Global model runs discussion

['CaneFreak]

Wow...I never even saw that we were in that phase of the MJO right now...interesting...that explains a lot...thanks for posting that guys!

I wanted to make note about looking at the models long range. Suppression is kicking into the Atlantic basin, the stuff coming off the African train has a chance to develop if they can do it quickly. Anything else shown in the longer range I would question more than recently as conditions in the basin will gradually become unfavorable.

Fortunately this suppression may be the culprit to the dry air arising near Isaac lately and has kept him from getting out of hand thus far.

I was just about to say, conditions are already unfavorable right now, just look at Isaac! How does a strong TS struggle in the GOM during peak season? Add to that the NHC calling the GOM conditions "very favorable" and you get Issac as is.

[rainstorm]

I wanted to make note about looking at the models long range. Suppression is kicking into the Atlantic basin, the stuff coming off the African train has a chance to develop if they can do it quickly. Anything else shown in the longer range I would question more than recently as conditions in the basin will gradually become unfavorable. Now this does not mean a rogue storm can't develop just that the environment to keep storms going is not as good as this past week.

Fortunately this suppression may be the culprit to the dry air arising near Isaac lately and has kept him from getting out of hand thus far.

now we will get a major....just inxed us all!!!

its not like the positive phase did anything, lol

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS: 120hr

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS: 168hr

recurve

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS: 216hr

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS: 264hr

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Someone posted a map in the Isaac thread earlier of the GFS showing another gulf system in the 300hr time frame about in the same location as Isaac. When was that from and other models showing anything?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Someone posted a map in the Isaac thread earlier of the GFS showing another gulf system in the 300hr time frame about in the same location as Isaac. When was that from and other models showing anything?

That was the GFS yesterday buit it has backed off that solution, but it's 300 hours out so don't pay attention to the models that far out.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks, and I know better than that. Just caught my attention. And plus giving the GFS much more credit this year than before.

[HurricaneFan]

Well it looks like the models are agreeing that 98L will be an ocean storm(after first agreeing on a landfall).
But what are the models saying about the Wave behind that?(a little off the coast of Africa now)
Will it follow 98L path or would it make it to the Lesser Antilles?And how much are they developing it,if at all?

[pricetag56]

You know its peak of the hurricane season when you look from the MDR back into Africa. Several well defined waves lined up what are the models doing wit these?

[cycloneye]

It looks like something tries to form in the SW Caribbean on very long range of GFS.Let's see if it continues to show it on future runs or is a phanthom.

[somethingfunny]

Oh goodness... watch the 0z or 12z ECMWF 850mb vorticity loop. It looks like it wants to keep Isaac's vorticity distinct and bring it offshore around Georgia or the Carolinas and redevelop it.... and then it would drift southeast and then northeast before being picked up by the wake of Leslie.

If this scenario actually verifies, it might be named Michael or Nadine.... or Isaac. I think there could be some "considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion" at the NHC again.

[cycloneye]

This is very long range from GFS so keep in mind that aspect. It shows that in two weeks,the Atlantic will be fairly active if this model is right.Let's see if next runs continue with this activity.

[somethingfunny]

That cold front clearing the Gulf Coast next weekend and stalling out in the second week of September makes me suspect we'll be getting some homegrown spin-ups from it, either in the Gulf or out over the Gulf Stream, or both.

[ROCK]

EURO shows a close low coming across the MDR next week....something to keep an eye on....also maybe a BOC / NW low getting going per the GFS in the long range.

[cycloneye]

EURO shows a close low coming across the MDR next week....something to keep an eye on....also maybe a BOC / NW low getting going per the GFS in the long range.

Is the first GFS run that shows the BOC system so you know the drill.



What will favor tropical activity after the 15th will be the wet MJO that will invade the Caribbean,GOM and MDR.

[ROCK]

yeah Luis its going to pick up here real soon....sure there is this lull for about a week then the switch should be turned on...that a veryyyy deep system at 360hr in the BOC....ouch...

[mcheer23]

Last 2 GFS models have a strong system near the Texas/ Mexico border

[Hurricaneman]

around 5 to 6 days from now the GFS shows a low forming in North Carolina and sliding offshore, could this be some homebrew tropical system, the poster somethingfunny picked out that possibility