2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#641 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:57 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has developed a little over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
during the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Roberts


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#642 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:54 am

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#643 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:20 pm

The GFS has been hinting on TS Gilma forming briefly (Invest 98E), and the past couple of Euro runs show what would be Hector and Ileana crossing the EPAC into the CPAC.

The CPHC season forecast for the CPAC was 3-6 storms. Within the next 10 days alone, there's a strong possibility we'll break half that tally.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#644 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:46 pm

Still expecting activity to pick up in late July but it's looking less likely this will be the super hyperactive season some thought last month. The +PMM pattern has degraded, and the EPAC so far is yet to have a single named storm form this month. Overall, I think activity will end up above average for this season due to the weak-moderate El Niño, but without a strong +PDO or +PMM it's not likely to be a record breaking season.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#645 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:37 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Still expecting activity to pick up in late July but it's looking less likely this will be the super hyperactive season some thought last month. The +PMM pattern has degraded, and the EPAC so far is yet to have a single named storm form this month. Overall, I think activity will end up above average for this season due to the weak-moderate El Niño, but without a strong +PDO or +PMM it's not likely to be a record breaking season.


Agreed. I'm thinking if it's above average, it may be like 2009, but not 2014 or 2015.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#646 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:33 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#647 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:50 pm

Things should still pick up during the 2nd half of July and to start August.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#648 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:59 pm

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Honestly while a different SST configuration from a few months ago and more of a 2014 style configuration than a classic +PDO configuration that doesn't suggest one that is hostile for development. The talk of a record breaking season is too bullish today if you ask me, but I always thought expectations were too high going in. I expect 2018 to be somewhat close to 2016 in terms of final activity numbers though with lower ACE, which is only slightly less bullish than I was thinking 2 or 3 months ago. If 2017 was 1986 (a comparison I made a lot last season in terms of phase within the activity cycle though at the time, I still thought 2017 could pull of an El Nino), 2018 is 1987.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#649 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:50 am

We're still on track with 2009, 2014, and 2015 in terms of storm numbers. With the MJO entering the region and the models trying to sniff out systems, I'm going to wait till mid August before I back track from hyperactive to average season.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#650 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:We're still on track with 2009, 2014, and 2015 in terms of storm numbers. With the MJO entering the region and the models trying to sniff out systems, I'm going to wait till mid August before I back track from hyperactive to average season.


Most models don't bring MJO over for a while. ECMWF is off and on regarding development next week. We'll have help via a CCKW soon but I'm not too optimistic. EPAC has a very broad peak though so a more active season than I'm expecting is not impossible.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#651 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:44 pm

Likely ex-98E but since that's not re-activated posting here.

139
ABPZ20 KNHC 131145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for some development of the
disturbance in a few days as it moves westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#652 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:46 pm

A trough of low pressure located over 1500 miles southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development of the disturbance in a day or
two as it moves westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Also this isn't ex-98E. Ex-98E is near 140W.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#653 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:57 pm

:uarrow: Euro was trying to develop this area a few days ago. GFS now develops it.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#654 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:37 pm

I'd probably wait till I see actual development before I believe it. Far too many ghost storms in this basin in 2017 and 2018.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#655 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:43 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I'd probably wait till I see actual development before I believe it. Far too many ghost storms in this basin in 2017 and 2018.


I think we'll likely see a few systems form. What I'm going to be looking to see is whether these systems struggle with development or not -- that'll be a big indicator that the EPAC is still not conducive.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#656 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:52 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located over 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce a
large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This
system has changed little today, but environmental conditions are
expected to become a little more conducive for development in a day
or two as the disturbance moves westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#657 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:49 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I'd probably wait till I see actual development before I believe it. Far too many ghost storms in this basin in 2017 and 2018.


I mean I've seen enough model hints that would suggest development is possible but given the pattern I don't think we see anything more than a 50-55 knot tropical storm, if that.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#658 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:41 am

00z GFS much weaker, pretty much keeps it a depression the whole way.

00z Euro back a bit stronger to show a minimal TS. Also shows a decent TS @ 240 hours near 100W.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#659 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:04 am

Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS much weaker, pretty much keeps it a depression the whole way.

00z Euro back a bit stronger to show a minimal TS. Also shows a decent TS @ 240 hours near 100W.


You mean't 120W.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#660 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:31 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although
the disturbance has changed little in organization since yesterday,
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development in a couple of days while the system moves westward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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