Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Avila
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Avila
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
12z UKMET continues to develop this.
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 39.2W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2014 12.2N 39.2W WEAK
00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2014 14.8N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2014 15.3N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 60.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2014 16.6N 63.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 39.2W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2014 12.2N 39.2W WEAK
00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2014 14.8N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2014 15.3N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 60.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2014 16.6N 63.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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- TheProfessor
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- gatorcane
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Riptide wrote:Alyono wrote:CMC develops this WAY too soon. Not even close to reality
As for a US threat, won't we need a Bermuda HIGH? The operational models are all showing a Bermuda LOW
50/50 chance, could go either way. I don't expect the 500mb pattern to hold this far out and clearly the ensembles are seeing something the operational is not picking up on.
It seems if the system were to develop as fast and as the ECMWF and GEM are showing, the system would recurve east of the Leewards and well east of the United States:
Even the GFS operational is showing this large trough so there is global model support for this trough developing. Below is a saved image of the GFS operational 500MB prediction for next weekend:
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- weathernerdguy
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
SFLcane wrote::crazyeyes:
12z GFS esembles http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014081712/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atltropics.html
I dont get it, when i had watched it, i saw multiple "yellow balls" except the one that take katrina's path, which was a red one.
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- Fego
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
Would you be so kind to post the frame where the system is in the Caribbean?
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- weathernerdguy
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Re:
TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: well I don't know a lot about Tropical forecast maps yet, but that track looks a lot like Katrina's track.If that happened it would almost be exactly identical.
looks like the same date as well for landfall.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
UKMET has similar track to the GFS ensembles.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET continues to develop this.
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 39.2W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2014 12.2N 39.2W WEAK
00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2014 14.8N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2014 15.3N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 60.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2014 16.6N 63.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
Here is the graphic - UKMET is actually strengthening this in the Eastern Caribbean:
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- TheStormExpert
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Re:
Alyono wrote:This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia
The UK is now as entertaining and pointless as the Canadian.
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- Blown Away
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Re:
Alyono wrote:This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia
Why is it so unrealistic? The UK barely develops it and the track idea isn't that unreasonable?
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- Riptide
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
Riptide wrote:There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.
Good luck with that. Lol
Conditions are now just aggravatingly horrible, with no hope in sight!
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- Riptide
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles
TheStormExpert wrote:Riptide wrote:There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.
Good luck with that. Lol
Conditions are now just aggravatingly horrible, with no hope in sight!
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Re: Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:The UK is now as entertaining and pointless as the Canadian.
Care to share an explanation for grouping it with the CMC. The Ukmet has never come even close to being like the CMC. It has always been the among most conservative unlike the CMC. Also, look up the stats, it is one of the more reliable models.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Re:
blp wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:The UK is now as entertaining and pointless as the Canadian.
Care to share an explanation for grouping it with the CMC. The Ukmet has never come even close to being like the CMC. It has always been the among most conservative unlike the CMC. Also, look up the stats, it is one of the more reliable models.
It was just recently upgraded and it and the CMC alone are the only models right now that develop this.
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