2018 EPAC Season

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#41 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:49 pm

Eric Webb seems to be bullish on the upcoming EPAC hurricane season due to the historically strong PMM:



https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/982314817657729024




https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/982315699828871173


I guess the PMM is now getting a lot of attention due to the Super El Nino of 2015.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#42 Postby BadLarry95 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:01 pm

Anyone else find the epac dreadfully boring? I don’t even waste my time on those
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#43 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:11 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:Anyone else find the epac dreadfully boring? I don’t even waste my time on those


The EPAC gave us Patricia.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#44 Postby StruThiO » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:13 pm

:uarrow: heavens no, I love tropical weather regardless of basin..
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#45 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:20 pm

How does this basin usually do in a neutral state king. I have followed the epac season in elnino when it been as hyper as the wpac Neutral is better for my part of the world in
general with not so dry conditions. True elnino means wide spreed drought over Australia
and very dry condition in parts of se Asia. Maybe neutral is a better balance with moisture
in the shem and se asia and storms to track in the epac and atl.?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#46 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:37 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:Anyone else find the epac dreadfully boring? I don’t even waste my time on those


Mexico has endured many strong hurricane landfalls and also the Pacific side of CentralAmerica has seen many flooding and mudslide events with Tropical systems going to that area so in other words,EPAC is not all out to sea Tropical Cyclones. When the new satelite GOES WEST begins operations,we will have extraordinary views of the Tropical systems regardless they affect land or not.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#47 Postby Chris90 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:04 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:Anyone else find the epac dreadfully boring? I don’t even waste my time on those


To me, the only disadvantage to the EPac when compared to the ATL is the lack of recon coverage due to the fact the storms don't threaten land as often over there. On the other hand, the lack of threatening land is a huge bonus. I'd rather watch a storm churn through the open ocean and blow up rather than see an Irma/Maria type situation where the storm blows up and is a catastrophic event. The only exciting thing with those storms was the amount of data collected, but the price the Caribbean had to pay just isn't worth it.

I'll bet 20-30 years from now the EPac will be just as exciting to track or even more so due to advances in satellites as well as advancements with the drones and other equipment they are using to study tropical cyclones.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#48 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:57 pm

We can see EPAC longtrackers if these very warm sst anomalies hold thru the next few months.Hawaii may have to watch out.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:34 pm

If +PMM can sustain itself for more than a few months, that'd be a strong sign for a more active season more so than if it crashed again. Regardless, the current setup would likely favor a return of long trackers we saw regularly in 2014 and 2015 - not to mention the overall historical cycles would favor a return to the quality over quantity types of season that the basin is notorious for.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#50 Postby Chris90 » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:19 pm

I know cycloneye posted his guess on this season's numbers on the first page, so I'm going to post mine now.

My guess is 17-11-7.

I'm still quite the newbie when it comes to analyzing all the factors that affect a season, so my guess is based off the analysis I've seen from others mixed with a lot of just pure gut feeling.

Anybody else care to make a guess yet?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:09 pm

Wow,time goes by fast as we are only one month away from the oficial start of the 2018 season.Still there is a good deal of uncertainty at this point in mid April because of how ENSO will be in the next few months.Also,the PDO has flipped barely to negative and that is another factor to watch.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:20 pm

Kingarabian,look at this for the future in Hawaii.

@EricBlake12
Big increase in TC activity foreseen for the central Pacific and #Hawaii by the end of the century in some of the latest climate models. Big SST increases and circulation changes seem to be the culprits


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https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/985935563722317826
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#53 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:35 am

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian,look at this for the future in Hawaii.

@EricBlake12
Big increase in TC activity foreseen for the central Pacific and #Hawaii by the end of the century in some of the latest climate models. Big SST increases and circulation changes seem to be the culprits


[img]https://i.imgur.com/mPx52pR.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/985935563722317826[tweet]


Yeah. The number of close calls Hawaii has been through in the last couple of years has been quite concerning to say the least. Especially since the majority of Hawaii's residents are not prepared for a hurricane and neither are the structures of their properties. A major hurricane hitting Hawaii could very well be Puerto Rico 2.0 or even worse when the circumstances are considered (not to diminish what those folks had to go through of course!).
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#54 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:04 pm

Basically the oceans near and east of Hawaii are warming from 25-26C to 26-27C. What little SST barrier there has been protecting the island chain has been on the decline in recent years, and this should only continue in future decades.

A major hurricane hitting Hawaii would probably have similar to many of the infamous South Pacific cyclones like Martin and Winston. Also a double wammy could be catostrophic.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:00 am

Are you kidding me? Phanthom all the way.Hopefully,the new upgraded GFS comes out sooner than what they have proyected.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#56 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:05 pm

Maybe GFS sniffs that thing because of this?

@webberweather
Wouldn't be shocked if the NE Pac produced their 1st TC of the yr when favorable intraseasonal forcing is superimposed over the basin again in early-mid May. Remarkable to see the E-CP ITCZ this active in spite of a suppressed MJO regime last week. You can thank the +PMM for that


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https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988143067931738114
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#57 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:Are you kidding me? Phanthom all the way.Hopefully,the new upgraded GFS comes out sooner than what they have proyected.

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Whoa.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#58 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:35 pm

Although it likely doesn't mean too much, the EPAC east of 110W has appeared to cool down while the CPAC remains warm.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#59 Postby NotSparta » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:46 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Although it likely doesn't mean too much, the EPAC east of 110W has appeared to cool down while the CPAC remains warm.

Image


Appears to be a combination of cooling induced by the GoM-cooling front and cool anomalies sliding south and tying to form a more coherent -PDO pattern
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#60 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:59 am

webberweather
Replying to @NotSparta_wx @raileyky and 2 others
Good luck keeping the EP quiet w/ warm neutral ENSO and raging +PMM, this will push the ITCZ there further north favoring more TC activity that'll increase the shear in the Caribbean regardless of whether there's actually an El Nino or not. See 2014...
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