How many tropical cyclones do you think will form in the Atlantic this July?

[CyclonicFury]

I think we will get one tropical storm in the Atlantic this July, at a high latitude just off the US east coast.

Mods, can you please add a poll, with none, one, two, and three or more as options?

[Hurricane Mike]

I'll say none. We could still see potential threats or even a major hurricane in August, but I'm guessing we won't be far down the name list by then. Probably still be on Beryl/Chris/Debby by late August.

[HurricaneRyan]

I also agree with none.

[StruThiO]

Gonna have to go with one

[underthwx]

I think there will be 3, hopefully all fish storms.

[Weather150]

One.

[wxman57]

Zero. Beryl forms second week of August. The month of June ends with a massive cloud of dry, dusty air extending from Africa to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Deep tropics are quite hostile, presently.

[CFLHurricane]

I’m going with zero due to the frigid hostile conditions in generally hostile month.

I still believe this season will be slightly more active than normal, but we will have to wait for climatology to catch up before the party starts.

[NDG]

Two. Maybe one in the GOM and or one or two in the NW subtropical Atlantic. MDR is closed for business during July.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going with one. It will be either in the Gulf of Mexico or off the SE U.S. Coast. Not too often are both June and July void of any tropical development in the Atlantic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

One in a few weeks.

[EasyTiger]

Going with two. One forms this weekend from the MCS remnants in the NE Gulf. A second, more vigorous storm at the end of July.

[AutoPenalti]

One.


MDR season doesn’t open till August.

[Shell Mound]

The strong SAL outbreaks have been extremely commonplace this year. In fact, despite the wet Sahel, the dust levels over the Atlantic are at near-record levels. Combined with the potent TUTT, the SAL is one big reason to wait until August. Beryl is unlikely to form in a July that is so hostile. July also marks the climatological peak strength of the subtropical high (easterly trades), which induces shear and cool SSTs. 2018 will probably be similar to some average-to-below-average seasons from the late 1970s and the 1980s. Several of those years did not feature a first or second named storm prior to August.

[CyclonicFury]

Well, there's going to be at least one.

[TheStormExpert]

I thought there would be one, just didn’t expect it to be in the MDR with the current SAL outbreaks and the state of the SST’s.

Unlike Bret, TD #4, and Don of last June and July in the Tropical Atlantic this shouldn’t be any indication of what’s to come.

[psyclone]

Well I had 0 so I've already busted. Beryl is most impressive given the location and calendar.

[BobHarlem]

Well with Beryl & TD#3 (Which will probably become named) this poll was a big bust for most. Including me, who voted "None". I was pretty confident until yesterday.

[NotSparta]

I voted one. My prediction too is a bust

[Shell Mound]

There might be an opportunity for one more storm toward the very end of July, based on the MJO. However, early August may prove to be a better bet.