Expert forecasts for 2015 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

As always they do,the first salvos are released by Klotzbach/Gray team and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).Let's see how the experts see the 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season unfold as they do the forecasts down the road. All the different forecasts will be posted at the first post of thread for all to locate them in a easy way.

CSU

December Forecast= --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2014.pdf --- Activity depends on the strength of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation and ENSO

April forecast --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... pr2015.pdf --- Below average ---- 7/3/1

June forecast --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2015.pdf --- Below average ---- *8/3/1

July forecast --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ul2015.pdf --- Below average ---- *8/3/1

August forecast --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ug2015.pdf --- Below average ---- *8/2/1

Verification of 2015 forecast --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ov2015.pdf


NOAA

May forecast --- http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... -year.html --- Below average

TSR

August forecast --- http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... eason.html --- Below average

December forecast --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2015.pdf --- Below Average

April forecast --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2015.pdf --- Average --- 11/5/2

May forecast --- http://tropicalstormrisk.com/ -- Below average --- 10/4/1

August forecast --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ug2015.pdf --- Below average --- 11/4/1

Larry Cosgrove

March forecast --- https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en# ... LWSWj0OV78 --- Above average

WxBell (Joe Bastardi)

March 15 forecast --- http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/hurricane-season-prelim --- 7-9/3-5/1-2 ACE 65-80% of normal

August 4 forecast --- http://i.imgur.com/jEFNehM.jpg --- 7-9/3-5/1-2


NC State University forecast

April forecast --- https://news.ncsu.edu/2015/04/hurricane-2015/ --- Below average

WSI April forecast --- http://blog.wsi.com/blog/aviation/wsi-l ... d-in-2015/ --- Below average

[CrazyC83]

Very low confidence at this point, that is for sure...

[Hurricaneman]

The ENSO is going to be a really important factor which is why the CSU forecast is up in the air as a more neutral or Madoki El Nino would lend to more development but a traditional El Nino would lead to low activity so lets see where the ENSO goes by their April forecast as we will have a better understanding where the ENSO will be for the hurricane season by then

[cycloneye]

Apart from ENSO,the other big factor that the folks of CSU mention is the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation that relates in part for the dry air that has dominated the MDR in the past 2 seasons.Let's see how that circulation behaves in the next few months.

[gigabite]

CSU managed the 2014 number well.

The call of 1995 as the start of the Active Era & the continuation of it is a puzzle to me.
1995 was a anomalous high count bracketed by two low count years.

I think "Active Era" is over except for a pop in 2016.

so says the guy in the 90 percentile of the hurricane poll

[ninel conde]

CSU managed the 2014 number well.

The call of 1995 as the start of the Active Era & the continuation of it is a puzzle to me.
1995 was a anomalous high count bracketed by two low count years.

I think "Active Era" is over except for a pop in 2016.

so says the guy in the 90 percentile of the hurricane poll

if this season is also dead then i think its safe to say the active period is over.

[wxman57]

I think that the current active cycle has another good 10-20 years before it ends. It's only been 20 years. The last active cycle lasted 44 years (1926-1969). Slow seasons are not uncommon during active cycles, sometimes 3-4 in a row. Most slow periods are broken by a very active season. No sign of that for 2015, though. Latest ECMWF extended outlook is for above-normal pressures in the MDR, along with below-normal rainfall. Dry air continues. SSTs may be warmer this year, though. Possibly a weak El Nino, but no La Nina is likely. I'd say "average" to a little below average ACE-wise for 2015. Of course, that doesn't mean everyone is "safe" next season. Many below-average seasons feature a single significant hurricane strike.

[wxman57]

I was taking a look at current/recent past conditions across the Tropical Atlantic and the ECMWF outlook for May-June-July yesterday. The pattern I see is still one of hostile conditions across the Tropics. Dry air still dominates the MDR in the mid-levels. The European model is forecasting well above-normal pressures and dry weather across the Tropics again this year, at least through July.

I think we're looking at another season with a lower than normal ACE, and one with fewer MDR storms once again then normal. That doesn't mean there will be no hurricane threat across the Caribbean or along the U.S. Coast. It only takes one...

[ninel conde]

I was taking a look at current/recent past conditions across the Tropical Atlantic and the ECMWF outlook for May-June-July yesterday. The pattern I see is still one of hostile conditions across the Tropics. Dry air still dominates the MDR in the mid-levels. The European model is forecasting well above-normal pressures and dry weather across the Tropics again this year, at least through July.

I think we're looking at another season with a lower than normal ACE, and one with fewer MDR storms once again then normal. That doesn't mean there will be no hurricane threat across the Caribbean or along the U.S. Coast. It only takes one...

The pattern looks exactly the same as it has the last decade since 2005. Is there really such a thing as a bermuda high? ridge and drough over california unabated, ridge forming over texas which means for the 9th year in a row we will have a nw flow blasting through the western atlantic all summer. except for an oddity in a dead pattern like last season then the entire coast from brownsville to maine has a much lower than normal chance for a hurricane hit.

