Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands (is invest 96L)

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Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands (is invest 96L)

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:02 pm

New tropical wave introduced into the TWD near 10N 19W. This seems to be the wave that the Euro develops into a tropical storm in about 4-5 days near the Lesser Antilles. The 12z GFS also appeared to take it into the Caribbean as a weak low. This is definitely one to watch, it will need to be monitored as it could take a similar track to Irma (although it should be much weaker if it develops). Expecting a mention from NHC soon.
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Re: Tropical Wave southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

#2 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:17 pm

I'd give this a 50 percent chance of development over the next 7 days
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Re: Tropical Wave southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

#3 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:23 pm

Disturbance may be southwest of the Cape Verde Islands based upon the tpw rotation
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:26 pm

Yes,that is where it is.Fixed the title.
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#5 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:23 pm

18Z GFS going with Caribbean development:

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#6 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:17 pm

Is this what the Euro starts developing in 72hrs and tracks to just NE of PR in 10 days?
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:43 pm

8PM TWO 10/30%
A tropical wave located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next
several days while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:45 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#9 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:56 pm

N2FSU wrote:Is this what the Euro starts developing in 72hrs and tracks to just NE of PR in 10 days?


Has to be, appears the GFS is a bit faster, imagine that?
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#10 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:11 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#11 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:12 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#12 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:13 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#13 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:14 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#14 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:14 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#15 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:25 pm

looks like crap imo
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#16 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:23 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:looks like crap imo

Its still just a tropical wave, it isn't gonna look pretty.

Last few frames on satellite makes this look like its wrapping convection around it. Looks to be organizing pretty quickly.
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:04 pm

This will likely take several days to organize. Don't really think it has much of a chance to become Lee until it's west of 50W.
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:46 pm

For me it looks good.

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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#19 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:26 pm

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.0N 48.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2017 72 12.2N 50.2W 1007 33
1200UTC 17.09.2017 84 12.7N 53.4W 1003 39
0000UTC 18.09.2017 96 13.2N 55.3W 999 42
1200UTC 18.09.2017 108 13.5N 57.2W 994 48
0000UTC 19.09.2017 120 13.6N 58.6W 988 60
1200UTC 19.09.2017 132 14.1N 60.0W 981 68
0000UTC 20.09.2017 144 15.0N 61.8W 981 65

ukmet send a hurricane through the islands, south of where Irma hit though
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Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#20 Postby N2FSU » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:43 am

Up to 40%
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