Tropical Wave behind 91L (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO

A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[terstorm1012]

is this the wave that caused the disaster in Sierra Leone?

[Fishing]

is this the wave that caused the disaster in Sierra Leone?

That wave is the one that isn't quite off of Africa yet I believe. Tropical contender number 3.

[gatorcane]

This one looks pretty impressive this morning looking at the big picture. Look where the GFS has it in a week heading W to WNW:

[TheStormExpert]

This one has a better shot at developing within the next 5 days in my opinion compared to 91L since that Invest is in the lead taking the brunt of things fending off for this guy.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the UKMET is developing this wave when it gets east of the Bahamas:

[gatorcane]

and for completeness the 00Z ECMWF has this wave in the Southern Bahamas in a week. I think this one becomes invest 92L and needs to be watched closely if it makes it north of the islands in tact where conditions could be much more favorable. There appears to be a pretty strong 500MB ridge that develops over the SE United States and Western Atlantic that may keep this from recurving out to sea. I am not saying this will become our next Andrew but the potential track and time of year are eerily similar.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 92L is up,go to main discussion thread here

92L Models Thread