[ninel conde]

LC going 15/9/3 though i dont know if i can post his disco here.

[cycloneye]

LC going 15/9/3 though i dont know if i can post his disco here.

Post link and I will put it at first post list.

[crownweather]

LC going 15/9/3 though i dont know if i can post his disco here.

Post link and I will put it at first post list.

This is the link he posted on his Facebook page - https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en# ... heramerica .

[cycloneye]

LC going 15/9/3 though i dont know if i can post his disco here.

Post link and I will put it at first post list.

This is the link he posted on his Facebook page - https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en# ... heramerica .

Thanks Rob,Is now at first post list.

[cycloneye]

CPC Declares El Nino.I am sure this will be a big topic of conversation among the experts to forecast the upcoming 2015 season.

[cycloneye]

A reminder to the members about getting ready to participate in the annual S2K numbers poll that will begin on April 1rst and will be open for the members to post their numbers until May 31rst at midnight EDT.

[ninel conde]

CPC Declares El Nino.I am sure this will be a big topic of conversation among the experts to forecast the upcoming 2015 season.

maybe we need conditions to get as bad as possible this season so something might finally happen next year.

[NDG]

If current warm ENSO centered in the middle of the Pacific continue through the Hurricane season chances of at least near a average Hurricane season during the peak of the season are very high, IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: If current warm ENSO centered in the middle of the Pacific continue through the Hurricane season chances of at least near a average Hurricane season during the peak of the season are very high, IMO.

Highly disagreed. Look at how terrible the -AMO is. And many Modoki's still bring increased shear to the basin, see 1991, 1992, and 2002;.

[Blown Away]

Not sure if GWO qualifies as an expert, but they predict an active 2015 season. Also, I didn't pay to get their 3 US hot spot prediction.
Link: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2015/01/prweb12423279.htm

2015 Hurricane Zone Predictions: Stronger Season with Three U.S. Hot Spots
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says
the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years,
and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years. CEO David Dilley says, “GWO
has issued the most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the
only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño
would not form.”

Ocala, Florida (PRWEB) January 07, 2015 -- Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane
cycle prediction company, says, "The 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and
dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years".

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued "the most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running,
and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño
would not form.”

GWO issues predictions based on its “patent pending” Climate Pulse Technology developed by Mr. Dilley.
GWO currently has 11 United States prediction zones from New England to Texas, and the Philippine Islands
in the western Pacific. He also issues accurate predictions for El Niño events and other climate cycles.

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper
atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural “Climate Pulse
Enhancement Cycle” that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.

The Atlantic Basin experiences on the average 11 to 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
GWO predicts the 2015 hurricane season to be a little above average and more dangerous, with 14 named
storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In addition; GWO is predicting three Hurricane Hot Spots along
the United States coastline that are at high risk for hurricane activity this year, with at least 1 major hurricane
likely.

When GWO predicts a high probability for hurricane conditions within one of their prediction zones, it is redflagged
as a hurricane or tropical storm “Hot Spot”. GWO’s hot spot predictions for the United States have
been nearly 87 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by companies and other
organizations. GWO is the only organization that predicts hurricane conditions for specific zones, and for up to
4 years in advance. Detailed predictions for the 11 hurricane zones can be obtained by going to
(http://www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com).

GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño would
not form. GWO was also the only organization to predict the very weak 2013 hurricane season, “Hot Spot”
zone predictions of Hurricane Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). The prediction of Sandy, a highimpact
hybrid storm was made 3 years in advance, and Irene 2 years in advance.

What makes GWO a standout from other organizations is their commitment to research and development of
GWO’s “patent pending” Climate Pulse Technology (CPT) that incorporates natural mechanisms that control
the rhythm of weather and climate cycles. Research over the past 30 years has found that each of the Atlantic
and Gulf coastal zones have varying weather cycles, and within each cycle, there exists smaller weather cycles
which make each zone unique. Once all of the cycles are discovered, Dilley then uses the Climate Pulse
Technology to accurately assess the intensity of a future hurricane season, and the probability risk for hurricane
or tropical storm conditions within a prediction zone for that year.

GWO Webinars, detailed hurricane zone predictions, past hurricane season verification, graphics, and the
“free” climate change e-book “Earth’s Natural Climate Pulse”, authored by David Dilley can be acquired
through the GWO web site http://www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com.

In addition, an interactive electronic subscription to the GWO’s hurricane predictions can also be acquired
through GWO’s working partner, XtremeGIS http://www.xtremegis.com the risk management division of Wall
Street Network (WSN) http://www.wsn.net.

[cycloneye]

Not going to include at the expert list as I read that release there is no real explanation of why he forecasts an active season.Only this?

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural “Climate Pulse Enhancement Cycle” that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.