2018 EPAC Season

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#961 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:47 am

Lane made it to Cat 4. Season is 11/6/4 with all four majors reaching Cat 4 status.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#962 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:46 am

@philklotzbach
Hurricane #Lane is now a Category 4 hurricane - the 4th Cat. 4 #hurricane of the 2018 Northeast Pacific (to 180°) season to date. The 3rd time on record that the Northeast Pacific has had 4 Cat. 4+ hurricanes by August 18. Other years were 2014 & 2015.


 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1030814575057195008


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#963 Postby Macrocane » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:45 am

I'm not sure yet if the Atlantic +AMO era has ended but it seems very likely that the EPAC is already in an active phase.

Since 2013 the Atlantic has had 2 below average seasons (2013, 2015), 1 normal (2014) 1 above average (2016) and 1 hyperactive (2017), and it seems that 2018 will be another below average.

Since 2013 the EPAC has had 1 below average (2013), 1 normal (2017), 2 above normal (2014, 2016) and 1 hyperactive (2015). It seems that 2018 will end up above average.

2013 was a weird year for oceans and atmosphere around the world and the anomalies that occurred that year caused a climate shift enhanced by the Super El Niño of 2014-2016. Are there any studies on a big climate shift that year, similar to the 1976-1977 and 1998-1999 Pacific climate shifts?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#964 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:44 am

A tropical wave located about 900 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Any development of this system
during the next couple of days should be slow to occur while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#965 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:45 am

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#966 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:56 am

The GFS showing two EPAC systems in the long-range:

Image
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#967 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:52 pm

Looks like the basin will continue to be active in the next couple of weeks adding more ACE to the already above average pace.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#968 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:15 pm

12z ECMWF showing hints of two systems at day 10.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#969 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:18 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#970 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:39 pm

This season probably hasn't peaked yet, but it has surprised us thus far. It has surprised us.

Yellow Evan wrote:While I basically nailed 2017 as a late 80s redux, I don't really have any strong opinions on how it will roll yet, but I'm not betting on a insane season. My guess is another 2017


At first it was set to be one, but now it's doing the opposite. The last two major hurricanes have been at least a cat 3 for over 72 hours each, unlike the first half of the season. We're now seeing long-lived, intense hurricanes. ACE is about double the average for this time and it has been historic. Half right----but it's like the 2017 in the Atlantic. :wink:

I know, quoting old posts is fun. :lol: 8-)

DANKENGINE420 wrote:duration: may 23-november 26
strongest storm: lane (c4)
weakest storm: carlotta
longest lasting: lane
shortest lasting: carlotta
power couple: kristy x lane (krane)*

*both are c4 long-trackers in september


You're right about Lane, but Hector and Lane seems to be the power couple. And about Lane, it's still alive xD
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#971 Postby DioBrando » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:07 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:This season probably hasn't peaked yet, but it has surprised us thus far. It has surprised us.

Yellow Evan wrote:While I basically nailed 2017 as a late 80s redux, I don't really have any strong opinions on how it will roll yet, but I'm not betting on a insane season. My guess is another 2017


At first it was set to be one, but now it's doing the opposite. The last two major hurricanes have been at least a cat 3 for over 72 hours each, unlike the first half of the season. We're now seeing long-lived, intense hurricanes. ACE is about double the average for this time and it has been historic. Half right----but it's like the 2017 in the Atlantic. :wink:

I know, quoting old posts is fun. :lol: 8-)

DANKENGINE420 wrote:duration: may 23-november 26
strongest storm: lane (c4)
weakest storm: carlotta
longest lasting: lane
shortest lasting: carlotta
power couple: kristy x lane (krane)*

*both are c4 long-trackers in september


You're right about Lane, but Hector and Lane seems to be the power couple. And about Lane, it's still alive xD


I kinda anticipated Lane would be a major hurricane, just like what DE420 had predicted.
What did you go for? I know plenty predicted names such as Gilma, John, Daniel and the "classics" on that list that would be strong but those I mentioned ended up weak! Aletta, Bud, Hector, Lane. Those were the majors. ;)
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#972 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:31 pm

18z GFS. Might be looking at another burst/outbreak. The background state this season is turning out to be more reminiscent of 14/15 than last year. ACE is going on good pace.

Image
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#973 Postby DioBrando » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:18z GFS. Might be looking at another burst/outbreak. The background state this season is turning out to be more reminiscent of 14/15 than last year. ACE is going on good pace.

Image

Don't get me wrong, but is it me or does 2014 and 2018 have parallels?

Hector --> Genevieve
Iselle --> Lane
Hernan --> weak John
Amanda/Christina --> Aletta/Bud

??
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#974 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:36 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Ntxw wrote:18z GFS. Might be looking at another burst/outbreak. The background state this season is turning out to be more reminiscent of 14/15 than last year. ACE is going on good pace.

http://i68.tinypic.com/t0oxzb.gif

Don't get me wrong, but is it me or does 2014 and 2018 have parallels?

Hector --> Genevieve
Iselle --> Lane
Hernan --> weak John
Amanda/Christina --> Aletta/Bud

??


Quite busy season. Like those two seasons I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest storm has yet to be named. Sometime in September or October I'd bet. West Coast of Mexico will likely have to keep an eye on things.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#975 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:36 pm

Yeah the EPAC continues to crank them out. The Atlantic may have to wait a bit longer until the EPAC finally slows. Put another way if conditions become favorable in the Atlantic, these waves wouldn’t make it to the EPAC to develop.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#976 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:38 pm

:uarrow: By this point 2014 also was about to bring Marie and there's no real comparison to Julio or Karina.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#977 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:42 pm

One of the reasons why the EPAC has been able to stay active is the favorable background state that has changed. Be it El Nino-esque forcing or +PMM or both it has been a complete reversal from the past 12-24 months.

Image
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#978 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:02 am

Image

18z GFS
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#979 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:37 am

0z GFS and Euro shows activity continuing in the EPAC.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#980 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:58 pm

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