2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#81 Postby Macrocane » Sun May 14, 2017 2:41 pm

My final numbers:

12/5/3, ACE 100

I expect a +PDO and weak El Niño or warm neutral conditions in the Pacific. AMO remains in the active phase in the Atlantic. Analog years: 2002, 2006 and 2009.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#82 Postby KatDaddy » Sun May 14, 2017 2:46 pm

Its been awhile but here we go.

14-7-4: ACE 110
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#83 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 14, 2017 3:42 pm

Macrocane and KatDaddy are added.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#84 Postby J_J99 » Mon May 15, 2017 7:54 am

15/7/4
Final
130 ACE

El Nino even if develops will be very weak and only atmospherically take affect in the very late part of the season, and will not have a signficant effect as say 2009 or 2015 did. I am thinking more along the lines of a warm neutral, North Atlantic is heating up and the Greenland Cool Pool seems to be for the most part staying near normal temperatures. +AMO....

But with the Carribean... we need to watch out.... no storms have even TOUCHED the high OHC waters, Matthew only sucked in a little bit of it, because it never went into the Western Carribean....just like Matthew came in and made the absolute perfect track at the perfect time to become a monster.... any storm that comes during a PDO crash, below 20 knots of shear, right at the peak of the season and in the Western Carribean.... I would very much so look out for that.... any storm in the Carribean will need to be watched very very closely...

The MDR seems to be in a MUCH more healthy state than it was in 2016 when it was effectively shut down as evidenced by the already strong tropical waves emerging from Africa and the signficant warm up of SSTs....
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#85 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2017 8:51 am

J_J99 wrote:15/7/4
Final
130 ACE

El Nino even if develops will be very weak and only atmospherically take affect in the very late part of the season, and will not have a signficant effect as say 2009 or 2015 did. I am thinking more along the lines of a warm neutral, North Atlantic is heating up and the Greenland Cool Pool seems to be for the most part staying near normal temperatures. +AMO....

But with the Carribean... we need to watch out.... no storms have even TOUCHED the high OHC waters, Matthew only sucked in a little bit of it, because it never went into the Western Carribean....just like Matthew came in and made the absolute perfect track at the perfect time to become a monster.... any storm that comes during a PDO crash, below 20 knots of shear, right at the peak of the season and in the Western Carribean.... I would very much so look out for that.... any storm in the Carribean will need to be watched very very closely...

The MDR seems to be in a MUCH more healthy state than it was in 2016 when it was effectively shut down as evidenced by the already strong tropical waves emerging from Africa and the signficant warm up of SSTs....


You are #49 on the list.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#86 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon May 15, 2017 12:19 pm

Luis,

I am soooo torn between El Nino or no El Nino. I can't take it anymore.....I am going with a neutral season.

12/6/3 - Final


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#87 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2017 1:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Luis,

I am soooo torn between El Nino or no El Nino. I can't take it anymore.....I am going with a neutral season.

12/6/3 - Final


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


The poll reached the 50 participant mark with your numbers.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#88 Postby Steve » Tue May 16, 2017 10:41 am

This is a tough call, but with that cooling ring between the warm north and south possibly forecast, I'm going to bump up my final a bit. I still like 13/6/2 ACE 103, but I'm going to bump to 14/6/2 106 ACE for the Final Prediction.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 16, 2017 11:48 am

Steve wrote:This is a tough call, but with that cooling ring between the warm north and south possibly forecast, I'm going to bump up my final a bit. I still like 13/6/2 ACE 103, but I'm going to bump to 14/6/2 106 ACE for the Final Prediction.


Done.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#90 Postby Andrew92 » Tue May 16, 2017 11:43 pm

My prelims were 13/6/2 with an ACE of 90.

However, I am no longer convinced of an El Nino taking shape, and the Atlantic looks more favorable than I was ready for. I am now going with for my final numbers:

18/9/4
ACE: 165

I have to say up front that I am the most nervous about this hurricane season coming into it in quite a while. I hope what I am saying is hype, but I have a bad feeling about this year with what it's shaping up to look like.

-Andrew92
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#91 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 17, 2017 5:19 am

Andrew92 wrote:My prelims were 13/6/2 with an ACE of 90.

However, I am no longer convinced of an El Nino taking shape, and the Atlantic looks more favorable than I was ready for. I am now going with for my final numbers:

18/9/4
ACE: 165

I have to say up front that I am the most nervous about this hurricane season coming into it in quite a while. I hope what I am saying is hype, but I have a bad feeling about this year with what it's shaping up to look like.

-Andrew92


Done.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#92 Postby chaser1 » Fri May 19, 2017 5:02 pm

Luis, please adjust my numbers UP slightly to 18/11/4 - Final
(the only exception of my decreasing my estimate of major hurricanes from 5 to 4).

