Trough of Low Pressure in Eastern Pacific (Is Invest 94E)

[hurricanes1234]

This is the discussion thread for the trough of low pressure in the eastern Pacific south of Mexico. It currently has a 10% chance of development within the next 48 hours. Here is the 5:00 AM PDT outlook from the NHC:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.

Will this system become our next hurricane, or even our first major hurricane? Or will it fizzle out before time? Here is the place to post your thoughts! Guests and readers, remember, these posts are not official!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

Is this the one the models bring towards the Baja?

[hurricanes1234]

Is this the one the models bring towards the Baja?

I haven't seen any of the models yet, but do they predict it to become a hurricane? How favourable are the conditions up there?

[RL3AO]

The Euro has been pretty bullish with this one. The GFS is a bit weaker, but makes landfall over Baja California. The Euro just misses landfall.

[hurricanes1234]

The Euro has been pretty bullish with this one. The GFS is a bit weaker, but makes landfall over Baja California. The Euro just misses landfall.

What category does the Euro make it? Which of these models (Euro and GFS) is more reliable in terms of strength? The TWO says it could form into a depression by the middle of next week.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd keep post like this in the seasonal thread, less of a pain.

But yea, this should form. Me personally I am not a big fan of the Euro.



CMC does keep if offshore, but has it as a hurricane.

[supercane4867]

CMC dissipates it just offshore California, could cause a rainfall event if pan out

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH

[supercane4867]

What category does the Euro make it? Which of these models (Euro and GFS) is more reliable in terms of strength? The TWO says it could form into a depression by the middle of next week.

Normally the GFS does better on intensity forecast, but the ECMWF has been painfully conservative this year
The ECMWF actually make it a hurricane, It's interesting that it start showing something that strong,

[supercane4867]

According to ECMWF and GFS this one could pull a Katrina(1967) track

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 94E. Go to the 94E thread to continue with the discussions.