ENSO Updates

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ENSO:BOM UPDATE

#8921 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:28 am

Thanks. What does MANTUA stand for?

It's the waters in the region above Hawaii i believe. King likely knows more it's her region upper 20N.
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Re: ENSO: BoM 3/13/18 update: La Niña ends

#8922 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:27 am

StruThiO wrote:Okay, forgive me here because I am a noob with all this but I couldn't help but make a post after seeing the latest subsurface frame

Image

quite a change from last week, no?


It's a glitch that happens occasionally, where the data gets corrupted. Can't make anything of it until the CPC folks fix it. Because it would be pretty nuts if that sub-surface pool indeed deepened to +5C.
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Re: ENSO:BOM UPDATE

#8923 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:31 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Thanks. What does MANTUA stand for?

It's the waters in the region above Hawaii i believe. King likely knows more it's her region upper 20N.


I'm a he lol :D.

Mantua box is pretty much the area that's used to calculate the monthly PDO value. Developed by Nate Mantua, who discovered the PDO along with the folks at JISAO: S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis. That chart Digital-TC posts is very helpful, and is also found on stormvistawxmodels.com.

However I would caution in using the Mantua Box daily calculations. I'm not sure who calculates it and how, but it usually is very off from the JISAO official numbers from my past experience.
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Re: ENSO: BoM 3/13/18 update: La Niña ends

#8924 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:57 am

From this graphic from Dr. Ventrice, there's a solid chance we see the MJO get pushed into the MC/WPAC per the Euro by the end of the March. This could trigger a WWB across the equatorial central Pacific if the MJO goes into phases 6/7/8.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8925 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:38 pm

Ventrice tweeted about that last sub surface frame:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/974020717179211777





Happens every now and then.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8926 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:57 pm

It was a glitch.TAO shows the big warm pool complete and it updates daily.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8927 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:18 pm

https://imgur.com/a/4Ry5N
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kwave is passing through the Indonesian archipelago.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8928 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:00 pm

To close off March, the GFS continues to show a pretty substantial WWB event across 130E-160E due to the MJO entry into the WPAC:

Image

Something to keep an eye on as this is something we haven't seen in prior "failed El Nino" years.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8929 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:34 pm

:uarrow: That is a fairly potent WWB west of the dateline. It significantly weakens the trades around the dateline as well. It will reinvigorate the warm pool below the central Pacific. 4-5+C will show up. Sea Surface height anomalies are rising as well in this region.

Image

If there is to be an El Nino to form, I don't think we will see the traditional type or full blown basin one. Probably modoki at best.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8930 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:39 pm

If you take a look at the cross section below the surface. We're sitting about where 2009 was at this time

This Feb/it's a little more advanced now in March

Image

2009 Feb

Image

2015 was well ahead as it was already in an El Nino

Image

2017 last year wasn't much of a subsurface pool

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8931 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:21 pm

Thank you for the comparisons, Ntxw. 2009 was a late bloomer. Didn't really see +0.5C on the ONI until MJJ-JJA.

Also: PDO for February comes in @ +0.37.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8932 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:41 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8933 Postby NotSparta » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:44 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: That is a fairly potent WWB west of the dateline. It significantly weakens the trades around the dateline as well. It will reinvigorate the warm pool below the central Pacific. 4-5+C will show up. Sea Surface height anomalies are rising as well in this region.

Image

If there is to be an El Nino to form, I don't think we will see the traditional type or full blown basin one. Probably modoki at best.


Agreed, any WWBs have been stuck too far west it's seeming
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8934 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:11 pm

It's going to be tough to get a Modoki El Nino during the summer time. We're going to need Nino 1+2 to remain around or below -1.0C -- if we go by its authors definition of a true Modoki. And its has been more difficult than not to see these type of levels @ Nino 1+2C during the summer, especially with no present La Nina. Despite calls for a Modoki Nino since 2009, we haven't seen one muster since. And the 2009 El Nino is still a debated topic on whether that El Nino was a Modoki or not. Looked traditional for most of the 2009 hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8935 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:It's going to be tough to get a Modoki El Nino during the summer time. We're going to need Nino 1+2 to remain around or below -1.0C -- if we go by its authors definition of a true Modoki. And its has been more difficult than not to see these type of levels @ Nino 1+2C during the summer, especially with no present La Nina. Despite calls for a Modoki Nino since 2009, we haven't seen one muster since. And the 2009 El Nino is still a debated topic on whether that El Nino was a Modoki or not. Looked traditional for most of the 2009 hurricane season.


