ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

SOI continues to be positive. maybe the el nino has peaked.

Enso does not peak until southern hemisphere Spring or Summer.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the daily SST anomalies, there seems to be a large surge in warm anomalies coming from the South American coast from the south that has wiped out the cooler waters just south of the equator heading north/northwest which has been the reason for 1+2's recent warming. The MJO is in the eastern Indian Ocean and moving into the Maritime Continent. I am curious to see how these two features will couple (possible significant kelvin wave) in the coming days to weeks.





There is also warm waters growing in northeast Australia which would arise northeastward if the MJO were indeed to progress.

[dexterlabio]

^based on the graphic, if i'm seeing this right, the warming has spread out and the cold pool west of Baja seems to have warmed as well. this is telling me El Nino is hanging on there waiting to kick in, BUT the SOI is still confusing me. Dailys become positive for some days and if this keeps up there will be a delay for sure. Should El Nino set in by September-October, daily SOI must be increasingly and consistently negative at this point, isn't it?

[euro6208]

this el nino surely taking it's time to develop

[NDG]

No wonder there is no comparison to 2009, that the Atlantic has been more active than that year.
Modoki anyone, look how warmer the eastern Pacific was for the same time compared to this year.




Edit: I would expect that at least September if not through mid October for the acitivity in the Atlantic to at least be average.

[Ntxw]

No wonder there is no comparison to 2009, that the Atlantic has been more active than that year.
Modoki anyone, look how warmer the eastern Pacific was for the same time compared to this year.
.

You're right there is no comparison to 2009. That year featured Bill a cat 4 by now and another major in early Sept Fred.

[Ntxw]

Also July/August MEI should be released next week. Lets see if it remains unusually high or drop. It will be telling of how the atmosphere is reacting to the warmer anomalies. ONI should come out within first two weeks also.

I am also going out on a limb and predict that the CPC will change the El Nino watch and officially introduce El Nino within the next 2 updates (They have mentioned August or September) for June/July/August

[Ptarmigan]

I think this should be a weak to moderate El Nino. The atmosphere is not showing any signs of El Nino yet.

[Kingarabian]

No wonder there is no comparison to 2009, that the Atlantic has been more active than that year.
Modoki anyone, look how warmer the eastern Pacific was for the same time compared to this year.
.

You're right there is no comparison to 2009. That year featured Bill a cat 4 by now and another major in early Sept Fred.

[cycloneye]

Certainly,El Nino is taking it's time to show up. Will it ever be declared?

[NDG]

No wonder there is no comparison to 2009, that the Atlantic has been more active than that year.
Modoki anyone, look how warmer the eastern Pacific was for the same time compared to this year.
.

You're right there is no comparison to 2009. That year featured Bill a cat 4 by now and another major in early Sept Fred.

Yeah, 1992 had Cat 5 Andrew by now

Come on, you know what I mean.

Why would you not admit that El Nino Modoki have greater activity in the Atlantic than during an east based El Nino.
2009 had a wopping 53 ACE total and a total of 3 hurricanes, so far in 2012 five hurricances have formed and with Leslie forecasted to become the 6th hurricane of the season.
As of tonight this year is already above 40 ACE and adding, this same time in 2009 the Atlantic only had 30.19 ACE total, your Cat 4 Bill made 85% of that number.
So far this year is 35% more active than 2009.
With Leslie forecasted to become a hurricane and possilby a major hurricane, just with that storm chances of passing 2009's total number is pretty good I would say and with September still to go....
If it was not for the dry air floating around the tropical Atlantic I would guarantee you that there would had been at least one major hurricane in the Atlantic by now.

[Ntxw]

This is my first year trying to link Enso with hurricane season. I do admit my knowledge on it is rather limited. The term "modoki" is subjective because not every El Nino is the same at every point in the season so the classification is blurry especially when you're not looking back in retrospect. As I have posted before the research I did about what years is modoki or not the data given suggest 2004 was not the only Modoki. Whether I believe it or not that's what the data says so I can't argue it.

