Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

[Nikki]

I don't know enough about weather to benefit any conversation with this wave, I just wanted to say Thank You to everyone who is posting about it and other waves as well, I follow every topic dealing with waves, TS, HUR no matter where they are progged to make landfall. What you all do is amazing and I appreciate all your time and effort!!

[Gustywind]

I don't know enough about weather to benefit any conversation with this wave, I just wanted to say Thank You to everyone who is posting about it and other waves as well, I follow every topic dealing with waves, TS, HUR no matter where they are progged to make landfall. What you all do is amazing and I appreciate all your time and effort!!

Thanks to you! That's a very nice post as your great comment, we appreciate . With the Storm2k team you will discover and learn much with the time. No matter for that you're on the good the side and weathersite

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH
OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Hurricane Andrew]

Do you think they will invest it?

[ouragans]

I don't think they will invest it until 30%, but best track has one eye on it from now

[climaguy]

Do you think they will invest it?

Probably not until the models give it some more love. None have it developing at this point. GFS keeps it intact for the most part and develops it a bit but opens it up before it gets to the Leewards.

[Kingarabian]

I don't know if it's just me but it has that 'about to poof' look on it :/.

[JamesCaneTracker]

I don't know if it's just me but it has that 'about to poof' look on it :/.

lol if you watch the loops then you would see that convection is increasing...

If by poof you mean it's about to weaken to nothing then I would say it still has life in it...

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF looses the 850mb vorticity by Friday and the 18zGFS keeps a well defined 850mb vorticity throughout the trip thru Hurricane Alley....Interesting wave to track the next few days

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shear doesn't look all that strong out there over the next several days, surprisingly. Main issue is there is a lot of dry, stable, sinking air all the way into the Leewards as seen on wide view Atlantic WV loop. That alone should keep this system in check. Has a nice spin though and I believe the 10% chance makes sense but any development is going to be very slow. Chances are this won't develop folks and my prediction is that it will not, it's early to be looking that far out anyway.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Few wave-originating systems
2005....Dennis....July 4
2008....Bertha.....
2010.....Alex.....July 20 or something like that.....

[abajan]

I don't know if it's just me but it has that 'about to poof' look on it :/.

lol if you watch the loops then you would see that convection is increasing...

The convection seems to be waning to me.

[Hurricaneman]

This wave I don't believe will become anything in the next 5 days, but once it gets into the Caribbean it could be a different story

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

I have been watching this little guy and though it lacks convection due to the stable air moving with it, it does have good rotation. See here. Nice structure.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE..IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N37W TO 14N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A WEAK MONSOONAL 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
09N. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL MONSOON
GYRE THAT IS SET UP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 33W-40W AND
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT ALONG 39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

[Aric Dunn]

still looking pretty decent this morning a small increase in convection close to the low center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[jinftl]

Even though we are a good 4-6 weeks from the typical start of the cape verde season (past noteable exceptions aside), this is a reminder that we will need to start looking all over the basin for development!

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Not looking bad at this time. The big test for the wave will be if it survives the sal that is in the Atlantic.