Global model runs discussion

[RL3AO]

Bastardi thinks that the GOM will shut down for development after September 7. Of course, he also said Irene would be a Florida storm.

Too be fair so did every model and the NHC.

[cycloneye]

At 180 hours,is a strong TS or hurricane. But it looks like it will avoid the NE Caribbean islands.



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[cycloneye]

At long range or lala-land,12z GFS shows Caribbean Cruisers.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[HurricaneFan]

So how strong will the ridge be for this new batch of Cape Verde Storms?
Will they all go out sea or will any slip through?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think the models are on to something:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... njava.html

[cycloneye]

The Canadian also shows East Atlantic development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HurricaneWarning92]

At least something to track in the next couple of days... well, if they verify...

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS is also with East Atlantic development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF is way more stronger than the 00z run.

[Ivanhater]

Yes it does Luis...ridging is in place but would go fishing at that angle...however, with delayed development as we have seen all this year it could trend SW. Also notice the cyclone in the BOC...GFS goes NE with it.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Bastardi thinks that the GOM will shut down for development after September 7. Of course, he also said Irene would be a Florida storm.

Wait, what? I thought Bastardi nailed OBX right from the get go. Let's check this out.

"Joe Bastardi, a former Accu-Weather meteorologist now with Weather Bell, is predicting landfall in the Carolinas, perhaps near Charleston or Myrtle Beach'.

Read more: http://obsweatherguy.blogspot.com/2011/ ... z1WAJFKBsN

[cycloneye]

I think there is a good consensus of the global models for development in the Tropical Atlantic:


GFS
CMC
NOGAPS
ECMWF

[gatorcane]

I think there is a good consensus of the global models for development in the Tropical Atlantic:


GFS
CMC
NOGAPS
ECMWF

I agree Luis, consensus is good. Looks like a near "shoe-in" storm next week (looks pretty certain we will get a named storm out of this)

Definitely another one to watch it looks like.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bastardi thinks that the GOM will shut down for development after September 7. Of course, he also said Irene would be a Florida storm.

Wait, what? I thought Bastardi nailed OBX right from the get go. Let's check this out.

"Joe Bastardi, a former Accu-Weather meteorologist now with Weather Bell, is predicting landfall in the Carolinas, perhaps near Charleston or Myrtle Beach'.

Read more: http://obsweatherguy.blogspot.com/2011/ ... z1WAJFKBsN

Perhaps I missed something? Did the Gulf ever open this year?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Bastardi thinks that the GOM will shut down for development after September 7. Of course, he also said Irene would be a Florida storm.

Wait, what? I thought Bastardi nailed OBX right from the get go. Let's check this out.

"Joe Bastardi, a former Accu-Weather meteorologist now with Weather Bell, is predicting landfall in the Carolinas, perhaps near Charleston or Myrtle Beach'.

Read more: http://obsweatherguy.blogspot.com/2011/ ... z1WAJFKBsN

Perhaps I missed something? Did the Gulf ever open this year?

Exactly what I was thinking. Remember back to all the preseason hype about how active the gulf was forecast to be and was predicted to see 7-8 landfalls if I remember correctly. Wow was that off! The way things are going I would be surprised to see more than one tropical storm around here. Pretty much if they don't get turned north up the east coast they will go west into mexico and never amount to much.


BTW what happened to the models showing a BOC storm moving north through the gulf. Saw it last night but have heard nothing about it today.

[sunnyday]

Doesn't that show another recurve, though?

[gatorcane]

Hi Cyclone Mike, plenty of time left this season for Gulf threats that is for sure.

Sunnyday, there is not a consensus from the models on whether this system will recurve or not, though the reliable ECMWF develops it and recurves it well NE of the Leewards.

Time will tell, just need to monitor it.

[lonelymike]

Joe B is an entertaining fellow IMO but I will give him credit he is very good at prediciting season patterns so he has a good chance at being right about the Gulf closing up after 9/7...we shall see.

[Portastorm]

Watch the JB comments, please, and do not forget Rule #12 from our Storm 2K Rules and Regs:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

[cycloneye]

Another run that GFS (18z) that shows the East Atlantic development.It starts at 72 hours.



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