2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Keep an eye on the Atlantic's Main Development Region during the first few days of September. A number of ECMWF EPS members are indicating risk for a strong African easterly wave to emerge off Africa and develop into a tropical cyclone. First sign of life I've seen in awhile.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032044304485761024

[shiny-pebble]

GFS showing ~4 weak phantom storms. At the moment, really justs means conditions will be somewhat favorable.

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[storminabox]

I have a feeling that once Lane is all said and done in the pacific, we will see the Atlantic begin to ramp up rather dramatically. The models seem to support that happening.

[Hammy]

GFS looks less favorable this run for multiple storms, the few low pressures that were there are much weaker so far out to 240 hours. But the low off Africa does look a bit stronger.

Edit: GFS shows only a weak system on the latest run out to 300 hours, but the frequency of runs showing activity (as well as the number they show) is going up at an unsteady rate.

[shiny-pebble]

GFS is awakening. Near the end of the run it has a CV tropical storm and a storm in the EPAC which dissiaptes over land but the remnants regenerate in the Gulf.

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[NDG]

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
More
Big changes in Atlantic SLP pattern indicate to me we are going to have a hurricane season this year, though as per pre season ideas, still below normal, But look at these 4 day increments and you can see a more active period is on the way with African wave train waking up
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1032224094027169793

[gatorcane]

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
More
Big changes in Atlantic SLP pattern indicate to me we are going to have a hurricane season this year, though as per pre season ideas, still below normal, But look at these 4 day increments and you can see a more active period is on the way with African wave train waking up
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 4027169793

Yeah I mentioned this last week and the timeframe of when these lower MSLPs is coming in. Looks like end of month is when we start to see them in the MDR which should coincide with an uptick in convection and possibly genesis:

[NDG]

Interesting trend by the CFS forecast for next month showing lowers MSLPs across the MDR and off of SE US along with lower windshear trend.

[Ivanhater]

006Z GFS shows a tropical storm in the gulf in the long range. At the very least, the models are waking up and showing a favorable pattern

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC with Cape Verde development in 4-5 days (edit: not saying that will happen it is the CMC after all but the idea is global models are detecting that conditions gradually are becoming more favorable):

[LarryWx]

12Z ECMWF with a strong area of low pressure near the Cabo Verde islands at 240 hours:

Consistent with the 12Z Euro operational, about 20% of the 50 EPS (~10) members have a TC form in the far E MDR ~Sept. 1 moving W to WNW. 4 of those 10 geneses go down to sub 990 mb (i.e., likely hurricanes). By day 15 (9/5), the TCs are mainly between 40W and 50W with some safely recurving N of 20N while others are still between 15N and 20N moving mainly WNW. None of these were on the 0Z EPS.

The above referenced more active 12Z EPS had gotten my and others’ attention and got Maue and Ventrice to tweet. However, today’s 0Z EPS then had significantly less activity regarding the potential Sept. 1 far E MDR system than what yesterday’s 12Z EPS had. Let’s see what today’s 12Z Euro/EPS shows.

[SoupBone]

Interesting trend by the CFS forecast for next month showing lowers MSLPs across the MDR and off of SE US along with lower windshear trend.

Is it just me or is the Bermuda High weaker and displaced further NE?

[Alyono]

006Z GFS shows a tropical storm in the gulf in the long range. At the very least, the models are waking up and showing a favorable pattern

that Gulf system is an EPAC system that crosses over. May not be Florence

[gatorcane]

Back to crickets on the 12Z GFS through Labor Day. The model continues to show more EPAC development though.

[TheStormExpert]

By the time something legitimate shows up on all the models it’ll be Thanksgiving!

[Hammy]

Euro back to no indication of anything imminent in the next ten days and beyond. It almost looks like the waves are continuing to come off much further north than normal, and the runs showing development have them coming off further south and then trending north.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro back to no indication of anything imminent in the next ten days and beyond. It almost looks like the waves are continuing to come off much further north than normal, and the runs showing development have them coming off further south and then trending north.

That’s what I’ve been noticing for the past month or so is that these tropical waves are coming off the west coast of Africa at about 15N or higher straight into the stable cool atmosphere that’s in place. If they were coming off below 15N and staying at a lower latitude until about 50-60W than start gaining latitude then they may have a chance.

[BobHarlem]

Euro back to no indication of anything imminent in the next ten days and beyond. It almost looks like the waves are continuing to come off much further north than normal, and the runs showing development have them coming off further south and then trending north.

I'm not so sure about that, check out Day 10 (sep 1st) over the Bahamas.

[Stormcenter]

We all know it's inevitable that something is going to eventually threaten the U.S. main land in Sept. 2018
It's only a matter of when and where. IMO

[stormlover2013]

Euro shows it again