Area behind 93L

[alan1961]

Gusty are you on the same area we are talking about?

[Gustywind]

Oh no excuse me! i was on the new wave emerging from Africa! This topic is about the area near the 45W?

[somethingfunny]

POOF!

[alan1961]

Oh no excuse me! i was on the new wave emerging from Africa! This topic is about the area near the 45W?

sort off gusty yea gets kinda confusing dont it

[Gustywind]

Oh no excuse me! i was on the new wave emerging from Africa! This topic is about the area near the 45W?

sort off gusty yea gets kinda confusing dont it

Yeah Alan twaves every ways and we're not even in August

[Fego]

Oh no excuse me! i was on the new wave emerging from Africa! This topic is about the area near the 45W?

sort off gusty yea gets kinda confusing dont it

Yeah Alan twaves every ways and we're not even in August

May be a change in the topic subject would help. Ummm like "Wave in the 45W"... just a recomendation.

[Gustywind]

Yeah Fego you're right you can the change if you want Fego... as i appreciated your recommendation

[BigA]

For what it's worth I originally meant the thread to discuss the area behind 93L that is now in the eastern Caribbean, but if the wave near 45west is more interesting, we can change the title.

[Aquawind]

Sorry about the hijack BigA. I got caught up on the wave train..

[leanne_uk]

[tailgater]

A lot of the models are starting to show a little development with this one.

[scad]

Would this be a threat to the gulf states too?, or an east coast threat?

[gatorcane]

There is about 40K of SW shear over this wave right now. Long-term models show a large trough that should dig into the Eastern CONUS/Western Atlantic in 5 days or so (however, these models are still in the extended range so things could change). This area should move to the WNW over the next couple of days and thereafter gradually veer to the NW then north out ahead of the trough probably around 65W. That said, it certainly looks like it has some kind of spin to it. Could get an NHC code yellow if this keeps up so will keep an eye on it while we watch 93L steal the show in the Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that most everything out there is going "poof" but I guess that suppose to happen this time of year.

What's alarming to me is the amount of convection as a whole...I've never seen the Atlantic look like this in June....

[Gustywind]

[gatorcane]

Well a code yellow has been issued as I expected they would when I looked at things last night:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[KWT]

The question is can this area keep convection if the jet and the shear aloft with the divergent conditions weakens, it remains to be seen...

But there is some light spin to it and I think it is the sort of system that could end up developing once it lifts out to the north at some point, its location next to the subtropical high pressure belt will probably help with the gradient.

Could end up being 94L at some point if it can get west enough then head north.

[HURAKAN]

I think it can easily end up as 94L in a day or two. It wouldn't be the first system that tries to develop under heavy shear. Last year we had like 4!! lol

[KWT]

Actually it sorta looks like the sort of system that did develop last year now that I look at it. Lets see how long it can last and how much energy it can zap from the waters at the same time!

[OuterBanker]

Should be 94L before the day is out.

Should also be the first fish, staying well east of US coast.

Soup is ready to boil over. And it's only June. Wow.

Hell weeks this year will be something else I'm afraid (Aug 15 to Oct 15).

With any luck the African waves will die down by then.