Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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terstorm1012
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#21 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:12 pm

While I think it's much too early to prognosticate on next year's season---I'd keep an eye on Mt. Agung on Bali.

IF Agung suffers a Pinatubo-style (or bigger) eruption, that could make next summer interesting around the world.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:59 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:While I think it's much too early to prognosticate on next year's season---I'd keep an eye on Mt. Agung on Bali.

IF Agung suffers a Pinatubo-style (or bigger) eruption, that could make next summer interesting around the world.


It didn't have a global effect, since 1992 was hyperactive in the Pacific, even though it was quiet in the Atlantic (but even a quiet season can be catastrophic - Andrew, anyone?).
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#23 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:31 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
terstorm1012 wrote:While I think it's much too early to prognosticate on next year's season---I'd keep an eye on Mt. Agung on Bali.

IF Agung suffers a Pinatubo-style (or bigger) eruption, that could make next summer interesting around the world.


It didn't have a global effect, since 1992 was hyperactive in the Pacific, even though it was quiet in the Atlantic (but even a quiet season can be catastrophic - Andrew, anyone?).


I meant more the weather effect---it did cool the earth by about a degree. also Cerro Hudson in Chile exploded at roughly the same time too in an equally large eruption----there are a few other big volcanoes rumbling in the tropics right now, along with a couple in Iceland. It is worth looking at.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#24 Postby gigabite » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:33 pm

New Moon Analog 2017 Review
The hurricane season analog for 2018 is 1999. My final guess is 16/8/5 final
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This year this analog based guess hit at 88%/80%/83%. The 9-year trend is about 91%/63%/47%.
The standard deviation in the difference between my guess and the end of season
numbers for the 9 years is 6 for tropical storms, and for the last 5 years it is 4.

The analog year is the New Moon sub point that is closest to the test year sub point.
The sub point for 2018 is very close to where it was for 2017. The assumption is that
hurricanes are an object intensified by atmospheric eddies following the lunar sub-point,
and that the New Moon Path for similar years is similar. There are no climate or weather
values in the assumption. As global atmospheric water vapor varies so does the number,
and intensity of storms.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#25 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:36 pm



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/938549157295304704


Note that the AMO index in November '17 has actually increased compared to the previous month, October—the first such occurrence on this chart, which goes back to January '14. This is the first time since at least 2013 that we have seen the AMO go up as we head into the early winter months. Since the NAO is going negative over the upcoming week, the tropical Atlantic should remain warm or even warm up further, as trade winds are likely to slacken. Waters have already warmed up over the past several days, according to NESDIS SST data. Interestingly, the last times the AMO was at +0.4 or greater were in August 2016 and from August–October 2014, which makes the recent increase even more notable.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:20 pm

If I were to make an early prediction right now, with all the data we have:

Named storms: 15 to 21
Hurricanes: 9 to 13
Major hurricanes: 4 to 8

ACE: 145 to 225
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#27 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:25 pm

Image
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

Let's see how well the tropical Atlantic will retain its warmth over the next week, as the NAO trends to the positive, meaning stronger trades and higher sea-level pressure. I would expect the +AMO value to drop a bit, owing to stronger westerlies near Greenland. Those conditions would tend to induce a cooling of SSTs over the tropical Atlantic basin, in conjunction with the recent fall in SSTs over the far North Atlantic. It is easy to conclude the +AMO is strong on the basis of a few weeks' suppressed (negative) NAO and warmer tropical-Atlantic SSTs (slackened trade winds). On the other hand, a +NAO in early winter is a good test of the subsurface conditions in the far North Atlantic and could prove just how resilient and stout the +AMO really is, if indeed it is still in place.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#28 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:21 pm

Phil Klotzbach just issued his preliminary outlook. Basically, a 60% chance of an above-normal season in 2018. I agree.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#29 Postby NotSparta » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:Phil Klotzbach just issued his preliminary outlook. Basically, a 60% chance of an above-normal season in 2018. I agree.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf


Imo, it's already becoming clear that next season has a good chance of being active, if there aren't major changes. The question is how much so
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:41 pm

I think there will be another "quality" type season in 2018 at this rate - nothing exceptional in terms of named storms, but the numbers of hurricanes and majors far above normal, which racks up ACE. While 17 named storms is definitely above normal, it is not exceptional (normal seems to be about 14 adjusted for reanalysis and modern technology).
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#31 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:46 pm

If I had to make an extremely early guess on the numbers and ACE for next season I'd go with 16/8/4 and an ACE of 150-175 units. The same final numbers I went with for the 2017 season too back in late-May. Of course there is PLENTY of room and time for major adjustments up or down. What really concerns me as stated before is another 2004/2005 high impact combo season shaping up with this season being just as bad if not worse in terms of land impacts when compared to 2017.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#32 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:03 am

Atlantic hurricane forecast 2018
December 16 2017

Looking at all the factors here are what could shape the hurricane season

Positives
A negative pdo has started to show up which could keep the Pacific from heating up in the MDR leading to a lower shear environment than even 2017 in the Caribbean and similar conditions as this year in the rest of the Atlantic

