Nothern GOM for new storm formation? (Is invest 90L)

[rainstorm]

im not sure if this will be renamed isaac if it redevelops but JB is getting excited.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Weatherbell ignoring the ham sandwich in the atlantic, but letting folks know the northern gulf may become a breeding ground later in week!

[JonathanBelles]

This will not be Isaac in any shape or form

[rainstorm]

i see.

[caneman]

I don't see anyone talking about this. It looks like it is about to step its toes into the GOM. Any chance with this system? Was this Isaac?

[N2Storms]

[quote="caneman"]I don't see anyone talking about this. It looks like it is about to step its toes into the GOM. Any chance with this system? Was this Isaac?[/quote]


Excerpt from Tallahassee NWS AFD...


SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday NIGHT]...
The forecast has become a bit more complicated thanks to the low
to mid-level disturbance which is forecast to move into the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight or early Wednesday.
While significant development of this feature is not anticipated,
the guidance is in good agreement in developing a closed surface
CIRCULATION over the next day of so as the system meanders
somewhere south of the Florida Panhandle. With this evolution,
would expect the best lift and MOISTURE across the region to be
associated with this feature. This will place the best rain
chances through Wednesday across the panhandle and possibly into
the western Big Bend. Will go with likely PoPs for these areas for
Wednesday into Wednesday night. As the system drifts southward,
expect some drying across the northern portion of the forecast
area on Wednesday, with this trend pushing southward for Thursday.
However, this portion of the forecast remains rather uncertain
depending on how far into the Gulf the disturbance pushes.

[tailgater]

Turn your head Ethel, don't look. NAKED SWIRL alert!!!!!
I know this isn't what this thread is about, I just didn't want to start a new thread.

[Riptide]

Desperate times on storm2k.

[caneman]

I wouldn't say that feature getting ready to head in the NE GOM is desperate. Worth watching IMO

[bamajammer4eva]

According to NWS Tallahassee's Flash Flood watch issued this afternoon, this is in fact Isaac. On the front page of Accuweather, they also say the same thing as does Joe Bastardi. This is from NWS Tallahassee

* A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ISSAC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS COULD GENERATE UP TO FOUR
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS...CREEKS...POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS... AND IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

[northjaxpro]

I am not entirely sure what NHC would do should this develop in the GOM in terms of naming this entity. However, the NWS is identifying this feature as Isaac's remnants.

[WeatherGuesser]

Isaac Jr.?

Little Izzy?

Isaac, The Sequel?

[cycloneye]

10%.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES
OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

10%.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES
OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

It looks like it isn't Isaac's remnants.

[CrazyC83]

I do think this is Isaac reborn?

[cycloneye]

I do think this is Isaac reborn?

No mention of the name at TWO. But maybe that could change with more analysis.

[CrazyC83]

The first clue is on NRL and ATCF, will it show up as an Isaac extension or a new Invest?

[frederic79]

This reminds me of Ivan. Remember the remnants coming back into the GOM to regenerate?

[superstareporter]

Ivan regenerated well before the Gulf of Mexico. But yes, I remember it all to well. I was hit twice by Ivan. I lost my home to Ivan and moved into a motorhome touring the country for 4 years photographing lost shoes on the side of the road. Quite a life-changing experience. But I digress. We have been getting some good rains, but no wind, so not sure if anything is at the surface of any substance.

[N2FSU]

Crown Weather Services did an update on this area this evening, calling for possible development of "the ghost of Isaac" into a Tropical Storm in the NE Gulf in the next 48 hours.

[WeatherGuesser]

SPC is still referencing it:

...CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN/EVE...
SFC HEATING ON WRN AND SWRN FRINGE OF REMNANT UPR VORT FROM ISAAC
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN MS SSE
TO THE CNTRL GULF CST LATER TODAY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT REGION
LARGELY WILL BE EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL OVER EVEN NEGATIVE DCVA. RICH
LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND MODERATELY VEERING DEEP WIND PROFILES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN FOSTER SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL OR TWO POSING A RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_prt.html