Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Many will ask why I am making a thread about something in Africa after an anemic CV season in 2013. My answer is that this pouch may do something down the road in the next couple of weeks if it gets a pocket of favorable conditions while it deals with the dry air in MDR. If I am not mistaken,I think some models hint of something trying to have weak development from this area so let's follow the pouch on it's long journey.





P42L
12N, 7E
700 hPa


ECMWF: Straight WNW track. Moderate OW for much of the five days, with a sudden increase at 120 hours.

GFS: Strengthening occurs after 24 hours, much sooner than in ECMWF.

UKMET: Straight westward track, with moderate OW the entire time.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P42L.html

[cycloneye]

Hey look what TAFB did at 18z surface analysis. It introduce this pouch as a Tropical Wave well inside Africa. It will be interesting to follow this wave down the road to see if is what GFS has developing in WestCentral Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

Hey look what TAFB did at 18z surface analysis. It introduce this pouch as a Tropical Wave well inside Africa. It will be interesting to follow this wave down the road to see if is what GFS has developing in WestCentral Caribbean.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/14iftx3.jpg

Right Cycloneye, very interresting . Wait and see.

[Gustywind]

By the way Cycloneye, what are the expected conditions ahead of this tropical wave?

[cycloneye]

By the way Cycloneye, what are the expected conditions ahead of this tropical wave?

Not ideal conditions between Africa and Lesser Antilles but things may turn better in Western Caribbean if it gets a favorable MJO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lilybeth]

May I ask where in the first image the pouch is located? Is it the blob on the bottom left/west edge of Africa? (Over Liberia-ish)

[cycloneye]

May I ask where in the first image the pouch is located? Is it the blob on the bottom left/west edge of Africa? (Over Liberia-ish)

That image was saved for the first post but here is the most recent image that shows the pouch still inside Africa.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 9/27/13 at 00:00 UTC image that is saved.

[lilybeth]

May I ask where in the first image the pouch is located? Is it the blob on the bottom left/west edge of Africa? (Over Liberia-ish)

That image was saved for the first post but here is the most recent image that shows the pouch still inside Africa.

Thank you!

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N17W 14N18W 12N21W 12N22W
11N23W. SCATTERED STRONG IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
18W AND 20W.

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 16N20W TO
8N22W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 14N19W ACROSS THE WAVE TO 13N25W.

[cycloneye]

Interesting to say the least. Saved image.

[OURAGAN]

Big fish

[Hurricaneman]

Big fish

I wouldn't say that quite yet as the models have been trending closer to the lesser antilles and could still impact there even as a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve H.]

Not sure if this is the same wave, but I like the area of convection that seems to be trying to organize east of the Leeward Islands. Believe this could be the next AOI.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Not sure if this is the same wave, but I like the area of convection that seems to be trying to organize east of the Leeward Islands. Believe this could be the next AOI.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hi Steve. I moved your post from the other wave thread as is this one that you are referring to.

[Steve H.]

Okay, thanks Luis! Let's see what this one does.

[colbroe]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 52W/53W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W.

[colbroe]

This wave looking a lot better as time goes by.

[Gustywind]

This wave looking a lot better as time goes by.

That's right, convective activity is also increasing as sat appearence. Looks like a possible rainmarker for much of the EC islands especially the Leewards if this trends continues. But, let's wait and see as 2013 is so special...