Pouch P24L SSW of CV Islands - (Is invest 95L)

[colbroe]

I think this will be our next area of concern for the Caribbean , convection has been building for the last few hours and it has spin with it .

[cycloneye]

Is now a tropical wave.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N22W TO 17N23W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. EXAMINING RECENT UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM
DAKAR SENEGAL AND HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN AFRICA AND THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR BETWEEN 03/0600 UTC AND
03/1200 UTC ALOFT IN THE 800-900 MB RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES THE CYCLONIC ATTRIBUTES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOTION AT LOW LATITUDE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 22W-29W.

[cycloneye]

And is now pouch P24L:

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P24L.html

P24L
12N, 21W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Weak pouch that is depicted as stretched in the NW-SE. Dissipates as it gets closer to P22L on Day 3.

GFS: P24L has higher OW values than in ECMWF, and it tracks more toward the northwest. Note that while ECMWF favors P22L, GFS favors P24L. Still, even GFS dissipates P24L by 108 hours.

UKMET: Consistent story with yesterday: P24L is depicted as a small pouch that has relatively high OW values. P24L maintains itself as a separate pouch from the much weaker P22L to its west. Also, P24L moves south of west, much different than GFS. (UKMET is also keeping Katia much farther south than the other models.)

NOGAPS: Not a consistent story: Yesterday, NOGAPS dissipated P24L, but now NOGAPS definitely favors P24L. P22L dissipates by 84 hours, but P24L actually intensifies slightly and is easily tracked for all 120 hours. Like UKMET, NOGAPS has a more southern track.

HWRF-GEN: Consistent story with yesterday: Initially similar to UKMET with high OW values for a small pouch. As P24L approaches the strong (as depicted by HWRF-GEN) P22L, P24L weakens, becoming just an OW max. I stop tracking at 60 hours; however, the OW max moves off toward the northwest (like GFS) on the northeast side of the large P22L.


ECMWF -8.4 v700 96h
GFS -8.3 v700 108h
UKMET -8.5 v700 120h
NOGAPS -7.2 v700 120h
HWGEN -7.8 v700 60h

[HurricaneFan]

Is this the wave that is a TC 192 hours from now approaching the Caribbean in the Global Models thread?
What about the wave to the NW of P24L,Is it going to follow Katia's track or move more west?(P22L right?,haven't seen a thread for it)

[northjaxpro]

Is this the wave that is a TC 192 hours from now approaching the Caribbean in the Global Models thread?
What about the wave to the NW of P24L,Is it going to follow Katia's track or move more west?(P22L right?,haven't seen a thread for it)

Yeah, the wave NW of P24L had really faded until this morning when convection has made somewhat of a comeback . That wave is located approximately around 21N 40W. It looks as this wave may get caught underneath the building Atlantic ridge which is forecast to happen this week. But, we have to see if the trend of the convection continues to fire up and sustain itself for the short term. If it does, then this wave will have to be watched later this week.

As for P24L, the aforementioned ridge I mentioned above looks to build in rather strongly by the most reliable computer models and that should keep P24L cruising through the Eastern Atlantic Ocean at a rather low latitude as that system tracks westward. This system just may be a another major concern for the Caribbean in the next 7 days should it proceed to develop.

[HurricaneFan]

Is this the wave that is a TC 192 hours from now approaching the Caribbean in the Global Models thread?
What about the wave to the NW of P24L,Is it going to follow Katia's track or move more west?(P22L right?,haven't seen a thread for it)

Yeah, the wave NW of P24L had really faded until this morning when convection has made somewhat of a comeback . That wave is located approximately around 21N 40W. It looks as this wave may get caught underneath the building Atlantic ridge which is forecast to happen this week. But, we have to see if the trend of the convection continues to fire up and sustain itself for the short term. If it does, then this wave will have to be watched later this week.

As for P24L, the aforementioned ridge I mentioned above looks to build in rather strongly by the most reliable computer models and that should keep P24L cruising through the Eastern Atlantic Ocean at a rather low latitude as that system tracks westward. This system just may be a another major concern for the Caribbean in the next 7 days should it proceed to develop.

[HurricaneFan]

Is this the wave that is a TC 192 hours from now approaching the Caribbean in the Global Models thread?
What about the wave to the NW of P24L,Is it going to follow Katia's track or move more west?(P22L right?,haven't seen a thread for it)

Yeah, the wave NW of P24L had really faded until this morning when convection has made somewhat of a comeback . That wave is located approximately around 21N 40W. It looks as this wave may get caught underneath the building Atlantic ridge which is forecast to happen this week. But, we have to see if the trend of the convection continues to fire up and sustain itself for the short term. If it does, then this wave will have to be watched later this week.

As for P24L, the aforementioned ridge I mentioned above looks to build in rather strongly by the most reliable computer models and that should keep P24L cruising through the Eastern Atlantic Ocean at a rather low latitude as that system tracks westward. This system just may be a another major concern for the Caribbean in the next 7 days should it proceed to develop.

Thanks.
But I don't see how they could place the center at 21N 39W,I don't see anything there.

[Sanibel]

I want to see the models on this to see if we finally have a low-runner.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WWD AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 16N24W TO 10N22W. UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES
FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATES THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA AROUND 24 HOURS AGO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
EXTENDS OVER TO ABOUT 18N WITH HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED IN LOW
LATITUDES AROUND 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
MAINLY SW OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

[northjaxpro]

Is this the wave that is a TC 192 hours from now approaching the Caribbean in the Global Models thread?
What about the wave to the NW of P24L,Is it going to follow Katia's track or move more west?(P22L right?,haven't seen a thread for it)

Yeah, the wave NW of P24L had really faded until this morning when convection has made somewhat of a comeback . That wave is located approximately around 21N 40W. It looks as this wave may get caught underneath the building Atlantic ridge which is forecast to happen this week. But, we have to see if the trend of the convection continues to fire up and sustain itself for the short term. If it does, then this wave will have to be watched later this week.

As for P24L, the aforementioned ridge I mentioned above looks to build in rather strongly by the most reliable computer models and that should keep P24L cruising through the Eastern Atlantic Ocean at a rather low latitude as that system tracks westward. This system just may be a another major concern for the Caribbean in the next 7 days should it proceed to develop.

Thanks.
But I don't see how they could place the center at 21N 39W,I don't see anything there.

Yeah, NHC adjusted the position of that wave NW of P24L on their 2:00 p.m. TWD. They now position that wave at 19N 41W.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Has flared some nice convection in the past few hours

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r4_floater

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Current upper divergence looks good



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Current lower convergence looks good


Uploaded with ImageShack.us


What may be a limiting factor for now is the proximity to the ITCZ. Lets continue to monitor it as it starts to gain a little more latitude...

[ROCK]

which area is it... the northern area or the southern area? They are really close together....

[cycloneye]

which area is it... the northern area or the southern area? They are really close together....

There is 24.



Saved image.

[ROCK]

got it thanks...

[blazess556]

Seems like the 00z GFS gives this more of a shot. tries to close a low off with this.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, according to the NWS discussion a couple of days ago, whatever forms now(over the next 7 to 10 days) probably won't be recurving because of the pattern change....So we need to keep an eye out for sure.

[abajan]

This certainly looks like it means business:

[cycloneye]

The thread is locked as is now invest 95L. Continue the discussions about this system at Active Storms/invests forum,on the invest 95L discussion thread. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111794&hilit=&start=0