Wave behind 91L (Is Invest 93L)

[Hurricaneman]

It seems to have good model support with the Euro, CMC, and now the GFS forms this away from Africa so this may have to be watched as it seems to form from the ITCZ at a low lattitude like Bertha did so those in the islands it would be more than a week away so while its got model support it may still go poof into the night so lets see what it looks like tomorrow or Wednesday before I make any future forecast on this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

It seems to have good model support with the Euro, CMC, and now the GFS forms this away from Africa so this may have to be watched as it seems to form from the ITCZ at a low lattitude like Bertha did so those in the islands it would be more than a week away so while its got model support it may still go poof into the night so lets see what it looks like tomorrow or Wednesday before I make any future forecast on this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

right, excellent analysis, so ...let's wait and see before the ultimate and determinant poof test.

[gatorcane]

The GEM and GFS are showing this wave sneaking under all the troughing and making it quite a bit west in the long-range. Check out that GFS cane

GEM is a lot faster

12Z GEM, 240 hours:


12 GFS 384 hours:

[gatorcane]

GFS continues to show some gradual development of this system as it heads west over the MDR.

At 300 hours in the long-range it starts to recurve:

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS shows this getting pretty close to the Southeastern US and does still have model support but 10+ day forecasts usually have very high error rates so its a wait and see to even see if its going to develop never mind where it will go

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

This system is looking fairly impressive as it leaves the African coastline, may need to be watched if it can keep its distance from 91L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[YoshiMike]

well what would happen if it does get too close to 91l?

[Gustywind]

Here it comes but should it survives against the persistent hostiles conditions? Let's wait and see as usual.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS COME OUT OF AFRICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 14N20W TO 05N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
13N BETWEEN 21W-24W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.

[BigA]

Conditions actually look decent for it, though model support (or lack thereof) is bearish, in contrast with a couple days ago.

Shear, at least in the eastern Atlantic, is fairly light, there is no major SAL outbreak, and the wave has a substantial envelope of high precipitable water, as noted in the discussion above. Right now it is firing convection fairly decently, and there is a fair amount of turning associated with it, as shown by the reasonably robust vorticity on the CIMMS Wisconsin map.

The enhancive phase of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave moving westward could also help it (and all systems in the Atlantic), once it gets there.

Not an immediate threat to develop, but worth watching as it moves westward.

[OURAGAN]

A low will be added on this wave the next 48 hours

[Gustywind]

Conditions actually look decent for it, though model support (or lack thereof) is bearish, in contrast with a couple days ago.

Shear, at least in the eastern Atlantic, is fairly light, there is no major SAL outbreak, and the wave has a substantial envelope of high precipitable water, as noted in the discussion above. Right now it is firing convection fairly decently, and there is a fair amount of turning associated with it, as shown by the reasonably robust vorticity on the CIMMS Wisconsin map.

The enhancive phase of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave moving westward could also help it (and all systems in the Atlantic), once it gets there.

Not an immediate threat to develop, but worth watching as it moves westward.

Nice analysis but let's see in the fact what could really happens from this one.

[gatorcane]

There is a floater on it. Looking decent and here is the saved image.

[SFLcane]

Decent looking wave fairly low latitude with no SAL issues for now. Suspect this will soon get tagged.

[Fego]

There you have it

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple
of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph. After that time, conditions over the central tropical Atlantic
are expected to be unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND
25W.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located south of
the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of organization. This
system, however, is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 mph toward an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W
AND 32W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY
BE PART OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT MOSTLY IS RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

[Hurricaneman]

is 93L can lock this

[tolakram]

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