Possible low in the BoC? (Is Invest 94L)

[TexWx]

Very interesting, just saw this today.
Thoughts about a quick spin up?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom/ge_gmex_loop.html

[Portastorm]

Our friend srainhoutx believes that surface observations and buoy data suggests a surface low may be forming down there. Yes, it definitely raises an eyebrow when you look at the satellite.

[CaneCurious]

That looks more robust then 92L

[TexWx]

Sorry for the mobile link, I was posting from my phone.

[tropicwatch]

There definitely vorticity in the area.

[galvestontx]

wow that came out of nowhere.... impressive. The front coming through Texas will pull that north wont it?

[Sanibel]

It appears to be shear induced from the ULL over Mexico but there's also something sneaking in at the low level off of Yucatan.

[tropicwatch]

Wow pressures are pretty low along the Mexican coast west of the large area of convection.

SACV4 O 1300 19.17 -96.09 182 255 290 1.9 2.9 - - - - 29.83 +0.01 76.8 - 75.0 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
VERV4 O 1300 19.20 -96.11 182 255 250 1.0 1.0 - - - - 29.82 +0.01 - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
LMBV4 O 1300 19.59 -96.38 192 263 310 2.9 2.9 - - - - 29.83 +0.03 75.0 - 74.8 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
3 observations reported for 1300 GMT

[srainhoutx]

There is some shear, but not all that strong in the BoC this morning. A tropical wave axis is near the NE Mexico/S Texas Coast at this time. That said a robust convectively coupled Kelvin wave is advancing E toward the Western Atlantic Basin this morning. I suspect we will see an unsettled pattern during the 7 to 10 days across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf with lowering pressures and that stalled boundary lingering near the NW/Central Gulf Coast.

[TexWx]

[Steve]

This was progged a couple of days ago by the NAM and had been being shown by GFS for a while. It was to be the initial surge out of the Caribbean followed by a second surge out of the Western Atlantic which is 92L. Model support was in the form of a tropical surge though there was a little bit of a spin noticable at landfall. There have been some discussions of piling energy down there over the last week or so. Personally, I think some of that energy will juice the next EPAC system, but there is always a shot at some minimal action for the S TX or N MX Coasts.

[Portastorm]

wow that came out of nowhere.... impressive. The front coming through Texas will pull that north wont it?

Probably not as the frontal boundary will not be blowing into the WGOM. It's going to wash out over South Texas.

[tropicwatch]

Anyone think the NHC will mention this area in the 2pm TWO?

[floridasun78]

here loop of area http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[tropicwatch]

Try this http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19.5&lon=-93.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[tropicwatch]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF
THE LOW TO NEAR 25N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE W GULF BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N99W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 32N89W. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND IS ALSO
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE NW GULF TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TX/LA COASTLINES AND OFFSHORE
WATERS.

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W IS
MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
AND CENTRAL FL...THE FL STRAITS...AND THE SE GULF FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 79W-84W.

OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER S FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
BASIN.

[Hammy]

ASCAT this morning showed a decent rotation, though somewhat elongated, and the models develop a tropical depression right as it moves inland, I'm surprised there hasn't been any mention in the outlook yet.

[Stormcenter]

Ok so why is there not an invest?

[cycloneye]

Shower activity has increased this afternoon in association with a
tropical wave over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Surface
observations indicate that pressures are low in this area, and some
additional development could occur before the system moves into
eastern Mexico later tonight or on Saturday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
spread over portions of eastern Mexico tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 94L.

viewforum.php?f=59