2011 Steering Pattern/Early indicators

[Tertius]

HI Michael, can you post the link to this graphic please. My eyes are toooooo bad to make it out at this size!!!
Thanks
Chris

I believe that is the chart found here: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... cs!201104/

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 40-day 200 hPa which now brings us into the first week of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, we see that around the third-week in May, there is the most rising air across the Atlantic and Caribbean, but by the end of May into June, the trend is towards sinking air which would not favor tropical storm formation.

On the EPAC side, I wouldn't be surprised if something gets going around the middle to end of May, with rising air across the EPAC.

http://img846.imageshack.us/i/cfs.gif/

[GCANE]

Shear is forecast to remain high for at least 144hrs but getting very nice wave amplifications in the Carib.

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi at weatherbell.com posted this pm on possibility of May mischief in the Caribbean.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Joe Bastardi at weatherbell.com posted this pm on possibility of May mischief in the Caribbean.

Since he said in the next 2-3 weeks (and agreed more with 3) then by his words we shouldn't see anything until the very end of May or early June.

[srainhoutx]

MJO looks to be cooperative in about 2-3 weeks. We must be getting near the start of season...

[ROCK]

way too early IMO....shear is screaming in the carib....I would think a crossover EPAC would be more likely.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

BTW- GOM sst's are cooking....wont be long and all of this will be blue....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cycloneye]

Here is the ECMWF MSLP May update. Ummm,low pressures shown by the blue color all over the MDR,Caribbean and GOM for August,September and October. Michael,what do you think about this update?

[SFLcane]

With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore, I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

[ROCK]

With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore, I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

nicely put and I would agree....we will have more than 2 landfalling tropical systems this year I am afraid....

[Stormcenter]

As long as they are all a Cat. 2 or less then I think we all could handle that.

With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore, I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

nicely put and I would agree....we will have more than 2 landfalling tropical systems this year I am afraid....

[SETXWXLADY]

As long as they are all a Cat. 2 or less then I think we all could handle that.

With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore, I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

nicely put and I would agree....we will have more than 2 landfalling tropical systems this year I am afraid....

I don't know about that. We had a couple of particularly nasty cat 2's in 2008. Let's hope if something's gotta hit somebody it's more benign than they were.

[cycloneye]

All indications are that ENSO will be at Neutral for the Summer and possibly the fall.Those who live in the Caribbean,Bahamas and Florida will not like this graphic as the steering on average in Neutral ENSO looks like this.

[Javlin]

Neutral's always to me at least seem some of the worst seasons Luis.Might be a grin and bear it season for alot us have to wait and see.

[srainhoutx]

New Euro Seasonal outlook is out and looking only at July, August and September, areas from the Western Gulf, Florida and parts the EC do suggest lower pressures and higher rainfall amounts. Looking out a bit further into October, the MDR looks primed for long tracking systems with lower pressures across the Atlantic...

[cycloneye]

Here is the new EUROSHIP forecast for August,September and October of MSLP and it shows low pressures in the MDR,Caribbean and GOM.

[cycloneye]

Michael,is still before the peak of the season, so I post one more time in this thread the latest July Eurosip outlook for August,September and October. It looks once again as past months primed for the MDR to have long CV trackers.Also,lower pressures are in the Caribbean and GOM.



Precipitation outlook for ASO

[Ivanhater]

Looks like all heck will be breaking loose in the next 3 months, especially in the Caribbean

[CourierPR]

Looks like all heck will be breaking loose in the next 3 months, especially in the Caribbean

Buckle up everybody. It's gonna be a wild ride, I would think.