Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#21 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:24 am

again

DO NOT USE THE PARENT HWRF FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN SYNOPTICS

That is not a genesis model. Furthermore, you are very near the outer boundary. The lateral boundary conditions are simply the GFS fields. That development is merely the GFS forecast
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#22 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:25 am

Alyono wrote:again

DO NOT USE THE PARENT HWRF FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN SYNOPTICS

That is not a genesis model. Furthermore, you are very near the outer boundary. The lateral boundary conditions are simply the GFS fields. That development is merely the GFS forecast



I think you could make that a little bigger ?
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#23 Postby Weather150 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:48 am

This is my first time hearing this and I am a bit new, thanks for saying.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#24 Postby Weather150 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:55 am

An area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of
this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:48 am

8 AM: 20%-30%

An area of disturbed weather is located about 800 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:06 am

looks like the circulation is fairly well defined. It still needs to full break away from the ITCZ/Monsoon trough. might have have better better chance to develop than 95l since its slightly lagging behind the SAL surge and is in between the two large outbreaks.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#27 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:48 am

If it manages to survive the SAL and shear lurking to the North and west, beyond a week the steering looks rather uncertain. While there is a break in the ridge due to a long-wave trough over Eastern Canada on day 5, ridging appears to build back in over the Western Atlantic pretty quickly after that. The latest GFS ensemble guidance shows a cluster of ensembles, albeit weaker, getting blocked by this ridge while another cluster recurves this over the Central Atlantic.

Now chances are the environment will be too hostile once this leaves the ITCZ to amount to anything (it is July after all) but something to keep an eye on as we track this disturbance in case it manages to find some better conditions further down the road. It's pretty amazing we are even looking at anything out there this early in the hurricane season to begin with!
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#28 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:54 am

gatorcane wrote:If it manages to survive the SAL and shear lurking to the North and west, beyond a week the steering looks rather uncertain. While there is a break in the ridge due to a long-wave trough over Eastern Canada on day 5, ridging appears to build back in over the Western Atlantic pretty quickly after that. The latest GFS ensemble guidance shows a cluster of ensembles, albeit weaker, getting blocked by this ridge while another cluster recurves this over the Central Atlantic.

Now chances are the environment will be too hostile once this leaves the ITCZ to amount to anything but something to keep an eye on as we track this disturbance. It's pretty amazing we are even looking at anything out there this early in the hurricane season to begin with!


Yeah, though this has a better shot than 95l does. its between the large SAL plumes and if it can become well defined while its at such a low latidtude where there is plenty of moisture being pulled in from the south it has a pretty good shot. already appears to have decent circ taking shape though slightly sheared.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#29 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:30 am

Nice closed circulation caught by ASCAT this morning.

Image
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#30 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:39 am

:uarrow: If that's the case then this should very soon be an invest.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#31 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:52 am

Yep this one is on its way to becoming an invest. Looking at the floater loop of both 95L and this system, this system looks pretty good too relative to 95L though it is not an immediate threat to the Lesser Antilles so perhaps why we don't see an invest tag already:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#32 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yep this one is on its way to becoming an invest. Looking at the floater loop of both 95L and this system, this system looks pretty good too relative to 95L though it is not an immediate threat to the Lesser Antilles so perhaps why we don't see an invest tag already:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

one would think it would already have been an invest.. definately close circ. though now the convection needs to come back so it can fully break from the ITCZ lol
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:43 pm

An area of disturbed weather is located about 875 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#34 Postby otowntiger » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:
An area of disturbed weather is located about 875 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
With that already wnw to NW movement sounds to me like it will be a fish, that far out. Unless the ridge is strong and solid.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#35 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:25 pm

Convection building now with the circ. A few large burst around the center and it will begin to fully break away.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#36 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:30 pm

This will probably be 96L pretty soon
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#37 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:38 pm

This is going to struggle with the dry air and the shear ahead of it, there's a very high chance for it to develop but then struggle and die out once it reaches the Carribean.

Won't amount to much I presume but regardless formation of this wave and i95L forming in a month not favorable based on climo is a very good indicator of what's to come for this season. Pretty excited.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#38 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:11 pm

Kind of skeptical on the NW movement by the models.Seems to be caught in the low level westerly flow right now.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#39 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:16 pm

It has a NW movement because it's going to Fujiwara with 95L
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic

#40 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:16 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Kind of skeptical on the NW movement by the models.Seems to be caught in the low level westerly flow right now.



yeah remains to be seen. though if you notice the two smaller circualtions off the ene they are all imbedded in the monsoon trough and will likely begin to rotate around each other as they merge/die off that type of setup can casue erratic motion and lead to jumps NW and then once its gets far enough nw feel some weakness and off it goes.
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