Central Atlantic Disturbance (Is Invest 90L)

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS...
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

[hurricanes1234]

A December storm?

[supercane4867]

Warm core system on 00z GFS

[hurricanes1234]

How favourable are the conditions here? Are they as favourable as they were for Melissa?

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%/30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
AZORES. THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...
BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

This area is Invest 90L, Go to the INVEST 90L Discussion Thread.