2018 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#181 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 24, 2018 6:54 am

EURO joining in.

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GFS has development even closer...192 hours, 963 mb peak, and right through Tokyo...

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#182 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 24, 2018 6:55 am

WIll June be an active month? GFS develops a 2nd second behind it...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#183 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 24, 2018 8:15 pm

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/999605680385359874




Thought i would also share this on the WPAC thread as the entire Pacific is forecast to have a strong and heavy season.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#184 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 25, 2018 12:17 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#185 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 25, 2018 6:23 am

Drastic now has Ewiniar moving towards Taiwan/China.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#186 Postby JoshwaDone » Sat May 26, 2018 4:06 am

GFS being inconsistent on Ewiniar's existence on early June, while ECMWF is consistent.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#187 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 26, 2018 6:58 am

Navgem and EURO stronger while GFS shows little to no development until Taiwan.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#188 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 27, 2018 6:18 am

943 mb.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#189 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 27, 2018 6:19 am

Long range GFS showing another typhoon in the SCS.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#190 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 27, 2018 7:36 am

euro6208 wrote:943 mb.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/dh4v82U.png[img]


I think the GFS is too strong this far out, but maybe something comes out of this. Looks like there is a bit of consensus here
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#191 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 27, 2018 7:34 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#192 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 27, 2018 7:43 pm

Non tropical related but the plume from the Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has spread westward to the Marshall Islands and Micronesia.


000
WWPQ80 PGUM 270435
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
235 PM ChST Sun May 27 2018

PMZ172-173-174-181-280500-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
235 PM ChST Sun May 27 2018

...VOLCANIC HAZE SPREADING ACROSS MICRONESIA...

THE LATEST NOAA HYSPLIT MODEL RUN EXECUTED BY WFO GUAM PROJECTS HAZE
PRODUCED BY KILAUEA VOLCANO IN HAWAII TO SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TRAJECTORY INDICATES HAZE WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MICRONESIA.

A HAZE PLUME IS BARELY VISIBLE ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS.
LOCAL WEATHER OBSERVERS AT BOTH KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO IN THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS HAVE REPORTED HAZE AT THE AIRPORTS TODAY. THIS HAZE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER WESTWARD AND REACH KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND
POSSIBLY CHUUK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS MICRONESIA FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR WEATHER AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICES. RESIDENTS WITH RESPIRATORY HEALTH PROBLEMS SHOULD
STAY INDOORS AND AVOID BEING OUTDOORS WHEN HAZE IS SEEN. MARINERS AND
PILOTS NEED TO BE AWARE OF LOWER VISIBILITIES CAUSED BY THIS HAZE.

THIS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALONG WITH THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MICRONESIA IS AVAILABLE ON THE WFO GUAM WEBSITE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/

$$

CHAN


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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#193 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 28, 2018 7:59 am

EURO and GFS now in agreement on the SCS system.

1000mb and 998mb landfall for Hainan Island. GFS peaks it at 989mb...

Looks like our phantom first system got dropped as per latest run.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#194 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 28, 2018 8:37 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#195 Postby Ed_2001 » Mon May 28, 2018 2:46 pm

Woah, still early but GFS has a powerful typhoon slamming into densely populated Hong Kong/Pearl river delta region. Euro has a weaker storm going into Hainan island. Definitely something to keep an eye on as both models now agrees on cyclone genesis in 4-5 days.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#196 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 28, 2018 4:44 pm

Yikes.

Anyways, the Philippine Sea storm basically fizzled only EURO develops it into a weak TS.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#197 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 28, 2018 7:12 pm

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Timeframe closing in and although weaker has Hong Kong in the crosshair.

The 00z euro run will be interesting...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#198 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 28, 2018 7:20 pm

euro6208 wrote:Non tropical related but the plume from the Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has spread westward to the Marshall Islands and Micronesia.


It has now reach the Marianas.

000
WWMY80 PGUM 282322
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
922 AM ChST Tue May 29 2018

GUZ001>004-292100-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
922 AM ChST Tue May 29 2018

...VOLCANIC HAZE FROM MOUNT KILAUEA REACHES THE MARIANAS...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITIES
OF AROUND 7 MILES INDICATE THAT VOLCANIC HAZE PRODUCED BY MOUNT
KILAUEA IN HAWAII HAS REACHED THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DENSE PLUME OF HAZE SPANNING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THAT BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE CLOSER TO THE MARIANAS. THE HAZE IS BEING CARRIED ALONG BY
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING HAZE INTO THE MARIANAS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
REDIRECT HAZE FARTHER TO THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK THUS REDUCING THE
HAZE IN THE MARIANAS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE MARIANAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR INFORMATION
FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. RESIDENTS WITH RESPIRATORY HEALTH PROBLEMS SHOULD
STAY INDOORS AND MINIMIZE TIME OUTDOORS WHEN HAZE IS SEEN. MARINERS
AND PILOTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES CAUSED BY
THIS HAZE.

THIS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALONG WITH THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST
FOR THE MARIANAS IS AVAILABLE ON THE WFO GUAM WEBSITE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/

$$

AYDLETT


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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#199 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 29, 2018 7:46 am

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Pre-Ewiniar. Both GFS and EURO has the vorticity east of Mindanao.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#200 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 29, 2018 7:55 am

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Large cluster of convection induced by a passing Kelvin Wave. Major models currently not developing anything significant from this area.

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Here comes the MJO.
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