SE Gulf / Florida East Coast

[Dean4Storms]

Storm trying to form?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

There is a mid level rotation, don't see any obs supporting one at the surface. But needs to be watched today!

[BigA]

This looks like a mesoscale convective system with strong mid-level rotation but no rotation at the surface. These seem to occur a fair amount in the Gulf during May and June. Regardless, if it holds together it will give south Florida and the Keys a good pelting.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree BigA, if this was later May or June there could be some development, but SST's even down there are upper 70's so I would imagine it might feel like a Tropical Storm in some heavier convection but not in actuality.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Don't freak out with this as is only a test. ATCF is doing a invest al78 test for this area. But is a impressive test with a simulated hurricane in the area.

[chaser1]

Upper air divergence not looking too bad?!! Still, unless the intense cluster of cells were able to maintain its explosive near term bursting, I just cant see how this would maintain itself beyond early evening. I think someone already made reference to this, but there doesnt seem to be much in the way of any evidence of a surface reflection. I am guessing that "if" this feature were to move a bit faster towards the east or ENE, than the inland South Florida heating (away from the present overall cloud shield) would certainly result in some fairly widespread areas to receive 4-8 inches of rain. Am actually surprised that there is not a number of flood watches out for much of South Florida at the time.

[cycloneye]

No surface low on the 12z TAFB Surface Analysis.

[SouthFloridawx]

Certainly looks like some banding going on, but radar looking at the mid-levels here:

[wxman57]

Any rotation is in the mid levels. Obs don't indicate any surface feature.

[cycloneye]

Here is an ASCAT pass made around 15:00z. Maybe a weak surface reflection to the west of main complex?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like it weakened as it moved inland.

[Hurricane Alexis]

12 CMC shows a fairly decent low moving through the southern tip of FL and the keys.

[northjaxpro]

No surface reflection at the surface currently in the Eastern/SE GOM
_________________________________

NHC TWD 2 PM

excerpt

_________________________________

THE GULF OF MEXICO...


...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER
IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

From the NWS Miami AFD.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OFCONVECTION IS ALSO CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING SO
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECMWF apparently is more robust with the development of a Low in the Eastern Gulf tomorrow.


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Subtropical rogue storm develops over gulf tomorrow,moves east across florida with gales s/central fla and 6-10 inches of rain some places

[Aric Dunn]

though i dont think anything going to become of it. Obs and satellite showing a surface circ has developed. it funny though now it looks like a sheared TC lol


even some convection appears to be around that small circ... maybe a little hybrid

[Hurricane Alexis]

though i dont think anything going to become of it. Obs and satellite showing a surface circ has developed. it funny though now it looks like a sheared TC lol


even some convection appears to be around that small circ... maybe a little hybrid

Where's the surface circ at?

[Aric Dunn]

though i dont think anything going to become of it. Obs and satellite showing a surface circ has developed. it funny though now it looks like a sheared TC lol


even some convection appears to be around that small circ... maybe a little hybrid

Where's the surface circ at?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


off naples.

Could be part of what the models have been hitting at. or could get off the east coast and deepen and eventually become a subtropical system.

[cycloneye]

The TAFB 18z surface analysis doesn't have a surface low in the GOM. The closest one is in Louisiana.