2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8150
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#321 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 16, 2018 5:58 pm

18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.

Image
0 likes   
Image

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3050
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#322 Postby floridasun78 » Wed May 16, 2018 6:00 pm

do think too early still say this likely happen south fl dont need this or any other area as beach here going be pack for long weekend
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3050
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#323 Postby floridasun78 » Wed May 16, 2018 6:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.


this not aug so you discount this that look like hurricane irma
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#324 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 16, 2018 6:46 pm

With all the consistency with many of the major models and euro also showing something- this potential sheared tropical cyclone has my attention. Models show a lot of rain especially for the east coast of Florida and the Keys long range- regardless of development Florida might have some big flooding problems down the road. Parts of South Florida have seen 7 inches of rain this week.
3 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1261
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#325 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 16, 2018 7:19 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:With all the consistency with many of the major models and euro also showing something- this potential sheared tropical cyclone has my attention. Models show a lot of rain especially for the east coast of Florida and the Keys long range- regardless of development Florida might have some big flooding problems down the road. Parts of South Florida have seen 7 inches of rain this week.


Yep, if the trend keeps up and with the majority of models(outside of the gfs!) continue to show it this may hint at Alberto. It wouldn't surprise me as this is near or within an week of the time the A storm typically forms within the gulf or western caribbean.
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#326 Postby johngaltfla » Wed May 16, 2018 7:29 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.

this not aug so you discount this that look like hurricane irma


Technically, you are correct. However a Cat 1 hurricane for SW Florida is not unusual for late May-Early June in the hurricane season. Would I be shocked no? Would I be mad? Oh yes so those roofers best finish up by Friday!!!!!! :eek: :grr:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20260
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#327 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 16, 2018 7:55 pm

FV3 GFS going with a 960mb CAT 3 major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf. The experimental model that is supposed to replace the current GFS needs some tweaking.
2 likes   

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 728
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Miami, Fla.
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#328 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed May 16, 2018 9:27 pm

Evening everyone,

It's looking as if this season is going to start off busy. The wave that came in from the Bahamas a week or so ago, then the current disturbance soaking S. Fla, Now a potential TC in a week or so. I don't see the SST's along the Gulf coast that warm to support a high end Cat 1 let alone a Cat 2,, but looks to be windy and wet no matter what forms.
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9030
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#329 Postby NDG » Wed May 16, 2018 9:46 pm

This would really stink if models pan out for Memorial weekend, a lot of beach plans will be ruined. Good thing that this is still in the 7-10 day range and things could still change, hoping for ridging to build in and keep it away from FL.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 503
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#330 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed May 16, 2018 10:59 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.

this not aug so you discount this that look like hurricane irma


Technically, you are correct. However a Cat 1 hurricane for SW Florida is not unusual for late May-Early June in the hurricane season. Would I be shocked no? Would I be mad? Oh yes so those roofers best finish up by Friday!!!!!! :eek: :grr:


? That's still extremely, extremely rare. A weak TS is not unusual for SW Florida in early June. I can only think of 1-2 occurrences in the last 70 years where a Cat 1 has it Florida before June 15th.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

CyclonicFury
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#331 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 16, 2018 11:04 pm

Would not be surprised to see a sheared moderate TS making landfall in NW Florida sometime around Memorial Day weekend. Still a long way out, but that would be the favored track for this time of year.
1 likes   
My forecasts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1261
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#332 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 16, 2018 11:27 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening everyone,

It's looking as if this season is going to start off busy. The wave that came in from the Bahamas a week or so ago, then the current disturbance soaking S. Fla, Now a potential TC in a week or so. I don't see the SST's along the Gulf coast that warm to support a high end Cat 1 let alone a Cat 2,, but looks to be windy and wet no matter what forms.

Image

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 1995

RECON SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 74 KNOTS...SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS
NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE. ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER OF ALLISON...OVERALL THE STORM IS NOT THAT
WELL ORGANIZED. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS
WHICH DO NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...BUT IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT ALLISON WILL STRENGTHEN BEYOND CATEGORY ONE STATUS.
NOTWITHSTANDING...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10
FEET STILL EXISTS FOR THE COASTAL AREA OF APALACHEE BAY.

RECON FIXES SHOW A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR 14 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
IS JUST A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORE
REASONABLE-LOOKING OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS. THE MID- AND
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOWS LOOK ZONAL ENOUGH TO THE NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE
TO CARRY THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NE UNITED STATES
AFTER ALLISON...IF IT SURVIVES ITS TRANSIT OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES...EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 28.2N 86.1W 65 KTS
12HR VT 05/1200Z 30.1N 85.6W 70 KTS
24HR VT 06/0000Z 32.2N 83.9W 35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 81.0W 30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0000Z 36.0N 77.5W 30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 69.0W 30 KTS

NNNN


Image

It's possible but unlikely! ;) And yes, this alison weakened to a tropical storm on the northern coast but it wasn't far from land as a hurricane.
2 likes   

User avatar
TheProfessor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2290
Age: 21
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: From Southlake Tx Now studying in Columbus Ohio.

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#333 Postby TheProfessor » Thu May 17, 2018 2:14 am

Going to be watching this closely, going to be going on vacation to Jamaica this Saturday and it seems like the models have been wavering on whether Jamaica sees a quite a bit of rain or very little. It would actually be better for me to have a stronger storm near CA(but worse for them) and I'm going to need that Ridge to flex its muscles lol.
0 likes   
[img][/img]Pleases do not base information on my forecast, I am an amateur!

P.S I am not a real Professor!

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#334 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu May 17, 2018 4:09 am

Euro brings our potential future tropical storm up the west coast of Florida bringing heavy rain and wind to the entire peninsula. 996 mb just west of Tampa Bay on day 10. The consistency of the euro as well as other models has my close attention.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110556
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#335 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2018 5:18 am

Here is the 00z Euro on day 10.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5939
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#336 Postby northjaxpro » Thu May 17, 2018 5:40 am

6Z GFS just out in agreement with the latest EURO in showing our potential tropical cyclone emerging off the Florida West Coast. It is showing 990 mb strong TS /borderline cat 1 cane just west of Tampa Bay at 240 hours.

Later, GFS moves it to make landfall at Apalachicola in 264 hours.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5939
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#337 Postby northjaxpro » Thu May 17, 2018 5:55 am

:uarrow: A track like the EURO and GFS is currently showing would bring serious flooding concerns to much of the Florida peninsula, especially North and Central Florida. I am watching this very closely. Also, potential tornadoes would be a major concern as well if this track were to pan out.
2 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1757
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#338 Postby Florida1118 » Thu May 17, 2018 7:15 am

Wrap of last night's frames showing the area as it starts to organize. Definitely consensus on some disturbed weather in the Caribbean late next week:

Image

Image

Image

Image
2 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 522
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#339 Postby BobHarlem » Thu May 17, 2018 7:37 am

Memorial Weekend looks, um, interesting, for Florida with the 6Z GFS. The GFS showing a hurricane stalled off of Tampa over that weekend is going to ruin a lot of plans. Euro is showing the same thing. It being May is a guarantee of it being a really messy disorganized system in any case.
1 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1419
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#340 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 17, 2018 8:03 am

going to be interesting to watch, but don't jump the gun yet, these models have already been going wacko this year even though I think they are on to something
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests