2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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LarryWx
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#341 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 17, 2018 8:07 am

There is now near unanimous agreement that there will be a tropical low forming in the NW Caribbean about 7 days from now or around 5/24. (This compares to those GFS runs on their own around a week ago that were forming it there around 5/18-19 and turning it into an unrealistic for May cat 2 H later hitting FL on many runs.)

From there, the models have it move northward to or near FL around day 10 (near 5/27). Most models bring it to TS strength then though GFS runs have a cat 1 H. I think TS strength would be more realistic in late May. FL is now clearly at risk for a TS around 5/27 with this model agreement.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu May 17, 2018 8:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#342 Postby gatorcane » Thu May 17, 2018 8:12 am

06Z GFS ensembles clustered in the EGOM and west coast of Florida:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#343 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 17, 2018 8:19 am

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#344 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2018 8:25 am

Ventrice is still skeptic.

@MJVentrice
A bit more credibility for a potential tropical threat over the Gulf of Mexico the weekend of Memorial Day. Still a lot left for the models to resolve, but I cannot overlook the fact that the GEM and ECMWF and in agreement with the GFS now. Still room for change as fcst comes in


@MJVentrice
Even though there's agreement now, I'm still skeptical on the idea of this system developing. It clearly has a more credible shot, but there's a lot of things the models have to get right in order to nail this forecast. Call me a skeptic, but we have hard time in the tropics
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#345 Postby weathaguyry » Thu May 17, 2018 8:41 am

The FV3-GFS is the new comedy section of tropical tidbits :lol:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#346 Postby gatorcane » Thu May 17, 2018 8:49 am

Experimental FIM also shows development in the NW Caribbean, 168 hours below:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#347 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 17, 2018 8:50 am

EURO on board then I am almost on board still need a Low to form...just so hard to trust models right now this early on in the season but should be fun to watch the next 2 weeks
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#348 Postby MGC » Thu May 17, 2018 9:06 am

weathaguyry wrote:The FV3-GFS is the new comedy section of tropical tidbits :lol:


It is.....06Z run has a 933mb cane on Louisiana coast on May 31st.....MGC
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#349 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 17, 2018 9:08 am

Storm2k getting an early start this season..hopefully not a sign of what's to come for the 2018 season. This would ruin many folks MDW plans depending where it goes :cry:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#350 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 17, 2018 9:14 am

MGC wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:The FV3-GFS is the new comedy section of tropical tidbits :lol:


It is.....06Z run has a 933mb cane on Louisiana coast on May 31st.....MGC


And it sits on the SE Louisiana coast for 2 days as a major hurricane, putting New Orleans underwater. This "upgraded" GFS is going to be interesting...
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#351 Postby chris_fit » Thu May 17, 2018 9:24 am

Anyone know what the FSU SE says?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#352 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 17, 2018 9:29 am

New GFS shows the storm managing to use the subtropical jet as an outflow jet :lol:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#353 Postby PSUHiker31 » Thu May 17, 2018 9:33 am

The FV3 is hot garbage as most meteorologists thought when they chose it for the upgrade over the better option.

Of course on the extremely tiny chance it's sniffing something out the other models aren't (I'll give it that the Euro underdid intensity often last year at this range), then I'll eat my words. But I sincerely doubt that will be the case.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#354 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 17, 2018 9:54 am

How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#355 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 17, 2018 10:00 am

LarryWx wrote:How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.


GoM is warming, especially the N GOM. It might be enhanced by that outflow jet it shows (this would require low environmental shear and little dry air too to become so strong. It is extremely unlikely, and is probably tied to too much convective feedback)

it reminds me of the NAM actually. Does quite well with extratropical wx, but consistently overdoes TCs
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#356 Postby Frank2 » Thu May 17, 2018 10:08 am

Unlike Irma last year, I'm retired now, so I don't have to remain in South Florida, for this stuff...

When will the current area of disturbed weather be considered an Invest - there's enough weather moving north from Cuba at this time.

Frank
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#357 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 17, 2018 10:11 am

LarryWx wrote:How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.


It's very unrealistic in the real world for such an outcome that far north with current SSTs. Unless you were looking a bombing system in the Carib that quickly moved north and merged with the jet stream with some deep trof which is nothing like what the FV3 is showing. It's very difficult to bomb something in the Atlantic even during the heart of the season with much warmer SSTss, no less in May..

In general the model consensus we can all agree is increased Carib moisture into the eastern and Ngulf from WWB coming over from the EPAC which has been the case for the past week now, example the last system.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#358 Postby NDG » Thu May 17, 2018 10:34 am

Already a noticeable vortex over the SW Caribbean, looking at the 06z GFS this is the main area of vorticity that it has almost stalled over the next 3-5 days or so before moving over the NW Caribbean mid next week.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#359 Postby Alyono » Thu May 17, 2018 10:52 am

Ntxw wrote:
LarryWx wrote:How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM
not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.


It's very unrealistic in the real world for such an outcome that far north with current SSTs. Unless you were looking a bombing system in the Carib that quickly moved north and merged with the jet stream with some deep trof which is nothing like what the FV3 is showing. It's very difficult to bomb something in the Atlantic even during the heart of the season with much warmer SSTss, no less in May..

In general the model consensus we can all agree is increased Carib moisture into the eastern and Ngulf from WWB coming over from the EPAC which has been the case for the past week now, example the last system.


looking at the 250mb winds, it seems to be perfectly tapping into the jet stream. Very strong NW outflow jet
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#360 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu May 17, 2018 11:24 am

Until there is some sort of center that models can pinpoint, any future track would be pointless to look at in the long range.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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