A La Niña seems to be happening right now with forecasts models showing -neutral to weak La Niña by summer which could lead to lower shear than 2017 which is a scary thought

The AMO seems to want to stay really positive which is another thing that’s scary as that would mean possibly conditions in the MDR similar to this year

All other factors we won’t know until spring or summer but based on what I’m seeing it could be quite ugly for landfalls and here are my numbers which could be adjusted up or down depending on how the factors come together

23/15/7 ace 270

As always I am making an educated guess and could be wrong
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#33 Postby chaser1 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Atlantic hurricane forecast 2018
December 16 2017

Looking at all the factors here are what could shape the hurricane season

Positives
A negative pdo has started to show up which could keep the Pacific from heating up in the MDR leading to a lower shear environment than even 2017 in the Caribbean and similar conditions as this year in the rest of the Atlantic

A La Niña seems to be happening right now with forecasts models showing -neutral to weak La Niña by summer which could lead to lower shear than 2017 which is a scary thought

The AMO seems to want to stay really positive which is another thing that’s scary as that would mean possibly conditions in the MDR similar to this year

All other factors we won’t know until spring or summer but based on what I’m seeing it could be quite ugly for landfalls and here are my numbers which could be adjusted up or down depending on how the factors come together

23/15/7 ace 270

As always I am making an educated guess and could be wrong


THOSE would be some pretty prolific numbers indeed :sick:
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#34 Postby Alyono » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:13 pm

lets tap the brakes a bit

no cue at all what ENSO will be next year. Anyone who says we do is selling beach front property in Arizona. Models have shown ZERO skill until about June

It is also going to be quite hard to have the tropical Atlantic more favorable than last year. Afterall, the tropical Atlantic may have been the most favorable ever in recorded history last year. 2 cat 5's striking the Leeward Islands in 15 days when the previous cat 5 may have been as far back as 1781?

Now, I could see the Gulf and western Caribbean more favorable. That would be a possibility, same with the subtropical western Atlantic. Those areas actually underperformed a bit last year, especially the western Caribbean
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#35 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:44 pm

Are you referring to San Calixto, which was in October 1780? If not, then I'm not sure which system you are referring to from 1781.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#36 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:30 am

Alyono wrote:lets tap the brakes a bit

no cue at all what ENSO will be next year. Anyone who says we do is selling beach front property in Arizona. Models have shown ZERO skill until about June

It is also going to be quite hard to have the tropical Atlantic more favorable than last year. Afterall, the tropical Atlantic may have been the most favorable ever in recorded history last year. 2 cat 5's striking the Leeward Islands in 15 days when the previous cat 5 may have been as far back as 1781?

Now, I could see the Gulf and western Caribbean more favorable. That would be a possibility, same with the subtropical western Atlantic. Those areas actually underperformed a bit last year, especially the western Caribbean

I agree it's not likely the MDR will perform to the level it did in 2017, particularly September (July and August were not even very favorable in the MDR). Two C5s in the MDR is rare, and possibly even unprecedented, especially after the lack of many MDR hurricanes from 2012-16. If El Niño does not form by next summer then I think we could see a more active Caribbean than 2017 (it was quite unusual to see no hurricanes in the Western Caribbean in a year like this). It is still very early so we are still a long way off from determining what sort of season we will have in 2018. I am not going to issue numbers at this extended range but I am going to take an educated guess on the probabilities of each activity level:

Above normal season 60%
Near normal season 20%
Below normal season 20%

I see some people are already speculating another hyperactive season in 2018. Even though long range indicators look quite favorable for next season, I still think it's too early for me to think that we will see a season as active as or more active than this year.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#37 Postby Alyono » Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:01 am

1900hurricane wrote:Are you referring to San Calixto, which was in October 1780? If not, then I'm not sure which system you are referring to from 1781.


yeah, 1780
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#38 Postby FireRat » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:36 am

I've been hearing around that next season could be a strong follow-up to 2017, similar to how the 2005 season did after the 2004 season. 1995-1996 and 1998-1999 are other good examples of this phenomenon, basically hurricanes tend to come in bunches and two back-to-back active seasons is a fairly common occurrence.

Based on this, it will be likelier than normal for 2018 to be very active on the heels of 2017. However, there is an outside chance that the active duo was 2016-2017 instead, and this would make the chances go down for 2018 a bit maybe to "normal". We'll see...
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#39 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:37 am

My numbers are based on current conditions plus model predictions but do think that I will probably adjust down on later forecasts, I don’t see any reason to go up and if indeed an El Niño pops it could be a significant reduction
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#40 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:33 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:My numbers are based on current conditions plus model predictions but do think that I will probably adjust down on later forecasts, I don’t see any reason to go up and if indeed an El Niño pops it could be a significant reduction

There's also a possibility that if El Niño develops we could see a season not far from average (like 1979 and 2002) or even above average if we somehow got a Modoki El Niño. Chances of a super El Niño like 1997-98 or 2015-16 seem very unlikely, though.
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