2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1921 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:53 pm

otowntiger wrote:Back to nada for the next 16 days. 8-) :sun:


0z GFS at 360hrs for your entertainment

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1922 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:37 am

Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1923 Postby CourierPR » Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:55 am

Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...


Met. Joe Bastardi is calling for development in the Southwest Atlantic this week. I don't think the plus-sized lady is warming up yet.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1924 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:12 am

That's the weak disturbance the GFS is showing as not doing much by the weekend. Since that tweet yesterday morning JB has shifted to other topics - lets hope the outcome stays that way...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1925 Postby CourierPR » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:23 am

Frank2 wrote:That's the weak disturbance the GFS is showing as not doing much by the weekend. Since that tweet yesterday morning JB has shifted to other topics - lets hope the outcome stays that way...


Please check his Saturday Summary on weather bell.com. He did not shift to other topics. :froze:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1926 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:45 am

The long-range GFS continues to show lowering of pressure across the SW and West-Central Caribbean around Oct 20-23 with some members showing storm development as you get further out in time

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1927 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:58 am

The long-range GFS is developing the wave that just moved off Africa in the Southwest Caribbean in 12 days or so. It is a fairly vigorous wave with noticeable spin. Even the UKMET was trying to develop this wave between the Lesser Antilles ad Africa on the 12Z run yesterday indicating it is a vigorous wave for this time of year:

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1928 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:02 am

Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...

Maybe seasons do usually end in late October for the U.S., but over half of Atlantic hurricane seasons feature a named storm form in November. At least 1 in 10 seasons have featured some sort of December activity.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1929 Postby caneman » Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:11 am

Frank2 wrote:That's the weak disturbance the GFS is showing as not doing much by the weekend. Since that tweet yesterday morning JB has shifted to other topics - lets hope the outcome stays that way...


Frank while I always appreciate your optimistic pessimism in not wanting storms, your statement isn't likely going to be prove true. I see no pattern change now or in the near future. Further, you can always get a spin up on the tail end of front.
Last edited by caneman on Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1930 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:13 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...

Maybe seasons do usually end in late October for the U.S., but over half of Atlantic hurricane seasons feature a named storm form in November. At least 1 in 10 seasons have featured some sort of December activity.


I believe every month on the calendar has seen a TC somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1931 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:23 am

With this warm weather pattern still in place and not forecasted to change over the next couple of weeks I wouldn't doubt we will another system form in the Caribbean/Bahamas area. We need a strong cold front to sweep through the Caribbean to end this hurricane season, that's not happening yet.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1932 Postby otowntiger » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:47 pm

Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
You may be right. Sounds good to me.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1933 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:05 pm

The fact that nothing is on the immediate docket is certainly good news. The fact that it's currently 90 with a 77 degree dewpoint (yielding at heat index of 103) at KTPA is not good news. The fact that the normal first front (typically around 10/10 for central florida) is nowhere in sight is not good news. to add to that the CPC extended outlooks show above normal temps continuing to blanket the eastern US until further notice. the reality is until we get repeated incursions of cool, dry air we (especially the Florida peninsula in the CONUS) will remain fair game for late season issues.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1934 Postby MetroMike » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:03 pm

12Z CMC has an area of low pressure coming in from the Atlantic moving west near the Florida straits next Saturday and then stalling in the Central Gulf then going back East towards the Florida West Central coast presumably as a Hurricane in 10 days

Would be surprised to see the same thing on the next run.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1935 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:11 pm

MetroMike wrote:12Z CMC has an area of low pressure coming in from the Atlantic moving west near the Florida straits next Saturday and then stalling in the Central Gulf then going back East towards the Florida West Central coast presumably as a Hurricane in 10 days

Would be surprised to see the same thing on the next run.


Mike, thanks for the post. That 12Z CMC track would be similar to Kate of 1985 though it is the CMC.

This is something that may bear watching as it forms around Mon night/Tuesday north of the Lesser Antilles. We're already discussing that potential system here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119307
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1936 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:16 pm

psyclone wrote:The fact that nothing is on the immediate docket is certainly good news. The fact that it's currently 90 with a 77 degree dewpoint (yielding at heat index of 103) at KTPA is not good news. The fact that the normal first front (typically around 10/10 for central florida) is nowhere in sight is not good news. to add to that the CPC extended outlooks show above normal temps continuing to blanket the eastern US until further notice. the reality is until we get repeated incursions of cool, dry air we (especially the Florida peninsula in the CONUS) will remain fair game for late season issues.

80 dp at kfll, 107 hx...not good news
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1937 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:49 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
You may be right. Sounds good to me.


I truly hope you both are right, Frank2 and otowntiger. It has been a horrible year with so much destruction. But I'm honestly concerned about the next 2 weeks. Two ridges establish themselves over the NE US. The first brings a strong tropical wave into FL this upcoming week, and the second may allow for Caribbean development in 10 days. Add in the July and August level heat and humidity we are having daily, and La Nina, and I am concerned that Florida will need to pay close attention at least through November 10. After around then if we start to get fronts maybe FL can relax but I'm sure there will be other systems spinning out in the Atlantic.

I hope things go quiet but am concerned that may not happen. :eek: :cry:
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1938 Postby WeatherHoon » Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:27 pm

Models continue to push back SWC development to the end of the run, so that seems to be good news. Of course things can happen without model support, but not seeing much is definitely encouraging.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1939 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:48 pm

Given the activity of this season, even a quiet period for now doesnt mean its gonna stay which has been echoed. Wilma slammed the US at the end of Oct. if i were in the SE and South id definitely be on my toes until xmas lol
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1940 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:49 pm

WeatherHoon wrote:Models continue to push back SWC development to the end of the run, so that seems to be good news. Of course things can happen without model support, but not seeing much is definitely encouraging.


Yes the GFS has pushed the timeframe back a little but it is more of one run has it one run doesn’t which is what you would expect so far out. The timeframe to watch is around Oct 20th which is around where the GFS originally started showing something. In the 18Z it brings it back but notice we are at 288 hours now:

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