I tend to agree the modoki in the form that is used feverishly to push similarities with 2004 is way overblown. It's gotten to the point where it's strayed off its true purpose (Ashok et al). The idea of "modoki" is that tropical convection and forcing is strongest near the dateline. 2009 was an example of one of the strongest dateline forcing. Despite its frequent use to point out for the Atlantic its true purpose..is not, it's just a directional view of the walker circulation.

An El Nino does not have to be defined by traditional, modoki, full basin etc. Not only can it vary year by year, but also during the lifetime of a single event can go back and forth.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8936 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:14 pm

We'll probably be seeing a brief spike in the SOI as TC Marcus moves almost directly over Darwin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8937 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:20 am

I think that the upcoming westerly wind burst (WWB), combined with subsurface progression, should be enough to reconfigure the large-scale dynamics, which include ocean-atmosphere interaction, into an El Niño-friendly base state. That impending transition will be pivotal to the development of El Niño; thus far the atmosphere has been in La Niña mode. The previously posted charts show that the subsurface warmth is actually somewhat more entrenched, depth-wise, than in February 2009, and in absolute terms is actually warmer than the subsurface in February 2015, albeit not as far to the east. Given a sufficiently strong and persistent WWB in March and April, any atmospheric movement toward El Niño will likely be enough to tip the scale in the equatorial Pacific. And as 2006 and 2009 showed, even weak El Niño conditions, if present by peak season, are enough to substantially shut down the Atlantic. (2004, while active overall, basically died after late September, as El Niño took hold.) At this point, with the WWB about to materialise, I think that El Niño is increasingly likely to be present by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, and may well evolve into a moderate or stronger event by wintertime. I am already betting on a somewhat below-average Atlantic and a relatively active Pacific basin. Of course, this says nothing about impacts, and if the PDO trends negatively, then steering currents could trend westerly, allowing at least a few impacts to the Caribbean and the American mainland. In fact, the NMME shows a potentially unusual configuration: -PDO / +ENSO (either El Niño or at least warm neutral) by peak season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8938 Postby NotSparta » Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:33 am

Shell Mound wrote:I think that the upcoming westerly wind burst (WWB), combined with subsurface progression, should be enough to reconfigure the large-scale dynamics, which include ocean-atmosphere interaction, into an El Niño-friendly base state. That impending transition will be pivotal to the development of El Niño; thus far the atmosphere has been in La Niña mode. The previously posted charts show that the subsurface warmth is actually somewhat more entrenched, depth-wise, than in February 2009, and in absolute terms is actually warmer than the subsurface in February 2015, albeit not as far to the east. Given a sufficiently strong and persistent WWB in March and April, any atmospheric movement toward El Niño will likely be enough to tip the scale in the equatorial Pacific. And as 2006 and 2009 showed, even weak El Niño conditions, if present by peak season, are enough to substantially shut down the Atlantic. (2004 basically died after late September, as El Niño took hold.) At this point, with the WWB about to materialise, I think that El Niño is increasingly likely to be present by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, and may well evolve into a moderate or stronger event by wintertime. I am already betting on a somewhat below-average Atlantic and a relatively active Pacific basin. Of course, this says nothing about impacts, and if the PDO trends negatively, then steering currents could trend westerly, allowing at least a few impacts to the Caribbean and the American mainland. In fact, the NMME shows a potentially unusual configuration: -PDO / +ENSO (either El Niño or at least warm neutral) by peak season.


Just nitpicking a bit, 2004 was actually active because of the El Nino, it was a Modoki meaning unfavorable EPAC and favorable Atlantic
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8939 Postby NDG » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:34 am

I think the best position at this point is to stay neutral, let the models come to a consensus, eventually (hopefully). :lol:
Even JB is laying low so far, after busting big time last year.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/975011399414972416



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/975012164158328832


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8940 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:15 am

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