Global model runs discussion

[Cyclenall]

16 day GFS shows 2 more weeks of quiet activity. Only 1 system develops and that is on day 16

I don't know whether to feel this:



or this:

Another reason why I love this hobby!!

Well you won't be lovin' it after this season. Unless your niche is in unexpected quietness and stats.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well there are always nor'easters, late Autumn and Winter are just around the corner, I guess.............

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

absolutely nothing. it does show a high beginning to build where it needs to build, but does it lock in and grow or simply head out for the next trof?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

nothing.

[tolakram]

Keep hugging those models that validate your opinions. Just be careful that you completely understand how they do their predictions and when and where they might be wrong. I don't completely understand it, so I look to the pros who have said improving conditions are on the way when X, Y, and Z happens.

The MJO is finally on the move.

[WeatherEmperor]

Keep hugging those models that validate your opinions. Just be careful that you completely understand how they do their predictions and when and where they might be wrong. I don't completely understand it, so I look to the pros who have said improving conditions are on the way when X, Y, and Z happens.

The MJO is finally on the move.

I am glad you brought that up. Why is it bad to follow what models say? If models were showing tropical cyclone after tropical cyclone, we would be told see the models are right. And these improving conditions you are talking about....they were supposed to be here by now...but they arent totally yet. Instead of going back and forth about how fast improving conditions will arrive, why cant we just let mother nature do what mother nature wants? Also, why cant everybody, pro met and amateaur alike just admit that maybe we dont know as much about predicting hurricanes as we think we know?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[tolakram]

I am glad you brought that up. Why is it bad to follow what models say? If models were showing tropical cyclone after tropical cyclone, we would be told see the models are right. And these improving conditions you are talking about....they were supposed to be here by now...but they arent totally yet. Instead of going back and forth about how fast improving conditions will arrive, why cant we just let mother nature do what mother nature wants? Also, why cant everybody, pro met and amateaur alike just admit that maybe we dont know as much about predicting hurricanes as we think we know?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

To understand the models you have to understand how they operate and past verification of how accurate they are. In the 5 day time frame, for example, most of the models miss over 50% of development.

Knowing this, why would anyone look to the models to tell them, definitively, if the season was about to pick up?

We have been told that the MJO pulse was going to be strong and should increase chances of development once it moves into the Atlantic. For the past week the pulse has increased in strength but has not moved out of the EPAC, now it is moving (or drifting) this way.

Does this mean more tropical storms? I'm not qualified to answer that, I'm just observing and trying to document so I have a better idea next time around.

The GFS and Euro both have a clear factual record of performance. Any discussion about A not happening because model B doesn't show it is simply ignoring the facts and possibilities. This report on model performance was linked to earlier, here it is again: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2504 - The paper looked at 135 Atlantic genesis events over the period 2004 - 2011, as predicted by five global computer weather forecast models: the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and Canadian GEM.

Graph of probabilities over all hours (6 to 96 hours)



For all hours the best performance is still 50/50, with the UK, Euro, and GFS within 5% of each other. I take this to mean that if a model predicts genesis in day 1-5 and genesis happens somewhere in that time frame then the model scores a hit. In addition, statistics were measured as to how well models did at each time frame, with a model scoring a hit if it predicted genesis at the time that it happened. In 2011 the GFS was best with a paltry 22% detection rate.

[Cyclenall]

Well there are always nor'easters, late Autumn and Winter are just around the corner, I guess.............

I see your obsessed with nor'easters, the thing is they aren't as fascinating usually as tropical cyclones are since they take very predictable paths, and don't reach 140 knots sustained like a TC can.

why cant we just let mother nature do what mother nature wants? Also, why cant everybody, pro met and amateaur alike just admit that maybe we dont know as much about predicting hurricanes as we think we know?

The first sentence doesn't fit into the science model of thought (ie: no point) but the 2nd part, seasonal number forecasts: Yes; Intensity forecasts: No. Everyone has been on the same page since the beginning of time that we don't understand intensity anywhere near enough to be accurate yet.

[ninel conde]

Keep hugging those models that validate your opinions. Just be careful that you completely understand how they do their predictions and when and where they might be wrong. I don't completely understand it, so I look to the pros who have said improving conditions are on the way when X, Y, and Z happens.

The MJO is finally on the move.

if you read my post about the cap at 10000 ft you will see where greg postel isnt impressed. maybe the models have the input about the temps at 10k and thats why they never show anything. cmc might not take that into account.

[tolakram]

Who? Weather Channel? Sure, ok. I would not know if he was wrong or right.

Updated plot, really making the eastward progression now.



Increasing in amplitude as well.

[tolakram]

Just adding this for reference. What a difference a few days make.

saved WV image

[supercane4867]

12z GFS showing a possible major hurricane 10 days from now, I'm tired of the ghost storms though...

[Hammy]

12z GFS showing a possible major hurricane 10 days from now, I'm tired of the ghost storms though...

If it keeps showing hurricanes and we get nothing, now that its showing a major, maybe it means we might actually get a weak depression out of it.

[cycloneye]

Euro agreeing with GFS. That is big news in the 2013 season.

[supercane4867]

Euro agreeing with GFS. That is big news in the 2013 season.

What a miracle

[TheStormExpert]

There's still hope!!

[Hurricaneman]

Euro agreeing with GFS. That is big news in the 2013 season.

What a miracle

the GFS has quite a bit less ridging than the Euro after about 60W so this would be a possible threat on the Euro but a fish on the GFS. Probably the GFS dumping the ridge too quickly like its known to do

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[sponger]

I would imagine that when conditions imrpove we could see some heavy tropical action. There is alot of heat that has not been distributed yet. Another Andrew year? Just my amateur opinion.

[CrazyC83]

If that is the case, it would likely be a - unless it slams CV first.

[Hammy]

Didn't the Euro agree with the GFS on 96L and yet nothing came of it?

[Hurricaneman]

Didn't the Euro agree with the GFS on 96L and yet nothing came of it?

Nope, the Euro developed a broad low which it ended up being

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products