This season is active, but by numbers and not so much quality. Development has close in or subtropics so far (yes leslie and kirk will change that a bit) and that's not too different than what typical El Nino years. El Nino especially weak does not mean an inactive year. But many people deny it is there, when it is. MEI is not some crazy number that is made up it is actual measurements of the atmosphere conditions along WITH sea temps. And it is higher than 2009. I cannot argue that either.

This Nino is NOT 2009. But looking at the different data given 2009 and 2002 have been the nearest match, not 2004.

Edit 2002 and 2009 were not dead years either so I don't know where people get the implication it was shut down. Ida was a cat 2 way in November in 09, and 2002 had Isadore and Lilli both of which were formidable.

[NDG]

Definitely 2002 was no dead season but I am one of them that say that 2009 was a shut down year, when a year only has two named storms even with one becoming a hurricane in the month of September way by the CV islands and that as soon it started moving towards the central Atlantic it degenerated into a TD, is a shut down year in my books, IMO.

[South Texas Storms]

Ntxw, I couldn't tell from today's updated SST map if Nino 3.4 warmed or cooled slighty this week. Maybe it will stay at +.6 C on next Monday's CPC update?

[Ntxw]

It's a bit early to tell South Texas Storms today, Sunday will give a better idea. Eastern Nino regions have recovered a bit this week and moving into the 3.4 areas with a big burst of warming so I'm guessing a warm up in Monday's update if it persist maybe even a lot since last week. Here is loop for daily's.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

Nino 3.4 is between 170 and 120W

[South Texas Storms]

It's a bit early to tell South Texas Storms today, Sunday will give a better idea. Eastern Nino regions have recovered a bit this week and moving into the 3.4 areas with a big burst of warming so I'm guessing a warm up in Monday's update if it persist maybe even a lot since last week. Here is loop for daily's.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

Nino 3.4 is between 170 and 120W

Thanks for posting that link showing the loop of the daily's! I can clearly see the warming across Nino 3.4 over the past several days now. I'm surprised at this because the MJO isn't favorable for warming and the SOI's show no sign of tanking for at least the next 5 days. Are you surprised that the big burst of warming is occuring right now?

[Ntxw]

Thanks for posting that link showing the loop of the daily's! I can clearly see the warming across Nino 3.4 over the past several days now. I'm surprised at this because the MJO isn't favorable for warming and the SOI's show no sign of tanking for at least the next 5 days. Are you surprised that the big burst of warming is occuring right now?

Sub-surface temps suggest constant slow warming until peak (probably OND or NDJ). Central based Ninos are most susceptible to short term MJO influence unlike EP Ninos. An unfavorable MJO phase works to hold off the warming a bit but when it's no longer unfavorable, warming resumes. MJO currently isn't unfavorable nor favorable. This is why we've seen ups and downs but overall it does not effect too much in the grand scheme. It also explains SOI being up and down but the nino anomalies have pretty much held over 0.5c despite days of positives. MJO noise.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, whats funny is that while the EPac certainly warmed, the CPac cooled... Hasn't it been like this all season where if the Central basin gets warming the Eastern one cools?

[Ntxw]

^ seems so can't seem to get his act together fast enough! Such a tease.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks for posting that link showing the loop of the daily's! I can clearly see the warming across Nino 3.4 over the past several days now. I'm surprised at this because the MJO isn't favorable for warming and the SOI's show no sign of tanking for at least the next 5 days. Are you surprised that the big burst of warming is occuring right now?

Sub-surface temps suggest constant slow warming until peak (probably OND or NDJ). Central based Ninos are most susceptible to short term MJO influence unlike EP Ninos. An unfavorable MJO phase works to hold off the warming a bit but when it's no longer unfavorable, warming resumes. MJO currently isn't unfavorable nor favorable. This is why we've seen ups and downs but overall it does not effect too much in the grand scheme. It also explains SOI being up and down but the nino anomalies have pretty much held over 0.5c despite days of positives. MJO noise.

Ah ok that makes sense to me now. So when will this Nino event start to affect our weather? Can we expect many storm systems dumping heavy rains across Texas (probably from cut-off lows?) from say October to April? Does that time range sound about right?