Could we get 2 name storms before june?
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?
Yes it has, two times in the past 6 years. 2012, and 2016. Btw, in my opinion there's probably about a 50/50 shot of it happening again this May.
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?
There's a decent chance of it happening. I think at least one of them will become a named storm.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?
Here are all the known cases since 1851, with date of formation listed:
1887 Storm #1 – 15 May - TS
1887 Storm #2 – 17 May – TS
1908 Storm #1 – 6 Mar – C2
1908 Storm #2 – 24 May – C1
1951 Storm #1 – 4 Jan - TS
1951 ABLE – 16 May – C1
2012 ALBERTO – 19 May - TS
2012 BERYL – 26 May - TS
Seasonal ACE values:
1887: ACE 181
1908: ACE 95
1951: ACE 126
2012: ACE 129
Average 1951-2000 ACE: 93.2
Sources: Wikipedia, HURDAT
Three-fourths of the years ended up at least slightly above average in terms of ACE. 1908 was apparently about average.
Interestingly, all of the years were fairly active in the MDR, at least in terms of TS-strength storm formation(s).
1887 Storm #1 – 15 May - TS
1887 Storm #2 – 17 May – TS
1908 Storm #1 – 6 Mar – C2
1908 Storm #2 – 24 May – C1
1951 Storm #1 – 4 Jan - TS
1951 ABLE – 16 May – C1
2012 ALBERTO – 19 May - TS
2012 BERYL – 26 May - TS
Seasonal ACE values:
1887: ACE 181
1908: ACE 95
1951: ACE 126
2012: ACE 129
Average 1951-2000 ACE: 93.2
Sources: Wikipedia, HURDAT
Three-fourths of the years ended up at least slightly above average in terms of ACE. 1908 was apparently about average.
Interestingly, all of the years were fairly active in the MDR, at least in terms of TS-strength storm formation(s).
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?
Shell Mound wrote:Here are all the known cases since 1851, with date of formation listed:
1887 Storm #1 – 15 May - TS
1887 Storm #2 – 17 May – TS
1908 Storm #1 – 6 Mar – C2
1908 Storm #2 – 24 May – C1
1951 Storm #1 – 4 Jan - TS
1951 ABLE – 16 May – C1
2012 ALBERTO – 19 May - TS
2012 BERYL – 26 May - TS
Seasonal ACE values:
1887: ACE 181
1908: ACE 95
1951: ACE 126
2012: ACE 129
Average 1951-2000 ACE: 93.2
Sources: Wikipedia, HURDAT
Three-fourths of the years ended up at least slightly above average in terms of ACE. 1908 was apparently about average.
Interestingly, all of the years were fairly active in the MDR, at least in terms of TS-strength storm formation(s).
Average ACE for those years is 132.75.
I can't find ENSO data for 1887 or 1908, but 1951 was followed by a weak-moderate El Nino (peak ONI was 0.9) and 2012 was a failed El Nino. It does appear that this activity is linked with at least a warm up of ENSO and at least the attempt at a Nino.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?
27 storms have formed in May since 1851 until 2017.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?
I doubt we will see two named storms before June at this point, especially with the Gulf of Mexico disturbance failing to organize. We could still get Alberto this month if a gyre forms, but even that may not happen.
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