2017-18 SHEM Season

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#21 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:33 pm

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Bom mslp forecast maps use the EC data to my knowledge.

We will have to wait and see what the MT + mjo brings about.

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Broad low on the access global. Ukmet uni based model.

https://www.eldersweather.com.au/models ... sg&mc=mslp
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#22 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:51 am

GFS/CMC are showing some interest in the coral sea.

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EC is modelling a another TC for WA. Many changes in the runs over the few days
is likely.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#23 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:12 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:The S Indian Ocean has been pretty active lately.
The SPac remains quiet so far though, with not even a single named/tropical storm since the season started. Models are not so enthusiastic either.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=384
Shear in swio and seio has been less than the Spac

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=384

Spac in a nina is generally below norm with tc numbers. But there has been howlers
recorded in nina ie yasi.




IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 19 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Monday 22 January 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough located over the northern Top End coast is becoming more active during the next few days. A weak Tropical Low is expected to form tonight or tomorrow north of the Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to move slowly south or southwest towards the Kimberley during the next few days and may develop slightly before it moves out of the area early next week.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#24 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:13 am

History 100 years ago. We are so fortunate these days with the early warning systems building codes and weather models.


http://australiasevereweather.com/tropi ... 718_03.htm


https://www.willyweather.com.au/news/73 ... +city.html
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#25 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:06 pm

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Model support across the board now. A possible threat to islands in the coral sea.
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Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#26 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:26 am

We may see a subtropical system form in the South Atlantic next week. Next name is Iba. Considering how liberal Brazil is with naming I would not be surprised to see this become Iba next week.
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Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#27 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:53 am

The GFS is currently producing fascinating runs with "epic convectively-coupled barotropic breakdown" (as described by Levi Cowan) in a complex monsoon trough situation over northern Australia. It actually looks like the town of Weipa on Queensland's west coast is being hit by five or six tropical cyclones in just around three days during that run. I guess this won't happen although the ECMWF is also producing several spin-ups in that area...

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#28 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:33 am

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 31 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 3 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows currently in the region and none are expected to develop through today. The monsoon trough is currently located between Lockhart River and Cooktown, extending east into the Coral Sea. The strengthening monsoon flow in the northwest Coral Sea will increase the chance of tropical cyclone development from low on Thursday to moderate from Friday. The best chance of a tropical cyclone is along the monsoon trough well east of the Queensland coast.

Conditions for tropical cyclone development, or a tropical cyclone to persist, remain favourable into early next week, with the best chance along the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:Moderate
Saturday:Moderate


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All models now hinting of another formation in the coral sea.

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Unless shear relaxes it will likely be a repeat of the last weak storm.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#29 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:13 am

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 3 February 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 6 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends across the northern Coral Sea, and a series of weak and transient lows have been observed along its length in the previous few days.

Atmospheric conditions are becoming less favourable for tropical cyclone development, and the probability of a tropical cyclone developing during the next few days is now considered to be very low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very low

IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 3 February 2018
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 6 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the Northern Region. A trough is expected to develop over the Top End early next week and a weak low pressure system may form within the trough.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:Very Low.
Monday:Very Low.
Tuesday:Very Low.

Any low that does form is expected to move west over land and remain weak.Image



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http://www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/cyclone/bulletin
[Cyclone Activity Bulletin on the South-West Pacific Basin written on 03/02/2018 at 12:30 local time
Phenomena in progress
Anticipated cyclonic activity in the next 7 days
This Saturday and tomorrow Sunday, there is a moderate likelihood that a moderate tropical depression will form near Fiji (Zone 1) and then shift to the South. On the other hand, there is a moderate likelihood of another moderate tropical depression growing between Wallis and Samoa starting mid-week next (zone 2).

On New Caledonia: New Caledonia will not be impacted by any depressions from zones 1 and 2.


The next bulletin will be written on 04/02/2018 at 12:30
localImage



Image
ec ens
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Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:56 pm

Just as a head's up, JTWC is now at a slightly different website. It's thrown me off for the past couple of days, so hopefully by posting the link, I can help y'all from being as confused as I was.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#31 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:11 pm

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Keeping a eye on the models. GFS is getting interesting.
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Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#32 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:55 pm

Threads for the recently designated 97P and 98P are now up.

Image
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#33 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:19 pm

Next SEIO WA storm. EC is. spinning one up along the Kimberly coast , Looking a repeat of earlier storms last month in the that region.

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#34 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:01 pm

Models are hinting another possible spinup in aussie aor off the NW WA. Next week.

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#35 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:58 am

SWIO

EC/GFS modelling a tc on the runs. EC rakes the Madagascar eastern shoreline. GFS looks another threat to the reunion island group.

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#36 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:06 pm

looks likely on sat and real-time earth winds there is another disturbance spinning up in the SWIO. (British Indian territory) Has not been tagged so far.

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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


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https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 394,-4.642

8.32° S, 71.82° E


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Decent mjo coming off SA on the way for the Indian ocean.

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#37 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:42 am

Global models suggesting some more TC activity in the spac mid/late next week.

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#38 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:56 pm

EC is hinting on another cyclone east of Madagascar next weekend. There are two
current invests in the sio.This appears to be 99S
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#39 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:47 pm

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Passing rossby wave stirring up the ukmet.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017-18 SHEM Season

#40 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:03 pm

EC has a storm around the date line. The storm shown off QLD is current TS- IRIS.
Bom modelling spills the mjo into the spac.

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109

FXXT01 EGRR 251604



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND



SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.03.2018



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NAMELESS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7S 141.6E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 25.03.2018 16.7S 141.6E MODERATE

00UTC 26.03.2018 16.6S 141.6E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.03.2018 16.6S 142.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.03.2018 16.4S 142.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.03.2018 16.4S 141.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.03.2018 15.7S 139.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.03.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



TROPICAL STORM IRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2S 158.6E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 25.03.2018 15.2S 158.6E WEAK

00UTC 26.03.2018 17.0S 157.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.03.2018 18.3S 157.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.03.2018 19.4S 157.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.03.2018 20.8S 157.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.03.2018 21.1S 158.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.03.2018 20.5S 158.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.03.2018 19.7S 158.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.03.2018 18.9S 156.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.03.2018 17.5S 154.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.03.2018 16.8S 153.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.03.2018 16.4S 151.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.03.2018 16.1S 149.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 20.7S 174.9E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.03.2018 20.7S 174.9E WEAK

12UTC 30.03.2018 21.0S 176.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.03.2018 22.0S 178.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.03.2018 23.1S 179.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 251604
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