Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#121 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 17, 2014 12:38 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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#122 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 17, 2014 12:44 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#123 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:20 pm

12z UKMET continues to develop this.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 39.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.08.2014 12.2N 39.2W WEAK

00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 14.8N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 15.3N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 60.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.6N 63.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#124 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:21 pm

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#125 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:30 pm

:uarrow: well I don't know a lot about Tropical forecast maps yet, but that track looks a lot like Katrina's track.If that happened it would almost be exactly identical. :eek:
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#126 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:30 pm

Riptide wrote:
Alyono wrote:CMC develops this WAY too soon. Not even close to reality

As for a US threat, won't we need a Bermuda HIGH? The operational models are all showing a Bermuda LOW

50/50 chance, could go either way. I don't expect the 500mb pattern to hold this far out and clearly the ensembles are seeing something the operational is not picking up on.

It seems if the system were to develop as fast and as the ECMWF and GEM are showing, the system would recurve east of the Leewards and well east of the United States:

Even the GFS operational is showing this large trough so there is global model support for this trough developing. Below is a saved image of the GFS operational 500MB prediction for next weekend:

Image

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#127 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:59 pm

12Z Euro just out - continues to be less enthusiastic about this pouch. It still shows something, maybe a depression and it tracks further south as a result...near the Leewards and over the Greater Antilles.

Here is how the run ends at 240 hours with the pouch over Hispaniola:
Image
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#128 Postby weathernerdguy » Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:11 pm


I dont get it, when i had watched it, i saw multiple "yellow balls" except the one that take katrina's path, which was a red one.
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#129 Postby Fego » Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:13 pm

:uarrow: Would you be so kind to post the frame where the system is in the Caribbean? :wink:
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Re:

#130 Postby weathernerdguy » Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:15 pm

TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: well I don't know a lot about Tropical forecast maps yet, but that track looks a lot like Katrina's track.If that happened it would almost be exactly identical. :eek:

looks like the same date as well for landfall. :(
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#131 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:19 pm

UKMET has similar track to the GFS ensembles.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#132 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET continues to develop this.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 39.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.08.2014 12.2N 39.2W WEAK

00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 14.8N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 15.3N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 60.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.6N 63.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


Here is the graphic - UKMET is actually strengthening this in the Eastern Caribbean:
Image
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#133 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:32 pm

This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia
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Re:

#134 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:37 pm

Alyono wrote:This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia

The UK is now as entertaining and pointless as the Canadian. :lol:
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Re:

#135 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:38 pm

Alyono wrote:This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia

Why is it so unrealistic? The UK barely develops it and the track idea isn't that unreasonable?
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#136 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:40 pm

There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#137 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:45 pm

Riptide wrote:There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.

Good luck with that. Lol

Conditions are now just aggravatingly horrible, with no hope in sight!
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Re: Tropical Wave midway between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles

#138 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:47 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Riptide wrote:There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.

Good luck with that. Lol

Conditions are now just aggravatingly horrible, with no hope in sight!

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Re: Re:

#139 Postby blp » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:50 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
The UK is now as entertaining and pointless as the Canadian. :lol:


Care to share an explanation for grouping it with the CMC. The Ukmet has never come even close to being like the CMC. It has always been the among most conservative unlike the CMC. Also, look up the stats, it is one of the more reliable models.
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Re: Re:

#140 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:52 pm

blp wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
The UK is now as entertaining and pointless as the Canadian. :lol:


Care to share an explanation for grouping it with the CMC. The Ukmet has never come even close to being like the CMC. It has always been the among most conservative unlike the CMC. Also, look up the stats, it is one of the more reliable models.

It was just recently upgraded and it and the CMC alone are the only models right now that develop this.
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