The primary signs that I am seeing lead me to believe that the heart of the season might well offer up lower than normal upper 200mb meridianal flow with a largely anticyclonic upper air pattern over the far W. Atlantic/S.E. CONUS region. This coupled with what I believe will be a greater abundance of healthy tropical waves making there way and gaining latitude in their approach to the Caribbean, warmer SST's throughout areas of the W. Caribbean, Gulf, and Atlantic Seaboard, NO impinging El Nino impact to the W. Atlantic and Gulf region, slightly lower than average Surface Pressures for a large portion of the W. Atlantic and part of the MDR..... I believe the result will be a fairly busy and healthy Atlantic Season with one common thread being a greater number of small to medium size systems thus posing a greater threat of faster developing and rapid deepening of several leading up to their respective point of eventual landfalls. I've never been one to get caught up with the overall topic of ACE; Primarily because I've never quite cared how many intense or long tracked tropical cyclones ended up disrupting the migration of trans-Atlantic marine or bird life. Now, if and when 6 or more land-falling hurricanes were to impact Central American, Mexico, Cuba, Texas, the N. Gulf Coast, S. Florida, and the N.E. CONUS, with most having a life span of less than 6 days - thats the type of nasty season that'll whoop very little ACE but an awful lot of ASS! Of which, NONE (or little) of the above might every come to fruition; It's just a broad concept of the type of season that I'm concerned about.

Overall, this may prove to be a year where a fair degree of debate occurs over last moment T.D.'s & T.S's being named or not, given some running out of room to develop AND/OR where a matter of 12 hours might result in 2 or more "less" destructive landfalls - or potentially "more" destructive landfalls to occur.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#93 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 19, 2017 6:01 pm

chaser1 wrote:Luis, please adjust my numbers UP slightly to 18/11/4 - Final
(the only exception of my decreasing my estimate of major hurricanes from 5 to 4).

The primary signs that I am seeing lead me to believe that the heart of the season might well offer up lower than normal upper 200mb meridianal flow with a largely anticyclonic upper air pattern over the far W. Atlantic/S.E. CONUS region. This coupled with what I believe will be a greater abundance of healthy tropical waves making there way and gaining latitude in their approach to the Caribbean, warmer SST's throughout areas of the W. Caribbean, Gulf, and Atlantic Seaboard, NO impinging El Nino impact to the W. Atlantic and Gulf region, slightly lower than average Surface Pressures for a large portion of the W. Atlantic and part of the MDR..... I believe the result will be a fairly busy and healthy Atlantic Season with one common thread being a greater number of small to medium size systems thus posing a greater threat of faster developing and rapid deepening of several leading up to their respective point of eventual landfalls. I've never been one to get caught up with the overall topic of ACE; Primarily because I've never quite cared how many intense or long tracked tropical cyclones ended up disrupting the migration of trans-Atlantic marine or bird life. Now, if and when 6 or more land-falling hurricanes were to impact Central American, Mexico, Cuba, Texas, the N. Gulf Coast, S. Florida, and the N.E. CONUS, with most having a life span of less than 6 days - thats the type of nasty season that'll whoop very little ACE but an awful lot of ASS! Of which, NONE (or little) of the above might every come to fruition; It's just a broad concept of the type of season that I'm concerned about.

Overall, this may prove to be a year where a fair degree of debate occurs over last moment T.D.'s & T.S's being named or not, given some running out of room to develop AND/OR where a matter of 12 hours might result in 2 or more "less" destructive landfalls - or potentially "more" destructive landfalls to occur.


Done.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#94 Postby crownweather » Sat May 20, 2017 11:35 am

Final Numbers:
12 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

ACE: 100.

I think that we could see more tropical cyclone activity in the deep tropics this year with 3 areas of particular concern –
1. the central and northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba;
2. The northeastern and eastern US Gulf Coast, including the Alabama coast, the Florida Panhandle, the west coast of Florida and the Florida Keys and
3. The US East Coast from eastern Florida to at least the New Jersey coast and possibly as far north as southern New England.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 20, 2017 11:52 am

crownweather wrote:Final Numbers:
12 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

ACE: 100.

I think that we could see more tropical cyclone activity in the deep tropics this year with 3 areas of particular concern –
1. the central and northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba;
2. The northeastern and eastern US Gulf Coast, including the Alabama coast, the Florida Panhandle, the west coast of Florida and the Florida Keys and
3. The US East Coast from eastern Florida to at least the New Jersey coast and possibly as far north as southern New England.


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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#96 Postby beoumont » Sun May 21, 2017 2:17 am

15/7/3
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#97 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun May 21, 2017 7:21 am

Without repeating a lot of info that has already been discussed I'm going with Steve's numbers of 14/6/2, ace 105. Was inclined to say 12 and 5 but seems there is always a minimal short lived storm or two and one hurricane to bump up the totals.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#98 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 21, 2017 8:41 am

The 100 participants mark is within reach as of this post 52 members are on the list.Let's keep the list getting longer until the May 31 midnight closing of poll.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#99 Postby 404UserNotFound » Sun May 21, 2017 6:05 pm

12/6/2, 90 ACE, probably final.
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Re: 2017 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (It ends on May 31 at midnight EDT)

#100 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon May 22, 2017 4:56 pm

My final numbers shall be 15/8/3
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