ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[1900hurricane]

WPac TC is probably for real. We already have a well developed disturbance 96W moving into favorable conditions and across the board model support.



Also worth noting how low it is starting. 96W is below 5ºN right now. Once it starts cranking, it'll have clear implications on the equatorial winds.

[Kingarabian]

Not sure if I remember correctly, but I recall a discussion on here a couple of years ago that a Typhoon helped trigger a massive WWB that in turn triggered the 97 Super Nino?

[1900hurricane]

That would be Super Typhoon Isa, although Isa developed further east than 96W will.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dr Jeff Masters from wunderground suggested SuperTyphoon Haiyan kicked off a nino.
Cant locate the blog now. But i do recall reading it.

[NotSparta]

Besides the cooler air over North America, ENSO implications perhaps if real?

[twee]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/976810701284167680[/twee]

Could jumpstart a WWB to kill off or severely weaken Niña

That potential WWB would surely act as a reinforcement if this present WWB doesn't finish the job.

[Saving space]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/976465350266179584[/twee]

The January downwelling Kelvin Wave now looks inferior to the present downwelling Kelvin Wave due to the ongoing WWB -- but I would like to see anomalies a bit further east and over the dateline.

[img ]https://i.imgur.com/t06wuQM.gif[/img]

A WWB can trigger TC's, so that's likely why the EPS is bullish on a WPAC TC. We're seeing a chain reaction here.

I'm new to this but if the WWB or future ones stay that far west all I can really see is a Modoki El Niño.

[NotSparta]

:uarrow:

Not sure if I remember correctly, but I recall a discussion on here a couple of years ago that a Typhoon helped trigger a massive WWB that in turn triggered the 97 Super Nino?

I can't locate it now, but I remember hearing in 2015 there was a tc in the WPAC and SH at the same time that caused a huge WWB

[1900hurricane]

That was Tropical Cyclone Pam in the SPac.

[dexterlabio]

I can't locate it now, but I remember hearing in 2015 there was a tc in the WPAC and SH at the same time that caused a huge WWB

I think you're talking about the 2014 episode. There was a huge cloud cluster in the equator around April that separated into Peipah and Ita, the latter becoming a Cat5-equivalent cyclone which contributed to massive WWB.

If I'm not mistaken, El Nino conditions were already prevalent this time of the year in 2015 that's why there were already two pre-April super typhoons then (Higos and Maysak).

[Ntxw]

We probably need to step back a bit about the cause and effect of a tropical cyclone and WWB. The two are fluid. A tropical cyclone isn't the causation of a WWB. They form because it is conducive, in which atmospheric conditions (such as an occurring WWB) create a favorable environment. The two together is often a signal things are swinging one way vs another.

So the fact that there may be a TC of relative latitude while there is an occurring WWB is likely to feedback on each other.

So yes 2015 had a lot of TC activity early in the year in the Pacific, but the Pacific was already in an El Nino state from 2014.

[NotSparta]

 https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/977159372521508864




A lot different from last year

[Kingarabian]

Latest subsurface frame shows +4C anomalies returning at the depth:



The CFS V2 operational has reversed its La Nina stance and continues to move up, beginning to cross into neutral range. Most of its latest members are well into El Nino range.

[DANKENGINE420]

to be honest i still think el nino will come when you lot have autumn and should end when the 2019 atlantic hurricane season comes about (albeit a very weak one)

[Shell Mound]

https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ

Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.

[DANKENGINE420]

https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ

Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.

this is also why i think the el nino-like conditions will quickly swallow up the atlantic during peak time of the hurricane season. it will come quicker than y'all can think. remember 2006?

[MetroMike]

:)

https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ

Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.

this is also why i think the el nino-like conditions will quickly swallow up the atlantic during peak time of the hurricane season. it will come quicker than y'all can think. remember 2006?

ENSO forecasts in the spring in the Northern Hemisphere are not to be taken seriously according to historical data also noted by Phil Klotzbach.

[CyclonicFury]

Last year I don’t think anyone expected a transition to La Niña by the fall. SPB makes forecasts challenging, and we can’t just assume that the 2018 AHS will be any ENSO state.

[Ntxw]

Last year I don’t think anyone expected a transition to La Niña by the fall. SPB makes forecasts challenging, and we can’t just assume that the 2018 AHS will be any ENSO state.

That is quite true. By spring the surface warming was deceptive. But below the surface it was a pretty good sign there would be no Nino. If you followed historical trends, the double dip Nina after a super Nino was better odds than not we just didn't want to take it for face value. Both of those same signals this year favor neutral to warm neutral with slight odds of El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Latest subsurface frame shows +4C anomalies returning at the depth:

https://i.imgur.com/vzI8NlS.gif

The CFS V2 operational has reversed its La Nina stance and continues to move up, beginning to cross into neutral range. Most of its latest members are well into El Nino range.

https://i.imgur.com/xA5grKp.gif

And expanding.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

A good link.
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... /anim.html

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... m_2mw.html





The jet's cactus /split from the effects of the remaining cool water in 3.4.

[Kingarabian]

We can see the WWB in full effect on this CDAS 850mb wind analysis: