Tropical Wave between Africa and Southern Windward Islands (Is INVEST 97L)

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A large area of disturbed weather has developed in association with
a tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system through
Friday while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the
weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

Reminds me a lot of 99L from about exactly a month ago.

[Kazmit]

This one's very low in latitude. It looks like it's supposed to gain a lot though as the "cone" is pointing towards the leeward islands.

[cycloneye]

[EasyTiger]

Wow, looks like the central and eastern Atlantic woke back up. That was a short nap. Should be interesting with the approaching fall air.

[weathaguyry]

Looks fairly stretched out for now, but it has some strong convection, definitely something to watch given the Windward/Leeward Islands could be in play

[bob rulz]

Any model support for this one?

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWO:

A large area of disturbed weather has developed in association with
a tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system through
Friday while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the
weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/0rD1P37.png

Hey another one. Let's wait and see what could really happen from this newly system. Never let your guard down islanders as we're always in the heart of this season. Hope nothing will form from this one at a such low latitude...

[EquusStorm]

Well this happened fast. Noticed the widespread convection but didn't figure anything would try organizing so fast. Got a broad spin to a suspicious area already.

[abajan]

Rotation showing up very clearly in this morning's visibles:



Definitely bears watching.

[abajan]

2 AM TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce, located several hundred miles south
of the Azores.

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disturbed weather more
than 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for some slow
development of this system through Friday while the disturbance
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the
weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[abajan]

Any model support for this one?

It's on the 06Z GFS. 00Z Euro showing basically nada. GFS long range showing another system too.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A large area of disturbed weather located a little more than 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical
wave moving westward about 10 to 15 mph. Some slight development is
possible during the next day or two before the environment becomes
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A surface trough is over the Atlantic along 45W from 12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt.
This trough may be developing a surface low. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection isfrom 04N-14N between 40W-50W.

[EquusStorm]

Might spin up a surprise depression really quickly. Wouldn't be the first time

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands has decreased some this morning.
Further development is becoming less likely since the environment is
becoming unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A surface trough is over the Atlantic along 46W/47W from 12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This trough may be developing a surface low. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-14N between
40W-50W.

[Nimbus]

Little vortex formed quite far south near 9.5N but its under shear and the LLC ran out west from under the convection.

[chaser1]

In spite of it's convection falling off, it appears to have quite a spin to it. At 10N or so and being a small and fairly vigorous low to mid level vort such as it is, that it might just take one more crack at popping off some decent convection shortly after dark. Understandably NHC see's little future for it assuming the dry air and stronger upper level winds to it's north and northwest. Any attempt at near term development would suggest an immediate Northwest motion and thus it's demise. Not sure if it were to start/sputter for a few days that perhaps it might track more westward and later find itself under less hostile conditions?

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97L is up