Global model runs discussion

[WPBWeather]

Na...Sooner or later sal will rap around anything that gets going. Bertha replay

Watch this loop nothing will get going in these conditions. Maybe in a few weeks something will change but it might be to late for cv season time to look close to home before you know it. Wasn't expecting an active cv season anyway or season for that matter.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

SAL is a lagging and temporary indicator, not a leading indicator of what may come. It can disappear within hours. SAL has been with us for 100s of years. It was here in 2004 and 2005 too. I was here and saw it then.

[SFLcane]

Plus don't compare 04/05 those are extreme anomalies not to be seen again. Not just sinking airmass but instability issues which has been impacting this basin for a while now. There are just many factors this yr in favor of slow season. Lets hope for interesting times ahead.

edit..GFS all alone developing cv wave which was dropped in recent 18z run. No support from European or Ukmet as of yet.

[WPBWeather]

Plus don't compare 04/05 those are extreme anomalies not to be seen again. Not just sinking airmass but instability issues which has been impacting this basin for a while now. There are just many factors this yr in favor of slow season. Lets hope for interesting times ahead.

Never to be seen again?? No one saw them the first time.

[SFLcane]

Plus don't compare 04/05 those are extreme anomalies not to be seen again. Not just sinking airmass but instability issues which has been impacting this basin for a while now. There are just many factors this yr in favor of slow season. Lets hope for interesting times ahead.

Never to be seen again?? No one saw them the first time.

I was in 150+mph winds in 92 in fl city a major hurricane is something i wish nobody would experience. That's the issue the way i see it everyone thinks every yr will be like 04 or 05. In any given season the odds of you experience hurricane force winds are remote. Unless of course you live in sfl which i might add many here have NO IDEA what its like going through a major.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS is back with a hurricane in Atlantic. But the other models don't have it so far.

[cycloneye]

Note=This thread is only to post model runs and have some discussions about them. Is not about posting water vapor loops or MJO graphics etc. There is a thread that is now open for the members to make comments or to post sat images,MJO graphics etc that is now at Talking Tropics forum. Go to the Thoughts about the rest of the 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

[Alyono]

NO TCs through 16 days on the 12Z GFS

[perk]

Do you really believe that.

[Alyono]

I'm not seeing any favorable conditions right now, so yes, a season like 1994 would not surprise me at all. It does seem to be a good analog year for this year

[gatorcane]

Look at how strong the ridging is over Eastern Canada as projected by the 12Z GFS Ensembles, 264 hour saved image below:

[Alyono]

GFS indicating that this will be just the second year ever with no August Atlantic cyclones

[blp]

FWIW the UKMET is leaning toward developing the first wave. I am looking at the UKMET to see how it performs since the upgrade. Right now it is alone with how far west it is.

[tolakram]

Source for those: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[HurrMark]

GFS indicating that this will be just the second year ever with no August Atlantic cyclones

Wouldn't Bertha count? It was designated 0300Z on the 1st...unless you think they will change the formation date post-season.

[Alyono]

GFS indicating that this will be just the second year ever with no August Atlantic cyclones

Wouldn't Bertha count? It was designated 0300Z on the 1st...unless you think they will change the formation date post-season.

formation never occurs at 3Z. Earliest could be 0Z

However, I'm sure best track will call this a TD or a TS at least a day before

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS indicating that this will be just the second year ever with no August Atlantic cyclones

Wouldn't Bertha count? It was designated 0300Z on the 1st...unless you think they will change the formation date post-season.

formation never occurs at 3Z. Earliest could be 0Z

However, I'm sure best track will call this a TD or a TS at least a day before

You are correct. The first Public Advisory on bertha was issued at 11pm AST on July 31st classifying it as a tropical storm and also making it a July storm. You could also be right on no named storms in August this year. How strange that would be...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Yellow Evan]

Wouldn't Bertha count? It was designated 0300Z on the 1st...unless you think they will change the formation date post-season.

formation never occurs at 3Z. Earliest could be 0Z

However, I'm sure best track will call this a TD or a TS at least a day before

You are correct. The first Public Advisory on bertha was issued at 11pm AST on July 31st classifying it as a tropical storm and also making it a July storm. You could also be right on no named storms in August this year. How strange that would be...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

UTC time is official and what goes in the best track; local time is not.

[blp]

12z GFS finally showing something resonable where by one of the two pouches takes over and the system actually moves instead of just stalling for two weeks. It has it North of the islands 288hrs.

[ninel conde]

not terribly impressive for the peak of the season. 1011 mb is just back ground pressure.

[WPBWeather]

not terribly impressive for the peak of the season. 1011 mb is just back ground pressure.

Wrong again.