ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

Climate Prediction Center Weekly update of 6/18/12

The MJO wave has caused the pacific to warm even more than before and now Nino 3.4 is up to +0.3C up from +0.1C that was last week. It looks inevitable now that El Nino will come soon.The question is how strong it will be.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

it might warm further as the forecast has the mjo lingering over the western hemisphere



i predict elnino before august...

[Ntxw]

It is interesting to note that most of June the SOI has spent way more time negative than positive. Even as the MJO/Kelvin wave having moved east, the pattern in the southern ocean still allows for good negative values to flare. I think we have transitioned (in the atmosphere) close to a El Nino regime. The eastern basin is very, very warm so even with easterlies I doubt this phenomenon will even cool. If anything it might add to the warming now that clearly an east based nino has already arrived.

[Kingarabian]

I knew it would El-Nino because May was seriously hot.

[Kingarabian]

Latest SOI dropped keeps going negative.
If the pacific keeps it up we could have El-nino in a few

[joshb19882004]

today soi is moderately negative
Average for last 30 days -8.1
Average for last 90 days -4.6
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -19.4

[cycloneye]

Neutral is still hanging barely for August,September and October in this early June update. The mid June graphic with all the ENSO Models updated will come later today or tommorow.

[Ntxw]

Gfs and euro are predicting a monster high at darwin in several days. And it means business, we're talking -50s soi!!! Even if it partially verifies -30s are likely. More tanking continues, that will bring the 30 day crashing and set off el nino for sure.

[joshb19882004]

another day of - soi values
SOI values for 20 Jun 2012 Average for last 30 days -8.4
Average for last 90 days -4.8
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -11.3

check the Australian climate site there nino 3.4 reads 0.4
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Ntxw]

Upwelling is occuring in the central and western basins. 3.4 and 4 have filled in this week. The forecasted major crash of the SOI is still in play from the dynamical models (-30s, -40s or more) soon. Pressures in Darwin will read higher than 1016mb which has not been seen since the last Nino back in 2010. Nino is on the doorstep if not already here. Another key evident is blocking in North America. Not always the case but Ninos favor lengthy -NAO features in the north Atlantic as seen much in June.



Aside from ENSO notice the very cold anomalies in northern Australia. This suppresses convection around Darwin which is why SOI has held mostly negative in the month of June.

A little side note. The oncoming (strong) Nino of 1997-1998 looked like this, however it came a month sooner in May vs June. Now I do not believe we are in for that kind of a Nino (cold PDO) but the similarities can't be overlooked. The eastern basin started baking first.

[joshb19882004]

wow a big plunge in the 30 soi graph

[joshb19882004]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png

[cycloneye]

Is immiment now the presence of El Nino as this Mid-June update of the ENSO models confirm. The only question left is when it will be officially declared and how strong it will be.

http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[Ntxw]

Convective bursts with westerlies continue to fire in ENSO 3.4 region as yet another Kelvin wave will flare up. The next few updates by CPC will be interesting to follow in regards to the Nino.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

In Canada and the northern US, the additional heat strengthens and alters the path of the JET STREAM - the high-altitude, fast-moving river of air that steers weather systems around the world. What happens to North American weather in the weeks following the onset of El Niño largely depends on whether the jet stream remains a single stream or splits in 2. A single jet stream curving north over BC then plunging south through the centre of the continent brings colder temperatures to the Great Lakes and eastern North America. At the same time, a high pressure system stalls over the Rocky Mountains, preventing moist Pacific air from moving inland. Mild, dry weather then dominates western Canada and the northwestern US. If the jet stream splits, its extreme northern branch tends to create storms in the Gulf of Alaska and warm temperatures in western Canada. The southern branch delivers more storms to California, Texas and Florida before moving up the east coast of North America.

It is difficult to predict what type of weather an El Niño will bring to North America, since each occurrence varies greatly in strength and impact. In the winter of 1982-83, very mild Pacific air penetrated eastward to the Great Lakes and beyond. Yet 6 years earlier, southern Ontario suffered a cold winter while the West experienced balmy temperatures during a weaker El Niño.

For people who depend on the weather for their livelihood, El Niño has both good and bad side effects. For BC salmon fishermen, it can be good news as Fraser River-bound sockeye opt for cooler waters, making them available to Canadian fishermen only. On the other hand, schools of hungry mackerel riding the El Niño wave may devour young sockeye stock. To Prairie farmers anxious to see soil moisture replenished ( after this year ) , El Niño's usually snow-free winter is not welcome news. On the other hand, an El Niño year also correlates with a warmer, wetter spring , which increases spring wheat yields.

La Nina/Neutral brought us a dry winter in 2012 and the 2nd wettest spring in this province's history (and 2011 had an exceptionally wet spring too). I really don't trust what they say re what either one could bring us now.

[joshb19882004]

-40s in the daily soi
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 24 Jun 2012 Average for last 30 days -9.6
Average for last 90 days -5.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -41.2

[euro6208]

Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day avg SOI 90 day avg SOI

24 Jun 2012 1011.98 1016.55 -41.19 -9.59 -5.34

wow! it went from -8.72 to -41.19!...

20120524,20120622,-8.8

at this rate, el nino might be here before the second half of july!!!

[Ntxw]

Was a good forecast call by the models. Darwin pressures indeed went through the roof. As big a tank today's SOI was I don't think this is the peak. Tomorrow's may go even higher if not the next day.

[cycloneye]

Nice mountain forecast by CFSv2. Looks like a lovely winter for many in the U.S.

[Kingarabian]

Question: Does the CPC use the SOI values in any of it's forecasts?

[joshb19882004]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

SOI AT -41 lowest daily June value since 2009, next 2004 then 2002