ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The June update of the ECMWF shows Neutral all the way towards the end of 2011.



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[Portastorm]

That would be a good thing, IMHO, if the Euro verified. Those of us who have suffered from drought would like to see La Nina go bye bye for a few years.

[cycloneye]

That would be a good thing, IMHO, if the Euro verified. Those of us who have suffered from drought would like to see La Nina go bye bye for a few years.

Well,dont celebrate yet as is not a done deal that Neutral will stay for a long time. The CFS model has the forecast of La Nina returning by early 2012.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/27/11 update

Is up to 0.0C from -0.1C that was last week which means, Neutral is on firm control.

Niño 4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4= 0.0ºC
Niño 3= 0.3ºC
Niño1+2= 0.4ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 7/5/11 update

This update brings nino 3.4 to warm neutral at +0.1C.Last week it was at 0.0C.

Niño 4= 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4= 0.1ºC
Niño 3= 0.1ºC
Niño1+2= 0.4ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

It wouldnt suprise me to see a weak el nino in the fall

[cycloneye]

The ENSO models continue to forecast Neutral thru the summer and then going back to La Nina by the fall and next winter.Here is the CFS model,but other models also are with that scenario.

[Rgv20]

No! I want an El Nino winter, wet and cool for my area.

[South Texas Storms]

I know! We can't have another warm and dry winter here. That would make our drought situation even worse.

[Macrocane]

Oh noo please let's stay in Neutral that would be the best for everyone, another El Niño would bring hot temps and dry conditions to Central America and that sucks! I know you're on that situation right now and I hope it gets better soon.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center July update

Neutral going ahead thru the fall and La Nina with a good chance of returning by next winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011.

During June 2011, ENSO-neutral conditions continued as reflected by the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño index values were near average (Fig. 2), ranging between 0.0oC (Niño-4) and 0.4oC (Niño-1+2). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) remained elevated, but weakened slightly throughout the month, in accordance with the declining strength of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). While weak, the atmospheric circulation anomalies remained consistent with certain aspects of La Niña. In particular, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central Pacific. Collectively, these tropical Pacific anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral conditions, but the atmospheric circulation continues to be characteristic of La Niña.

Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.

[thetruesms]

Title seems a little off - CFS is a bit of an outlier in going back to La Niña, and the discussion even notes that neutral remains the most likely scenario. It's just that a double dip La Niña has a higher probability now than it did last discussion.

[South Texas Storms]

Title seems a little off - CFS is a bit of an outlier in going back to La Niña, and the discussion even notes that neutral remains the most likely scenario. It's just that a double dip La Niña has a higher probability now than it did last discussion.

Grrr people who live in the south don't want to hear this! We really need El Nino to return and give us a wet and cool winter, expecially after this brutal drought we currently are experiencing in Texas. Is it rare to have a La Nina and then Neutral and then La Nina again? I thought it usually went in the pattern of La Nina then Neutral and then El Nino and vice versa?

[Portastorm]

As I mentioned in the Texas winter thread, the CFS isn't exactly reliable with these forecasts so a return to Nina conditions this winter is far from guaranteed. What is concerning though is that some long-range watchers are in agreement that at least a mild Nina is possible.

As far as patterns go, South Texas Storms, I don't think there is a set one. You could have several winters in a row with ENSO conditions of Nina or Nino. Don't forget that last winter the Nina had incredibly strong (i.e. cold) conditions just about off the charts. Even if a Nina does take shape for this winter, it shouldn't be as severe and ... perhaps ... perhaps ... drought conditions might lessen. I realize this is all speculative and we have a long ways to go.

[South Texas Storms]

As I mentioned in the Texas winter thread, the CFS isn't exactly reliable with these forecasts so a return to Nina conditions this winter is far from guaranteed. What is concerning though is that some long-range watchers are in agreement that at least a mild Nina is possible.

As far as patterns go, South Texas Storms, I don't think there is a set one. You could have several winters in a row with ENSO conditions of Nina or Nino. Don't forget that last winter the Nina had incredibly strong (i.e. cold) conditions just about off the charts. Even if a Nina does take shape for this winter, it shouldn't be as severe and ... perhaps ... perhaps ... drought conditions might lessen. I realize this is all speculative and we have a long ways to go.

Thanks Portastorm. Isn't it true that the ENSO model forecasts run in the early summer months are the most unrelable runs of the year? I thought I read that somewhere...

[Portastorm]

Thanks Portastorm. Isn't it true that the ENSO model forecasts run in the early summer months are the most unrelable runs of the year? I thought I read that somewhere...

I really don't know the answer to your question, STS. I'll try and do some research on that and I'm sure others here may opine as well. Like any other computer modeling, I do know that some long-range models do better than others depending on the ENSO state.

[cycloneye]

Thanks Portastorm. Isn't it true that the ENSO model forecasts run in the early summer months are the most unrelable runs of the year? I thought I read that somewhere...

I really don't know the answer to your question, STS. I'll try and do some research on that and I'm sure others here may opine as well. Like any other computer modeling, I do know that some long-range models do better than others depending on the ENSO state.

Dont have to research for that question as I found the discussion about it.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... table.html

[MGC]

With the PDO in the cool phase expect more frequent and longer La Nina.....winter all depends on the NAO...if it stays negative like most of last winter expect it to be cold. We were quite cold Dec to mid Feb then it warmed up and has stayed warm.....MGC

[NDG]

I think ENSO will stay neutral through the winter, back down to a "cool" neutral but not a full blown La Nina, IMO.

[Tireman4]

I am waiting for the PWC to put out its Winter Forecast. Then I will believe.