll have a full-fledged La Nina going by the end of Summer.

NOT A PROFESSIONAL FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

Thirty day average of SOI has dropped 14 points in 10 days

Code: Select all

26-Jan-2010 1010.00 1006.05 -3.10 -3.69 -7.42
27-Jan-2010 1008.15 1005.55 -9.46 -4.51 -7.30
28-Jan-2010 1006.18 1005.25 -17.33 -5.59 -7.41
29-Jan-2010 1006.51 1004.25 -11.06 -6.03 -7.40
30-Jan-2010 1005.41 1004.75 -18.60 -7.11 -7.43
31-Jan-2010 1001.99 1006.40 -42.49 -8.90 -7.71
1-Feb-2010 999.10 1006.45 -58.07 -11.14 -8.23
2-Feb-2010 999.15 1005.55 -53.51 -13.07 -8.76
3-Feb-2010 1001.71 1006.15 -44.09 -15.01 -9.27
4-Feb-2010 1000.54 1008.35 -60.28 -17.41 -10.08


I think a lot of this drop can be attributed to the fact that a strong tropical cyclone (Oli) has moved within a couple hundred miles of Tahiti.

Look at the 30 day SOI index how has crashed thanks to that powerful cyclone named Oli.



Daily SOI Index

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[Macrocane]

I think that the february CPC discussion hasn't been posted yet, so here it is:

Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

A significant El Niño persisted throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean during January 2010 (Fig. 1). Although sea surface temperature (SST) departures in the Niño-3.4 region decreased to +1.2oC in late January, SSTs continued to be sufficiently warm to support deep tropical convection (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3). Over the last several months, a series of oceanic Kelvin waves contributed to the build-up of heat content anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). The latest Kelvin wave was associated with temperature departures exceeding +2oC down to 150m depth across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Equatorial convection over the central Pacific remained enhanced during the month, while convection over Indonesia exhibited considerable week-to-week variability. While the low-level winds have been variable, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies generally prevailed during January. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Niño episode.

Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010, and model spread increases at longer lead times (Fig. 6). Nearly half of the models indicate the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5oC around April-May-June 2010, indicating a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during Northern Hemisphere spring. However, predicting the timing of this transition is highly uncertain.

El Niño impacts are expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring, even as equatorial SST departures decrease, partly due to the typical warming that occurs between now and April/May (Fig. 3). Expected impacts during February-April 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, which will likely expand eastward and influence portions of the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as coastal sections of Peru and Ecuador. For the contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern tier of the country, with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and southeastern states.

Link: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[Blown Away]

It seems Oli's effect accelerated the rapid downward spiral of the SOI, now that Oli is winding down does the SOI maintain the rapid downward momentum or is it a temporary effect and the SOI will go back to a slower transition?

[cycloneye]

Blown away,the Daily SOI Index stopped crashing as cyclone Oli is getting out of the picture.Now lets see how the index behaves as it goes to a more normal pace.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

5-Feb-2010 997.85 1009.85 -80.41
6-Feb-2010 1002.41 1009.85 -58.50

[jinftl]

El nino strength continues to tank....even faster than some models have predicted

The higher the + sst anomaly, the stronger the el nino is.....clearly there has been a steady weakening trend of the current el nino since the peak reached at the end of December:

Nino Region 3.4 SST anomaly:
12/28/09 = +1.9C
1/4/10 = +1.8C
1/11/10 = +1.8C
1/18/10 = +1.7C
1/25/10 = +1.4C
2/1/10 = +1.2C

[cycloneye]

If you notice,in mid to late December when El Nino peaked,the oranges and reds even some black were plenty in the subsurface,but the last frames shows shrinking reds and oranges,although the blues are still not prominent.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 2/8/10 update

This weeks update from Climate Prediction Center shows more decreases in the numbers of the different areas of ENSO except for El Nino 3-4 that stayed the same as last week.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.3ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3= +0.7ºC
Niño1+2= +0.4ºC

This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.1ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3= +0.6ºC
Niño1+2= 0.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

After reaching an unprecedented number of -80,the SOI index is rising without going back.Lets see how the index behaves in the next few days but Cyclone Pat I think will not cause it to go bonkers downward again as is far away from Tahiti.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

5-Feb-2010 997.85 1009.85 -80.41
6-Feb-2010 1002.41 1009.85 -58.50
7-Feb-2010 1005.43 1009.90 -44.24
8-Feb-2010 1006.86 1009.95 -37.61
9-Feb-2010 1008.64 1009.40 -26.42

[cycloneye]

El Nino has continued to weaken,maybe a little more faster than what the models are forecasting.

[cycloneye]

The Australian model POAMA forecasts a El Nino Modoki.But a caviat is that this is experimental.

http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/po ... atest.html

[Blown Away]

So is the prediction there will be an El Nino Modoki for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season? Interesting.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article ... 33,00.html

[cycloneye]

So is the prediction there will be an El Nino Modoki for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season? Interesting.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article ... 33,00.html

Interesting articule but I think its still early to have a definitive conclusion about if El Nino first will fade turning the Pacific into a Neutral stage or if El Nino Modoki will be the rule.I would wait until mid to late March to see how things are progressing.

[Blown Away]

I guess for it to be an El Nino Modoki the warming has to occur more in the Central Pacific rather than the Eastern Pacific? Does the current El Nino meet that criteria?
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/ ... 062909.php

[cycloneye]

I guess for it to be an El Nino Modoki the warming has to occur more in the Central Pacific rather than the Eastern Pacific? Does the current El Nino meet that criteria?
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/ ... 062909.php

Central Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Only a small pocket of over +1.5C at El Nino 3-4 area but the rest is cooling slowly.

[cycloneye]

Since that big crash of the SOI to -80,it has stopped and now is almost going to positive.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

5-Feb-2010 997.85 1009.85 -80.41
6-Feb-2010 1002.41 1009.85 -58.50
7-Feb-2010 1005.43 1009.90 -44.24
8-Feb-2010 1006.86 1009.95 -37.61
9-Feb-2010 1008.64 1009.40 -26.42
10-Feb-2010 1009.18 1010.15 -27.43
11-Feb-2010 1009.75 1010.15 -24.69
12-Feb-2010 1010.74 1009.40 -16.33
13-Feb-2010 1010.78 1008.10 -9.89
14-Feb-2010 1010.85 1007.90 -8.60
15-Feb-2010 1010.49 1007.35 -7.68

[Blown Away]

So what does it take for this to be an El Nino Modiki? If the SOI continues moving towards the positive is a El Nino Modiki become more possible?

[cycloneye]

The NCEP or CFS model that was one of the most El Nino bullish models,has gone to Neutral ENSO by July.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... cast.shtml